SPAC: JUDY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/1630726742972276736

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/1630726742972276736

That station recorded 90 mph as a conversion from 146 km/h

[doomhaMwx]

The BOM's sea level monitoring station in Port Vila recorded a minimum pressure of 961.1 hPa at 22:20 UTC. No significant winds were recorded but that station also recorded unrealistically low winds during previous cyclones.

https://i.imgur.com/8mmZOvn.png

Link to station: http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd/q1c7o0hj48yu/?station_number=200857

Is that pressure at sea level?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 952HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2
SOUTH 168.6 EAST AT 010000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.2S 168.6E at 010000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 105 KNOTS
BY 011200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 165 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 175 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.4S 169.7E AT 011200 UTC
AND NEAR 22.6S 171.1E AT 020000 UTC.

[cycloneye]

Cat 4.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 SOUTH 169.4
EAST AT 010600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 19.3S 169.4E at 010600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS
BY 011800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 165 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 175 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

[WAcyclone]

The BOM's sea level monitoring station in Port Vila recorded a minimum pressure of 961.1 hPa at 22:20 UTC. No significant winds were recorded but that station also recorded unrealistically low winds during previous cyclones.

https://i.imgur.com/8mmZOvn.png

Link to station: http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd/q1c7o0hj48yu/?station_number=200857

Is that pressure at sea level?

It is a sea level monitoring station so even if it is station pressure it should be pretty close to sea level pressure.

[cycloneye]

Has begun to weaken.

[doomhaMwx]

The BOM's sea level monitoring station in Port Vila recorded a minimum pressure of 961.1 hPa at 22:20 UTC. No significant winds were recorded but that station also recorded unrealistically low winds during previous cyclones.

https://i.imgur.com/8mmZOvn.png

Link to station: http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd/q1c7o0hj48yu/?station_number=200857

Is that pressure at sea level?

It is a sea level monitoring station so even if it is station pressure it should be pretty close to sea level pressure.

Found some stats for this station, and interestingly, that 961.1 mb would actually be the second lowest pressure ever recorded in this station in the last 30 years. In fact, there have only been three occasions during this period that pressure in this station went below 980mb. This shows that strong cyclones passing near/over Port Vila are very rare.

PAM 2015 - 942.9 mb
JUDY 2023 - 961.1 mb
IVY 2004 - 961.7 mb

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerrickHerndon2/status/1630950156613869568

[cycloneye]

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 948HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.1S 171.5E AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 195 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 125 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 145 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD HOWEVER EYE NO LONGER DISCERNABLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SYSTEM CENTRE LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE WITH
GOOD OUT FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH HIGH SHEAR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO
300HPA. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE, WITH CENTRE EMBEDDED IN
CMG, YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PAT IS 4.0. FT BASED ON MET, THUS
YIELDING T4.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS.

[cycloneye]

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 957HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.4S 172.6E AT 020000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI
VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY CENTRE 957HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3 SOUTH 173.8
EAST AT 020600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 23.3S 173.8E at 020600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
030600 UTC.

[cycloneye]

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 967HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.3S 175.0E AT 021200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 155 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 155 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INFILTRATES CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH
PARTIAL EXPOSURE OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE WITH
GOOD OUT FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH HIGH SHEAR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO
300HPA. SST IS AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN W, YIELDS A DT OF 5.0.
MET AND PAT IS 4.5. FT BASED ON MET, THUS YIELDING
T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS.