Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

Now to see what the 00z models spit out. The off-hour hi-res models have decreased QPF across DFW but let's see if that is a trend or just a data gap issue.

[Quixotic]

Watching Brownwood for implications downstream.

[Quixotic]

Predominant precip was sleet but had snow mixing in towards the end. Don’t see any reason to think it will be anything else until temps rise. Sitting at 25 which is colder than this morning.

[WacoWx]

28.4 imby.

freezing drizzle/mist returns continue to form on radar. I can hear it on the trees now.

[Ntxw]

28.4 imby.

freezing drizzle/mist returns continue to form on radar. I can hear it on the trees now.

We've been below freezing for 25 hours+. Crazy as it sounds but we may be below freezing longer than the December cold snap, even though that had lower temperatures.

[Ntxw]

Now to see what the 00z models spit out. The off-hour hi-res models have decreased QPF across DFW but let's see if that is a trend or just a data gap issue.

0z HRRR first, some convective stuff early morning, then most qpf is south and east for the heaviest. Austin is clobbered with ZR. By evening the qpf band of thor sets up shop. Slightly NW of the 18z run.

[Quixotic]

28.4 imby.

freezing drizzle/mist returns continue to form on radar. I can hear it on the trees now.

We've been below freezing for 25 hours+. Crazy as it sounds but we may be below freezing longer than the December cold snap, even though that had lower temperatures.

I keep going back to 2003. Wasn’t forecasted until after front passage. If we have precip all day, we stay below freezing tomorrow. If not, then we bust. Sort of. Today was more than I expected. 2003 after the 3”-5” sleet storm, clouds never broke and we dropped further and got the thaw refreeze for three days. If it gets convective tomorrow I think we have a similar potential.

[txtwister78]

HRRR definitely trending further south (along with RAP) with freezing rain threat Tuesday late afternoon into Wed morning for the northern SA-AUS corridor points east of 35. Unbelievable drop off for DFW now. Little to no sleet either for N Texas. Wow! Crazy run but trending further south with core of precip S and SE of Metroplex. Great news for that area should this hold.

[Ntxw]

28.4 imby.

freezing drizzle/mist returns continue to form on radar. I can hear it on the trees now.

We've been below freezing for 25 hours+. Crazy as it sounds but we may be below freezing longer than the December cold snap, even though that had lower temperatures.

I keep going back to 2003. Wasn’t forecasted until after front passage. If we have precip all day, we stay below freezing tomorrow. If not, then we bust. Sort of. Today was more than I expected. 2003 after the 3”-5” sleet storm, clouds never broke and we dropped further and got the thaw refreeze for three days. If it gets convective tomorrow I think we have a similar potential.

HRRR keeps us where we are, if anything the western cold pushes east slightly ever so. Pocket change though. I don't see us getting any warmer, the cold air cannot rise and moderate.

[Gotwood]

28.4 imby.

freezing drizzle/mist returns continue to form on radar. I can hear it on the trees now.

We've been below freezing for 25 hours+. Crazy as it sounds but we may be below freezing longer than the December cold snap, even though that had lower temperatures.

I keep going back to 2003. Wasn’t forecasted until after front passage. If we have precip all day, we stay below freezing tomorrow. If not, then we bust. Sort of. Today was more than I expected. 2003 after the 3”-5” sleet storm, clouds never broke and we dropped further and got the thaw refreeze for three days. If it gets convective tomorrow I think we have a similar potential.

Yeah I think for those of us below 28 will be primarily sleet.

[Bhow]

Austin gets hammered on 00z HRRR with over an inch of freezing rain but with temps 31-32 throughout the run you have to wonder how much ice accretion we see

[Ntxw]

Austin gets hammered on 00z HRRR with over an inch of freezing rain but with temps 31-32 throughout the run you have to wonder how much ice accretion we see

Porta's post earlier was a great write. DFW is often on that edge and we bust so many times at that range especially in the population centers. You do need below 30F to really get the most out of it but above it's the elevated surfaces.

[Ntxw]

HRRR definitely trending further south (along with RAP) with freezing rain threat Tuesday late afternoon into Wed morning for the northern SA-AUS corridor points east of 35. Unbelievable drop off for DFW now. Little to no sleet either for N Texas. Wow! Crazy run but trending further south with core of precip S and SE of Metroplex. Great news for that area should this hold.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/frzr_total/1675123200/1675263600-ymbo7IZzFQs.png

What this tells me is that the cold is hanging stronger and continues to be underestimated. The QPF is straggling the warmer dews. Also potential when the large qpf shield comes out tomorrow night and Weds morning will be more frozen and lasting longer than prior thoughts.

[Gotwood]

Austin gets hammered on 00z HRRR with over an inch of freezing rain but with temps 31-32 throughout the run you have to wonder how much ice accretion we see

Porta's post earlier was a great write. DFW is often on that edge and we bust so many times at that range especially in the population centers. You do need below 30F to really get the most out of it but above it's the elevated surfaces.

Did you go through the Hour by hour on the HRRR run? Hour 30 it’s running straight through DFW then it starts to tail off to the west. Any reason for this? Is it the track of the ULL?

[Ntxw]

Austin gets hammered on 00z HRRR with over an inch of freezing rain but with temps 31-32 throughout the run you have to wonder how much ice accretion we see

Porta's post earlier was a great write. DFW is often on that edge and we bust so many times at that range especially in the population centers. You do need below 30F to really get the most out of it but above it's the elevated surfaces.

Did you go through the Hour by hour on the HRRR run? Hour 30 it’s running straight through DFW then it starts to tail off to the west. Any reason for this? Is it the track of the ULL?

I wouldn't get caught up on it too much, it changes run to run. We won't know until the convection develops.

[rwfromkansas]

It’s weird that it was trending worse just a little earlier and now not so much for DFW.

Either way it’s bad enough schools will be closed tomorrow and probably Wednesday. Thursday maybe though kind of doubt it now.

Don’t want a big ice storm anyway. But, I want more sleet/snow.

[Ntxw]

It’s weird that it was trending worse just a little earlier and now not so much for DFW.

Either way it’s bad enough schools will be closed tomorrow and probably Wednesday. Thursday maybe though kind of doubt it now.

Don’t want a big ice storm anyway. But, I want more sleet/snow.

Don't worry, NAM gives you a crush job in the morning .

But I do agree, visually freezing rain isn't appealing. Just looks like regular cold rain falling.

[GeauxTigers]

It’s weird that it was trending worse just a little earlier and now not so much for DFW.

Either way it’s bad enough schools will be closed tomorrow and probably Wednesday. Thursday maybe though kind of doubt it now.

Don’t want a big ice storm anyway. But, I want more sleet/snow.

Me too!!

[orangeblood]

Porta's post earlier was a great write. DFW is often on that edge and we bust so many times at that range especially in the population centers. You do need below 30F to really get the most out of it but above it's the elevated surfaces.

Did you go through the Hour by hour on the HRRR run? Hour 30 it’s running straight through DFW then it starts to tail off to the west. Any reason for this? Is it the track of the ULL?

I wouldn't get caught up on it too much, it changes run to run. We won't know until the convection develops.

Agreed, we go thru this almost every winter storm - extended HRRR will drive you crazy run to run at this range….can get lost in the weeds past 12 hrs. Much better inside 12.

[Gotwood]

Porta's post earlier was a great write. DFW is often on that edge and we bust so many times at that range especially in the population centers. You do need below 30F to really get the most out of it but above it's the elevated surfaces.

Did you go through the Hour by hour on the HRRR run? Hour 30 it’s running straight through DFW then it starts to tail off to the west. Any reason for this? Is it the track of the ULL?

I wouldn't get caught up on it too much, it changes run to run. We won't know until the convection develops.

Roger that. NWS says it gets all the way to 30 tomorrow. Currently 23 lol.