Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6301 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 14, 2023 5:29 pm

Slight haze from the dust, but things are going to get crazier. :double:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6302 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 14, 2023 7:39 pm

Apparently a horrible dust storm in OK and parts of North Texas. Very rare this far east.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6303 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 14, 2023 7:59 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Apparently a horrible dust storm in OK and parts of North Texas. Very rare this far east.

Yeah, I managed to take a video from it, it will be posted on YT later. It's been a long time since that happened to me!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6304 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:18 pm

This is the definition of Spring, Summer, and Winter all in one day in Oklahoma! :lol:

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https://s3.gifyu.com/images/Wednesday-is-going-to-be-crazy.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6305 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:22 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Maybe no real cold dump into the Southern Plains? Both the GEFS and Euro EPS have a ridiculous ridge over the Gulf and CA in the longer range, with the mean trough off the West Coast resulting in a raging zonal jet. A massive SSW is underway, but I haven't really seen anything that convinces me that anyone knows how that impacts the longer range... So who knows :double:


I think this setup has decent potential …massive long duration cold buildup in source region to tap into, all you need is a S/W to break off across the southwest US - it’ll likely take the more southerly route across our region as the cold builds


This is a decent loading pattern at the end of the 00z Euro EPS. It set's the stage for ridging to potentially retrograde out of Northern Europe and into the NAO region. Then if the Pacific can pop a -EPO the first of March could be very interesting.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023021200/eps_z500a_nhem_61.png


Ensembles today are starting to hint at the return high lat blocking in the NAO region. Need a well-timed EPO, and all of that cold air in WCAN will only have one place to go come March 5-7.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6306 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:38 pm

Here is the video! It's indeed a Dust Storm for me.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/jKa9qCJFLC0[/youtube]
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6307 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 15, 2023 10:48 am

I'm now becoming more weather aware for later today because the Dry Line with the Triple Point is trending further west.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6308 Postby cstrunk » Wed Feb 15, 2023 11:14 am

Should see a few good supercells develop in SC/SE OK and extreme N TX this evening with some tornado potential.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6309 Postby Edwards Limestone » Wed Feb 15, 2023 11:49 am

Any of you guys know how I can get the storm2K supporter orange tag? I only give $1 every month but hey, it's something! :spam:
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The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6310 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 15, 2023 11:56 am

Edwards Limestone wrote:Any of you guys know how I can get the storm2K supporter orange tag? I only give $1 every month but hey, it's something! :spam:

You can PM one of the admins and you can show the donation transaction ID to them as proof that you donated to S2K.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6311 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 15, 2023 12:39 pm

81 degrees for the high yesterday was so much more pleasant than Valentine's Day in 2021 when the high was in the mid 20s. That cold air can just stay up in Canada where it belongs. Hopefully, we've seen our last freeze of the winter. Time for a bike ride this afternoon. Up to 75 deg at 11:30am.
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6312 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Feb 15, 2023 12:55 pm

NAM and HRRR both have some hope for severe in DFW if you want that. But, the storms don't appear too impressive on the radar simulations. That can be misleading though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6313 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 15, 2023 2:30 pm

Crazy Temperature difference right now

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/current.TAIR.grad-1.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6314 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Feb 15, 2023 2:34 pm


Wow no kidding. Only a 57 degree swing from the Panhandle to the Red River.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6315 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 15, 2023 2:46 pm

gpsnowman wrote:

Wow no kidding. Only a 57 degree swing from the Panhandle to the Red River.

10°F difference from Kingfisher to me and from me to Ada
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6316 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Feb 15, 2023 3:21 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:NAM and HRRR both have some hope for severe in DFW if you want that. But, the storms don't appear too impressive on the radar simulations. That can be misleading though.


Looks to me like things are more in Oklahoma then NTX last few runs.

But who knows...... could change last minute.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6317 Postby Gotwood » Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:15 pm

Well they just issued a STW for North Tx didn’t expect that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6318 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Feb 15, 2023 5:24 pm

Gotwood wrote:Well they just issued a STW for North Tx didn’t expect that.


I wonder if it's conditional? HRRR looks like nothing will happen last few runs. Cap is strong but I suppose if one breaks it could be bad?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6319 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:08 pm

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6320 Postby cstrunk » Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:26 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Gotwood wrote:Well they just issued a STW for North Tx didn’t expect that.


I wonder if it's conditional? HRRR looks like nothing will happen last few runs. Cap is strong but I suppose if one breaks it could be bad?


Agree. I don't think we'll see much south of the Red River. Can't they extend a watch box? I feel like I've seen that before. I'm not trying to criticize, but I would have limited it to the counties along the Red River and northward. IF something did break farther south, extend the watch when that looks more likely.
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