Winter Weather Discussion
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South Texas Storms
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#6421 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:47 pm
Bhow wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:Bhow wrote:Still have a lot to learn obviously but in all of these recent systems the storms always blow up east of us although dew points are always 60+ so seems there’s plenty of moisture.
Yeah these storm systems haven't been digging far enough south. Not enough lift to overcome the capping inversion. Moisture is rarely an issue here. A lack of lift is the primary problem for us.
So why aren’t those systems too far north for areas further east but on the same longitude? Those storms always cut northeast so if there’s not enough lift here you would think there’s even less lift in the southeast as the low lifts further north.
They have a weaker capping inversion due to there not being a desert west of them. We have a stronger cap to overcome due to the Mexican desert.
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Iceresistance
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#6422 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:51 pm
News 9 (KWTV) has mentioned the possibility of a nasty outbreak on Sunday, the map they showed does include Northern Texas.
Last edited by
Iceresistance on Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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ANYTHING is possible!
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bubba hotep
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#6423 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:16 pm
Iceresistance wrote:News 9 (KWTV) has mentioned the possibility of a nasty outbreak on Sunday, the may they showed does include Northern Texas.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Brent
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#6424 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:16 am
0z GFS with 30 inches of snow near Kansas City
But yes Sunday is looking interesting
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Cpv17
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#6425 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:18 am
Brent wrote:0z GFS with 30 inches of snow near Kansas City
But yes Sunday is looking interesting
Now it has nothing for them and snow back in Texas on the 6z lol
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Iceresistance
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#6426 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:34 am
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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Yukon Cornelius
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#6427 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:41 am
Made it down to 27. If I remember correctly, the forecasted low wasn’t anywhere near that cold.
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Ntxw
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#6428 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:46 am
Single digits in Oklahoma and TX panhandles.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Iceresistance
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#6429 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:52 am
Ntxw wrote:Single digits in Oklahoma and TX panhandles.
It got down to 0 north of Guymon, OK
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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cheezyWXguy
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#6430 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:53 am
Still a ways out I know, but when was the last time okc was bullseye’d like that?
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Cpv17
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#6431 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:26 am
cheezyWXguy wrote:Still a ways out I know, but when was the last time okc was bullseye’d like that?
I was thinking the same thing. It’s pretty rare lately for that area to be in the bullseye instead of the Dixie.
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Iceresistance
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#6432 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:33 am
Cpv17 wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:Still a ways out I know, but when was the last time okc was bullseye’d like that?
I was thinking the same thing. It’s pretty rare lately for that area to be in the bullseye instead of the Dixie.
Especially the time of the year!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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wxman57
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#6433 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 11:34 am
12Z GFS back to "never mind" about any snow in NE TX. Meanwhile, had a nice low of 70 here yesterday but only hit 82 for the high due to some morning rain.
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Edwards Limestone
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#6434 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:29 pm
We still need lots of moisture down here in the TX Hill Country. If it's gonna be this hot/humid, can we get some rain?
How's SOI look guys? Any relief in sight?
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The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Iceresistance
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#6435 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:30 pm
I hope so, the SOI is also looking more promising, were on a 3 day streak of daily -SOI values, today is just above -17.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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wxman57
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#6436 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:32 pm
The pattern is not good for Hill Country rainfall. Pacific fronts won't run into enough moisture until they reach east Texas. Cold front appears to have stalled north of Houston. It's 83F here and in the 50s-60s from Waco to DFW. Time for a bike ride...
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Brent
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#6437 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:55 pm
Still only 39 here... Way colder than forecast
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Iceresistance
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#6438 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:35 pm
Brent wrote:Still only 39 here... Way colder than forecast
40 for me, it was expected to be 44 today.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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#6439 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:36 pm
I need to point this out because Northern Texas and parts of Central and Western Oklahoma could have Freezing Rain/Drizzle tonight, this is being picked up by the Mesoscale models.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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#6440 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:43 pm
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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