Texas Spring 2023

[Edwards Limestone]

Let's GOOO!

https://twitter.com/spahn711/status/1630369976354832385

Is it me or will that water tower leave a hole in the radar?

Seems like odd placement.

It'll be installed at the top of the water tower I believe.

[Ntxw]

Looks like Larry Cosgrove is going warmer for March and basically saying winter is done.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023022812/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Some ensemble guidance has trended more towards a colder pattern by the middle part of March, likely due to the SSW event a few weeks ago. In fact, the 12z Euro Ensemble has the 1 inch mean snowfall contour down to Abilene over the next 15 days. I don't think winter is over for us yet.

This works with Springs that transition to El Nino, in particular within a broader -PDO regime. They tend to be chilly. Years like 1963, 1997, 2002, and 2009 most featured a cold March or April or both. The atmospheric circulations that drives the transition to +ENSO tends to do this.

What happens the next two months has a big impact on Summer. Last year March and April were heavily ++SOI with lots of warmth and dry periods that led to a strong feedback. We can do the opposite if it is cool and wet.

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like Larry Cosgrove is going warmer for March and basically saying winter is done.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023022812/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I will take it. How much do I have to pay?

I was confused a bit at Larry's post since I swore before he was on board with a cooler March.

[cstrunk]

Let's GOOO!

https://twitter.com/spahn711/status/1630369976354832385

That's great news - but dang, Hugo, OK would have been a much better location to fill that radar hole, IMO!

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1630670393231958018

[Iceresistance]

Let's GOOO!

https://twitter.com/spahn711/status/1630369976354832385

That's great news - but dang, Hugo, OK would have been a much better location to fill that radar hole, IMO!

I thought of that too, but Durant is larger compared to Hugo. They had the money to do it.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1630572982555795456

[bubba hotep]

From mid-Feb in the Winter thread:

-NAO that I talked about a few days ago is finally starting to show up in modeling. Then the Euro Weeklies also take the AO & WPO negative in March. The only thing holding back an Epic March is the EPO. I think we will get an EPO push and we should see 1-2 weeks of legit winter wx in March.

With this kind of EPO dump, I would expect temps to trend colder as we get closer to the event. The EPS is also starting to light up the 12-14th with a decent snow signal for the Southern Plains.

[Cpv17]

From mid-Feb in the Winter thread:

-NAO that I talked about a few days ago is finally starting to show up in modeling. Then the Euro Weeklies also take the AO & WPO negative in March. The only thing holding back an Epic March is the EPO. I think we will get an EPO push and we should see 1-2 weeks of legit winter wx in March.

With this kind of EPO dump, I would expect temps to trend colder as we get closer to the event. The EPS is also starting to light up the 12-14th with a decent snow signal for the Southern Plains.

https://i.ibb.co/0G49xcC/MarchEPO.png

Dang! That’s impressive.

[cheezyWXguy]

Notable shifts west with the 18z gfs, 0z nam and 0z hrrr on Thursday’s system. Skew Ts/hodographs look sufficient now for at least isolated tornadoes and more than sufficient for large hail in central and eastern Texas

[txtwister78]

From mid-Feb in the Winter thread:

-NAO that I talked about a few days ago is finally starting to show up in modeling. Then the Euro Weeklies also take the AO & WPO negative in March. The only thing holding back an Epic March is the EPO. I think we will get an EPO push and we should see 1-2 weeks of legit winter wx in March.

With this kind of EPO dump, I would expect temps to trend colder as we get closer to the event. The EPS is also starting to light up the 12-14th with a decent snow signal for the Southern Plains.

https://i.ibb.co/0G49xcC/MarchEPO.png

That would be something. Definitely a much colder signal relative to the averages per the Euro ENS, but outside of the Panhandle region, I just think it's going to take that and probably a little more in the form of a dynamic driven ULL in order to deliver a real March Madness Texas "Lotto" snow shocker in the middle of March, but hey I hope it happens. I'd love to be wrong on that front in a few weeks. Talk about ending/transitioning out of three consecutive years of a La Nina with a bang.

[HockeyTx82]

Well I guess we can expect doomsday tomorrow. Looks pretty bad for a large swath of Texas.

Can't wait for all of the apocalyptic model runs to be blasted out.

[rwfromkansas]

Um, severe storms this morning? Wasn’t expecting rain at all.

[Iceresistance]

Moderate Risk tomorrow just east of DFW.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

[WacoWx]

Radar is down in FW, but it sure looks ugly outside in Las Colinas. Thunder off in the distance is persistent.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

Thunderstorm Watch up for DFW, I didn't think anyone expected that.

[HockeyTx82]

Thunderstorm Watch up for DFW, I didn't think anyone expected that.

OMG it's happening