Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Brent]

Well that escalated quickly

[orangeblood]

A little look back. Being generous and using 12z runs from yesterday. RGEM probably the better one, NAM underestimated some. The busts haven't just been because the cold moved in faster, but also upstream where it wasn't cold enough either. Global OPs not even worth mentioning from back then.

https://i.imgur.com/zui0uys.png

https://i.imgur.com/k8373m5.png

https://i.imgur.com/1g2SABq.png

RGEM has this one covered, the others are chasing it! Its handling of low level cold is exceptional

[txtwister78]

12z WRF members.

[gpsnowman]

Well that escalated quickly

https://i.ibb.co/LYn350p/IMG-20230130-091153441.jpg

Nothing better than thundersleet with a Braums breakfast.

[Edwards Limestone]

34 with some "heavy drizzle" in Comal County...this is getting interesting already

[bubba hotep]

Temps are still running 3 or so degrees below even the latest NAM across most locations. For the Tyler area, models are showing 1-3 in of rain with temps near or below freezing. I think at this point it is safe to assume that temps will stay below freezing. I do expect temps to rise to or above freezing Thu but the dynamic upper low should have enough energy to cover many in a layer of snow. Then Fri we finally leave the ice box.

Potential snow signal next week.

Euro EPS has had a pretty strong signal for a significant Southern Plains storm around the 7/8th but temps will be the question.

[gpsnowman]

Radar slowly filling in. Not yet over DFW but Oklahoma, northwest of here, and even down south.

[Iceresistance]

Just heard Thundersleet, I instantly noped out inside the house when I tried to get the mail!

That is Thunder #1.

[Ntxw]

Radar slowly filling in. Not yet over DFW but Oklahoma, northwest of here, and even down south.

Both areas will congeal over NTX later today.

[cstrunk]

12z WRF members.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2023013012/046/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwarw/2023013012/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

That is concerning for my neck of the woods in Longview... we'll have to see if other models keep pushing the freezing line further SE as well...

[TropicalTundra]

Weather app telling me I’m getting flurries but I’m not seeing anything outside. Georgetown apparently getting snow showers

[dpep4]

NWS FTW still going conservative on travel impacts across DFW area, IMO they will be chasing the impacts as it's occurring.

Too many NWS offices continue their too often pattern of being the last to know. Or more accurately 'The last to admit'. Saturday nite midnight I checked the grids for NW San Antonio and it had 50's Mon-Wed, less than 24 hours before the front's arrival. Sun morn that had dropped to the 40's. Checked the forum and realized I should have been checking the local mets instead, KSAT was already forecasting the 30's. Last night at midnight NWS was still showing 40's, but airport temp was already 4 degrees below their forecast lines. Only if you read the forecast summary would you see that they were 'thinking about' dropping the forecast to colder later in the overnite's. Sure enough, this morning they're finally in the 30's, too late to help those trying to make plans yesterday.

Reading the forum I get that models have been continuing to trend colder/icier so forecasts could change. But as happed too often, some local stations were at least a day earlier on the accurate warnings (excepting one of the stations I checked that you can tell is pretty much automated crap on the weekend). Overall I think the NWS does an excellent job, it's amazing how much they get right compared to years ago. But too often now they can be slow for some hazardous events compared to the privates/local TV mets. Maybe I'll finally learn the lesson to rely on NWS only for day of forecasts or the severe center. Local TV has a better win streak.

Not a met nor an enthusiast, I'm just an end user. NWS fans can get defensive and make excuses, but for us this was a miss by Austin/SA for at least the SA local forecast.

[Iceresistance]

Sleet/Snow mix now, 17°F.

[Bhow]

12Z HRRR would be a nightmare for Austin

[dpep4]

Well that escalated quickly

https://i.ibb.co/LYn350p/IMG-20230130-091153441.jpg

Nothing better than thundersleet with a Braums breakfast.

I'll pass on the sleet, but need Braum's in San Antonio. Big Country breakfast is by far the best bargain in fast food breakfasts.

BTW, a big thanks to all in the forum for taking time to share the models, your insights, and your estimates. The minute by minute IMBY obsessions might sometimes get a little annoying, but overall there's a lot of good info and we do appreciate it. Keep up the good work.

[Edwards Limestone]

NWS FTW still going conservative on travel impacts across DFW area, IMO they will be chasing the impacts as it's occurring.

Too many NWS offices continue their too often pattern of being the last to know. Or more accurately 'The last to admit'. Saturday nite midnight I checked the grids for NW San Antonio and it had 50's Mon-Wed, less than 24 hours before the front's arrival. Sun morn that had dropped to the 40's. Checked the forum and realized I should have been checking the local mets instead, KSAT was already forecasting the 30's. Last night at midnight NWS was still showing 40's, but airport temp was already 4 degrees below their forecast lines. Only if you read the forecast summary would you see that they were 'thinking about' dropping the forecast to colder later in the overnite's. Sure enough, this morning they're finally in the 30's, too late to help those trying to make plans yesterday.

Reading the forum I get that models have been continuing to trend colder/icier so forecasts could change. But as happed too often, some local stations were at least a day earlier on the accurate warnings (excepting one of the stations I checked that you can tell is pretty much automated crap on the weekend). Overall I think the NWS does an excellent job, it's amazing how much they get right compared to years ago. But too often now they can be slow for some hazardous events compared to the privates/local TV mets. Maybe I'll finally learn the lesson to rely on NWS only for day of forecasts or the severe center. Local TV has a better win streak.

Not a met nor an enthusiast, I'm just an end user. NWS fans can get defensive and make excuses, but for us this was a miss by Austin/SA for at least the SA local forecast.

I agree. NWS is fantastic overall but the EWX office is often late to the party with these set ups. Between that and their twitter account often posting off topic items and complaining about cold and rain during a drought...meh.

[Brent]

This all happened in the last half hour. This is more white than the winter storm last week ever was

[Ntxw]

FYI height rises have slowed and will weaken through the day today. Most of us (aside from diurnal and nocturnal swings) have settled about where you will be for most of this event +/- a degree or two until moderation. The only areas that should see 5F or more drops is in the southern tier of the state where CAA continues from the north but will slow.

[gpsnowman]

Some small returns are popping up in the metro. I need some groceries so let's go Krogering before this really gets bad.

[Cerlin]

Norman has been getting on and off sleet showers for about 2 hours. Sleet has completely covered the roads and it’s slick. No cancellation from schools yet. Weird because we cancelled for 36 and wet flakes but not 18 and convective sleet showers.