BoB: Ex Well-Marked Low - 90B

[Subtrop]

90B INVEST 230124 1800 5.0N 90.0E IO 15 0

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4N
94.8E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291513Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25
KTS) TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSESSED LLC, WITH POCKETS OF 30 KT
WIND BARBS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (27-28 C), AND OFFSET WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS ARE NOT
SHOWING SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, AN AMPLIFIED MADDEN-
JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS
PRESENT AND CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. THAT ALONG
WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL WARRANTS A
CLOSE EYE TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.2N 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS. A 300345Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE,
FRAGMENTED BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SST VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ADDITIONALLY, THE ONGOING MJO WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.2N 82.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 291.7 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302221Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED, GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SST,
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A FAVORABLE MJO SIGNAL WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE WEST AND MAKE LANDFALL
OVER SRI LANKA WITHIN 36 HOURS. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

The invest was upgraded to a tropical depression by IMD early yesterday.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5N 84.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 83.3E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 312208Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY MODERATE (20-25KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH SRI LANKA
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SST AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90B WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
MAKE LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA NEAR TAU 24 AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]