Texas Winter 2022-2023

[FloppaHorn]

What is it showing?

Main show late tonight into tomorrow. Inches of sleet.

Getting a flizzard now.

Where? I have no clue how to read all those models, I'm just here for the info. It's helpful if there is more detailed info.

This is what I'm looking at. And, as previously mentioned, I'm far from the most weather savvy compared to most on here.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Click on "NAM". Select the run and precipitation type on the left. Hit play. From what I see, it had DFW getting a constant stream of freezing rain and sleet from this moment through the next 51 hours.

[txtwister78]

Nam definitely likes sleet as the predominant precip type across much of North TX into the DFW area over the next 48 hours. That would be better though for travel/traction as opposed to all that being freezing rain. Of course some heavier bands could cause some issues but definitely not the apocalyptic run that the RGEM has been showing for freezing rain.

[CaptinCrunch]

Nam definitely likes sleet as the predominant precip type across much of North TX into the DFW area over the next 48 hours. That would be better though for travel/traction as opposed to all that being freezing rain. Of course some heavier bands could cause some issues but definitely not the apocalyptic run that the RGEM has been showing for freezing rain.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675296000-4KGebW9WgBs.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675281600-NPiGjbunXfo.png

That's because temps through out the layers are colder than what was modeled and forecast.

[Ralph's Weather]

Definitely giving 12/2013 vibes.

[txtwister78]

Nam definitely likes sleet as the predominant precip type across much of North TX into the DFW area over the next 48 hours. That would be better though for travel/traction as opposed to all that being freezing rain. Of course some heavier bands could cause some issues but definitely not the apocalyptic run that the RGEM has been showing for freezing rain.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675296000-4KGebW9WgBs.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675281600-NPiGjbunXfo.png

That's because temps through out the layers are colder than what was modeled and forecast.

Exactly and that's an indicator of a colder temp profile upstairs which is why I said it's better than having that in the form of all freezing rain (travel wise)

[Brent]

Definitely one of the better pure sleet storms I've seen here but what really gets me about today is over the weekend the idea pushed today was light precip... That sleet was many things but light was not one of them tbh I'm kind of wondering if that was the peak here. Most of it looks to be south from here on out. Good luck down there

[Edwards Limestone]

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/?parms=2023013018-HRRR-SGP-winter-frzra-48-0-100

Can't post image here but 18Z HRRR frzg rain accumulations thru Wed = yikes

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1620160905639088128

[orangeblood]

Nam definitely likes sleet as the predominant precip type across much of North TX into the DFW area over the next 48 hours. That would be better though for travel/traction as opposed to all that being freezing rain. Of course some heavier bands could cause some issues but definitely not the apocalyptic run that the RGEM has been showing for freezing rain.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675296000-4KGebW9WgBs.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675281600-NPiGjbunXfo.png

A little more sleet which is good news but still not too far behind with Frz Rn predictions...1" plus amounts for some in North Texas. It's continuing to keep sub freezing temps around during heavy QPF 3rd round on Wednesday, that's when Power Lines issues could arise before temps get above freezing on, hopefully, Thursday!!!

[Quixotic]

Feb 2003 would be crippling. 3-5” of sleet?

[rwfromkansas]

My temp is actually at the lowest it's been all day, 25.5.

Had a bit of flurries, maybe that cooled the air a bit. Had been at 26.

But, no sign of any warm-up at all today or warm bust around here.

[txtwister78]

Nam definitely likes sleet as the predominant precip type across much of North TX into the DFW area over the next 48 hours. That would be better though for travel/traction as opposed to all that being freezing rain. Of course some heavier bands could cause some issues but definitely not the apocalyptic run that the RGEM has been showing for freezing rain.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675296000-4KGebW9WgBs.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675281600-NPiGjbunXfo.png

A little more sleet which is good news but still not too far behind with Frz Rn predictions...1" plus amounts for some in North Texas. It's continuing to keep sub freezing temps around during heavy QPF 3rd round on Wednesday, that's when Power Lines issues could arise before temps get above freezing on, hopefully, Thursday!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1675101600/1675404000-cJjOJCqypKM.png

I still think those Wednesday highs are too cold, but we shall see. A lot of low 40's showing up across Panhandle on Wed afternoon so no question about the moderation/"warming" trend at that point. Might be keeping temps just below freezing as a result of sleet accumulation. That would spare DFW the worst onslaught of freezing rain if that's off/too cold. Fingers crossed for some family up there. Definitely not rooting for the extreme.

[Edwards Limestone]

Interesting to compare total frzg accum maps NAM with HRRR.

[orangeblood]

Nam definitely likes sleet as the predominant precip type across much of North TX into the DFW area over the next 48 hours. That would be better though for travel/traction as opposed to all that being freezing rain. Of course some heavier bands could cause some issues but definitely not the apocalyptic run that the RGEM has been showing for freezing rain.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675296000-4KGebW9WgBs.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/sleet_total/1675101600/1675281600-NPiGjbunXfo.png

A little more sleet which is good news but still not too far behind with Frz Rn predictions...1" plus amounts for some in North Texas. It's continuing to keep sub freezing temps around during heavy QPF 3rd round on Wednesday, that's when Power Lines issues could arise before temps get above freezing on, hopefully, Thursday!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1675101600/1675404000-cJjOJCqypKM.png

I still think those Wednesday highs are too cold, but we shall see. A lot of low 40's showing up across Panhandle on Wed afternoon so no question about the moderation/"warming" trend at that point. Might be keeping temps just below freezing as a result of sleet accumulation. That would spare DFW the worst onslaught of freezing rain if that's off/too cold. Fingers crossed for some family up there. Definitely not rooting for the extreme.

Check out the surface wind field though...Panhandle warming due to downsloping west wind direction, North Texas maintains cold advection out of the North thru Thursday. It's relentless and what makes this cold air pocket unique/something you don't see that often. The cold dome is literally stuck over the state and doesn't erode until west wind kicks in late Thursday

[Ntxw]

A little more sleet which is good news but still not too far behind with Frz Rn predictions...1" plus amounts for some in North Texas. It's continuing to keep sub freezing temps around during heavy QPF 3rd round on Wednesday, that's when Power Lines issues could arise before temps get above freezing on, hopefully, Thursday!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/frzr_total/1675101600/1675404000-cJjOJCqypKM.png

I still think those Wednesday highs are too cold, but we shall see. A lot of low 40's showing up across Panhandle on Wed afternoon so no question about the moderation/"warming" trend at that point. Might be keeping temps just below freezing as a result of sleet accumulation. That would spare DFW the worst onslaught of freezing rain if that's off/too cold. Fingers crossed for some family up there. Definitely not rooting for the extreme.

Check out the surface wind field though...Panhandle warming due to downsloping west wind direction, North Texas maintains cold advection out of the North thru Thursday. It's relentless and what makes this cold air pocket unique/something you don't see that often. The cold dome is literally stuck over the state and doesn't erode until west wind kicks in on Friday

Temperature inversion. They can be stubborn. You can recall a couple days ago even with the change in tune, a little below freezing was the idea. Yet we have been in the danger range 27-28 all day. That's not a little bit of freezing temps.

[Edwards Limestone]

[rwfromkansas]

Temp dropping pretty rapidly now at 24. Did not expect this.

Thought we would be stable.

[DallasAg]

Looks like maybe things are winding down a bit? The steady fetch of convection to the SW of the metroplex has dried up to a degree. Folks W, NW, N, and NE of the metroplex still have a few hours for this wave to pass.

Are we thinking freezing drizzle takes over for a while before the big event or all dry and a chance for some drying/sublimation?

[txtwister78]

:double:

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2023013018/084/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

If that ends up being right "I'm buying" next time I'm up in Dallas for the special Storm 2k get together. Lol.

Yeah let's just hope that's not right.

[lrak]

From Brownsville NWS "While forecast
soundings from the NAM show a nose of below zero colder temperatures
just above the deck across the northern sections, freezing rain
probability remains low and not enough to justify mention in the
deterministic forecast. It is worth noting that the probability is
not zero, however. Bottom line for the short term forecast? Look for
cold, dreary, gray, and moist (wetting) weather.

Brrr....