Texas Spring 2023

[rwfromkansas]

The regular NAM keeps it warm tomorrow night, so I would toss out the high-res dropping temps to the 50s.

[Brent]

I know everyone is watching tomorrow but I can't take my eyes off next week... Just gets colder and colder as the week goes on. Spring what?

[Texas Snowman]

Spring Cancel!!!

I know everyone is watching tomorrow but I can't take my eyes off next week... Just gets colder and colder as the week goes on. Spring what?

[Texas Snowman]

“Alex, I’ll take “Things you don’t want to see in your backyard during the spring!” for $100.”

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1631124756605943811?s=20

[txtwister78]

Big hailer southwest of SA. Was moving NE toward SA but over the last few scans it appears to be taking more of a right turn. Not good for those communities in the path.

[gpsnowman]

Spring Cancel!!!

I know everyone is watching tomorrow but I can't take my eyes off next week... Just gets colder and colder as the week goes on. Spring what?

I like it. Spring cancel. If only we could not jokingly say that about the hell of summer. Bring it while we can cause it is over soon.

[rwfromkansas]

“Alex, I’ll take “Things you don’t want to see in your backyard during the spring!” for $100.”

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1631124756605943811?s=20

I was going back home to Kansas last year and was watching his stream getting gas during a big severe day. He was maybe 5 minutes ahead of me stopped off 35. I could have stalked him to meet him.

[ElectricStorm]

Look at that hail core on that supercell SW of San Antonio

Barely even in the general t-storm area, has a destructive tag on it and warned for 3 inch hail but I feel like it could be larger than that.

[txtwister78]

Look at that hail core on that supercell SW of San Antonio

Barely even in the general t-storm area, has a destructive tag on it and warned for 3 inch hail but I feel like it could be larger than that.

Insane hail spike.

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1631147429591646208

[gpsnowman]

Look at that hail core on that supercell SW of San Antonio

Barely even in the general t-storm area, has a destructive tag on it and warned for 3 inch hail but I feel like it could be larger than that.

Insane hail spike.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqL-Ay2WYAAs0Fo?format=jpg&name=900x900

Seems like this Wednesday system has overperformed across the state. Under-forecasted severity here in DFW and now in central Texas. Txtwister mentioned this in an earlier post for San Antonio. March could be a wild month for extremes.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/radaromega/status/1631146530752045056

[Brent]

Just had a HiGH of 39 on TV here there weren't that many days in February that cold here

[dpep4]

Insane hail spike.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqL-Ay2WYAAs0Fo?format=jpg&name=900x900

Dilley Dilley!

Could be some dents in the Bud castle's roof....

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1631164750544470016

[ElectricStorm]

Day 1 outlook is out, some pretty strong wording in there.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears likely across parts
of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions today
into tonight. Widespread damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes
are all expected. A few long-lived, intense tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern
Plains today and approach the lower MS Valley tonight while a
surface low rapidly intensifies over the Arklatex. Multiple rounds
of severe thunderstorms are expected through the period, with an
initial round of storms moving across the Arklatex during the late
afternoon and a second round moving across the Arklatex into the
Lower MS Valley during the night. Ahead of the surface low, an
intensifying low-level jet beneath unseasonably strong mid-level
flow will promote very strong deep-layer ascent/shear atop rich
low-level moisture, encouraging significant severe weather in
association with both rounds of storms. A regional severe
thunderstorm outbreak is expected, including the potential for
damaging tornadoes.

...Central Texas into the Mid-South - Daytime...
Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the
period across eastern TX into southern AR, toward northern AL along
a diffuse effective warm front, delineating the northward extent of
the warm sector. As the mid-level trough traverses the southern
Rockies, rapid surface cyclogenesis should ensue across TX,
supporting the vigorous northward advection of rich low-level
moisture into eastern OK/AR. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will
overspread upper 60s F surface dewpoints, contributing to 1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE across the warm sector. During the day, a 30+ kt
low-level jet will be situated across the southern Plains,
overspread by 50+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow, resulting in
widespread 50-75 kt effective bulk shear across the warm sector.
Appreciable low-level shear will also be present, with hodographs
gradually elongating/curving throughout the day. With the mid-level
trough/300 mb jet streak still lagging to the west, some questions
remain in terms of how widespread diurnal warm-sector coverage will
be. Nonetheless, the eastward advance of a merging dryline/pacific
front will encourage at least isolated supercell storms during the
afternoon into early evening, with supercells initiating across
central TX into southeast OK, progressing eastward into the
Arklatex. Severe gusts, large hail (including 2+ inch stones) and
tornadoes are all possible. Any supercell that can become sustained
within the warm sector may produce strong tornadoes.

...Arklatex into the Mid-South - Nightime...
By evening, the mid-level trough will become negatively tilted and
will accelerate toward the Lower MS Valley, with the surface low
also expected to undergo rapid intensification. Impressive vertical
wind profiles will develop as a result of the deep-layer mass
response to the approaching trough, with a regional but volatile
severe weather setup taking place. As the Pacific front rapidly
advances eastward into a buoyant airmass (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE,
driven primarily by upper 60s F surface dewpoints), several strong
to severe storms should initiate along the front. An intense QLCS
may develop, comprised of a mix of embedded supercells and
potentially long-lived meso-gamma scale vortices. A 50-60 kt
low-level jet overspread by 100+ kts of 500 mb flow will support
very large/curved hodographs amid residual surface-based
instability. In addition to widespread severe gusts, several
QLCS/possible embedded supercell tornadoes appear likely with this
main round of storms. Given the high magnitudes of shear, at least a
few sustained, strong tornadoes are likely and an intense (EF3+)
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. One caveat which precludes the
issuance of higher tornado-driven probabilities this outlook is the
advection of warm 700 mb temperatures into the low-level jet axis
during the evening, which may temper low-level updraft stretching
and in turn, dampen tornado potential with a subset of storms that
do occur.

The QLCS may undergo gradual weakening after crossing the MS river
around 09Z. Nonetheless, impressive low-level shear profiles and at
least some surface-based buoyancy (albeit scant) should precede the
line, with at least some risk of damaging gusts/line-embedded
tornadoes continuing toward the end of the period.

..Squitieri/Darrow.. 03/02/2023

What catches my attention is the mentioning of higher tor probs which could be hinting at a rare high risk upgrade in later outlooks, or it could mean extending the 15 hatched east. IMO it's probably the latter, some models including the HRRR seem to have it go linear pretty quickly and I don't think there's enough there yet for an upgrade. I'd think we'd need to see much better confidence in pre-squall cells for an upgrade but you never know...

Either way though this could be a nasty day so hopefully everyone down there is prepared.

[cycloneye]

Things are favorable for tornadoes to form.There's a lot of available energy for storm development and there's also a lot of shear.

 https://twitter.com/BrianJamesWx/status/1631274871853400064

[HockeyTx82]

So for those using gifyu to embed I think I know why it's not loading for some people.

My new Router my ISP gave me has embedded filtering and it thinks anything from gifyu is bad content and blocks it. That being said I'm sure other ISP's and or browsers are flagging that site thus why people have issues seeing some posts.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening.

Strong winds of 30-40mph likely overnight into early Friday behind a cold front.

A strong storm system will move across Texas today and tonight. Warm sector air mass is firmly in place over SE TX with surface dewpoints into the low 70’s. Southerly low level winds will rapidly increase later this morning into the afternoon hours a low pressure develops over the southern plains. Instability slowly builds under the mid level capping inversion (a layer of warm air in the mid levels of the atmosphere). This capping should prevent little more than a few showers through the afternoon hours.

As the surface cold front begins to move eastward later this afternoon and evening and the mid levels begin to cool, the cap over the area weakens. Strong lift along the frontal boundary appears to be enough to break the cap between 500-700pm along the I-35 corridor with rapid development of strong or severe thunderstorms possible. These storms quickly form into a line and move into SE TX early this evening, but with the loss of surface heating, these storms begin to weaken as shown on several of the high resolution models. Best chances for any severe weather will be from Columbus to College Station and then along and north of HWY 105. Storms along I-10 west will likely weaken as the move eastward, while storms across the northern portions of SE TX may maintain their intensity as the cap is weakest in this area.

While all severe modes will be possible, very large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Again, the severe risk is strongly tied to the weakening of the mid level capping inversion, and should that fail to happen, only a thin line of showers would result.

There has been little change to the SPC severe weather outlook over the last 24 hours.

Behind the front and impressive low level WSW/W jet develops overnight with very strong winds likely across portions of SW TX into the I-35 corridor and then spreading eastward into SE TX. Winds of 30-40mph will be possible. Strong winds across portions of SW TX may loft significant amounts of dust that could be transported into SE TX Friday morning.

A significantly drier air mass will spread into the region on Friday with low humidity values and cooler temperatures.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[rwfromkansas]

Very quiet. I guess the calm before the storm.