Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txtwister78]

NAM increasing totals of freezing rain from northern SA/Austin points NE. Sleet continues to be the more dominant precip type for DFW per the latest run.

[Yukon Cornelius]

19 this morning with very light moisture in the air. It’s not sticking to anything so hopefully it stays that way. Maybe we’ll be in the clear, or at least not too bad up this way.

[TropicalTundra]

Very light freezing drizzle here. 28 degrees

[GeauxTigers]

They cancelled my school district- Aubrey ISD, and sent us home. Drizzle\ mist freezing on contact making roads very slick. Wrecks all over. Passed what looked to be a rollover accident on Hwy 377 on way home.

[txtwister78]

Another trend to watch regarding the NAM is it "warms" temps a few more degrees Wednesday than its previous run had (28-29) to 31-32 during the freezing rain onslaught for DFW late afternoon into early evening. Hopefully that's a trend and it becomes just a cold rain by then. One model and one run so we shall see.

[orangeblood]

Convection all over central OK. It looks like that same impulse is now getting to closer to the Ablilene/WFalls corridor.

Moisture is surging from the south in Central Texas as well as entering from Northern Mexico. The trip home my not look like the trip out this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/LhOnGIj.gif

Yeah, models are showing PWAT values going over 1 inch plus with moisture streaming in from both the Gulf and Pacific...as has been discussed, if moisture is available to this magnitude these embedded (hard to model) disturbances are going to perform and some quite substantially.

[Gotwood]

Another trend to watch regarding the NAM is it "warms" temps a few more degrees Wednesday than its previous run had (28-29) to 31-32 during the freezing rain onslaught for DFW late afternoon into early evening. Hopefully that's a trend and it becomes just a cold rain by then. One model and one run so we shall see.

Looks like it still keeps temps below freezing till Thursday.

[funster]

28 degrees to start and lots of moisture moving in. This looks like it will be a total disaster.

[orangeblood]

Latest NAM trending towards RGEM with ice accumulation and now showing this event ending as snow on Thursday as ULL passes overhead

[TropicalTundra]

Is Georgetown getting snow? On RadarScope it’s showing light snow

[txtwister78]

Another trend to watch regarding the NAM is it "warms" temps a few more degrees Wednesday than its previous run had (28-29) to 31-32 during the freezing rain onslaught for DFW late afternoon into early evening. Hopefully that's a trend and it becomes just a cold rain by then. One model and one run so we shall see.

Looks like it still keeps temps below freezing till Thursday.

NAM 3km actually is a tad bit warmer and brings temps right at or above freezing 32-34 by 6 PM Wed. NAM 12km slightly colder 31-32 but definitely a few degrees warmer than the 6z for this latest run.

[Ntxw]

Another trend to watch regarding the NAM is it "warms" temps a few more degrees Wednesday than its previous run had (28-29) to 31-32 during the freezing rain onslaught for DFW late afternoon into early evening. Hopefully that's a trend and it becomes just a cold rain by then. One model and one run so we shall see.

Looks like it still keeps temps below freezing till Thursday.

Looks like some hints of upper air cooling on Thursday. May see a brief switch to snow. Ralph's Weather has been noting this and with ULL overhead would not be shocked if that happened.

[orangeblood]

Another trend to watch regarding the NAM is it "warms" temps a few more degrees Wednesday than its previous run had (28-29) to 31-32 during the freezing rain onslaught for DFW late afternoon into early evening. Hopefully that's a trend and it becomes just a cold rain by then. One model and one run so we shall see.

Looks like it still keeps temps below freezing till Thursday.

NAM 3km actually is a tad bit warmer and brings temps right at or above freezing 32-34 by 6 PM. NAM 12km slightly colder 31-32 but definitely a tad bit warmer than the 6z for this latest run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/t2m_f/1675080000/1675296000-cCcPblXPKa8.png

With ice/sleet accumulation of this magnitude, probably wise to cut down temps a few degrees from what's modeled

[Gotwood]

Another trend to watch regarding the NAM is it "warms" temps a few more degrees Wednesday than its previous run had (28-29) to 31-32 during the freezing rain onslaught for DFW late afternoon into early evening. Hopefully that's a trend and it becomes just a cold rain by then. One model and one run so we shall see.

Looks like it still keeps temps below freezing till Thursday.

NAM 3km actually is a tad bit warmer and brings temps right at or above freezing 32-34 by 6 PM Wed. NAM 12km slightly colder 31-32 but definitely a few degrees warmer than the 6z for this latest run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/t2m_f/1675080000/1675296000-cCcPblXPKa8.png

Oh gotcha I was looking at the 12km

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps are still running 3 or so degrees below even the latest NAM across most locations. For the Tyler area, models are showing 1-3 in of rain with temps near or below freezing. I think at this point it is safe to assume that temps will stay below freezing. I do expect temps to rise to or above freezing Thu but the dynamic upper low should have enough energy to cover many in a layer of snow. Then Fri we finally leave the ice box.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Maybe I spoke too soon. They just upgraded us to an advisory.

[Ntxw]

Temps are still running 3 or so degrees below even the latest NAM across most locations. For the Tyler area, models are showing 1-3 in of rain with temps near or below freezing. I think at this point it is safe to assume that temps will stay below freezing. I do expect temps to rise to or above freezing Thu but the dynamic upper low should have enough energy to cover many in a layer of snow. Then Fri we finally leave the ice box.

Potential snow signal next week.

[Brent]

Thundersleet moving in here

[txtwister78]

Looks like it still keeps temps below freezing till Thursday.

NAM 3km actually is a tad bit warmer and brings temps right at or above freezing 32-34 by 6 PM. NAM 12km slightly colder 31-32 but definitely a tad bit warmer than the 6z for this latest run.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/t2m_f/1675080000/1675296000-cCcPblXPKa8.png

With ice/sleet accumulation of this magnitude, probably wise to cut down temps a few degrees from what's modeled

Perhaps but those dewpoints really begin to rise (around 32) on Wednesday and so I wouldn't expect much in the way of "cooling" as the precip falls throughout the day into the evening hours but several more runs to go before that becomes apparent.

[Ntxw]

A little look back. Being generous and using 12z runs from yesterday. RGEM probably the better one, NAM underestimated some. The busts haven't just been because the cold moved in faster, but also upstream where it wasn't cold enough either. Global OPs not even worth mentioning from back then.