SPAC: KEVIN - Extratropical Cyclone

[Subtrop]

96P INVEST 230227 1200 14.9S 149.3E SHEM 15 1010

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.6S 153.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY 231 NM SOUTH
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND AN EARLIER SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TUCKING BENEATH DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ORIENTED
NORTHWEST TO EAST WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC. A 282230Z METOP-B ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF 96P SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHER WINDS OF 25-30KT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH A STEADY STREAM
OF 15-20KT WITHIN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. 96P CURRENTLY SITS
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, WARM
(29-30C) SST, AND GOOD OUTFLOW BROUGHT ON BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FORMING TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 96P CONTINUING ON A
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS VANUATU WITH THE ISLANDS HINDERING PART
OF ITS FULL CONSOLIDATION BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET TO WARNING
CRITERIA STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

[cycloneye]

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 161.0E TO 19.4S 169.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 161.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 161.3, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS A MASS OF BLOOMING CONVECTION WITH RAGGED
BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010803Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED,
SOMEWHAT SPIRALING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH
THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
IMAGERY REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS
PRESENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. INVEST 96B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY CONSISTENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A WELL-
DEFINED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
INVEST 96P WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS
IT TRANSITS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Looks like it could already be a TC with 34+kt winds, but there has been no ASCAT hit in 3 days. If it develops a cleared out eye then ASCAT will pass overhead daily. ASCAT seems to avoid developing storms.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 09F [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.2S 162.0E AT 011200UTC.
POSITION POOR. IT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 90 TO 200 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.4S 161.7E AT 011800UTC.
POSITION POOR. SLOW MOVING.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 90 TO 240 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

[cycloneye]

Is now TC Kevin.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 162.3E AT
012100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI HR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH IMPROVE
ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS AND THEN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH BAND OF 0.6/0.7 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

[Hurricane2022]

.

[cycloneye]

STORM WARNING 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 020117 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8
SOUTH 163.0 EAST AT 020000 UTC.POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.8S 163.0E at 020000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 030000 UTC.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 978HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 163.8E AT
020600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI HR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD AND CENTRE LIES JUST EAST OF UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUT FLOW OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
TO HIGH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS.GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY
MOVE IT SOUTHEAST AND THEN IN A EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS DIRECTION WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON CURVED BAND WITH BAND OF 1.0 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDS
T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 977HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.5S 164.6E AT 021200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI HR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING EAST- SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. LLCC LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUT FLOW. SYSTEM LIES IN STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AREA IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON CURVED BAND WITH BAND OF 0.9 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL WITH WHITE BAND,
YIELDS
T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEST THAN SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

[cycloneye]

Unfortunaly the same track as Judy as it will move over Port Vila in Vanuatu.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1631338609902260224

[cycloneye]

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 974HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
165.6E AT 021800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI HR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. LLCC LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD
OUT FLOW.
SYSTEM LIES IN STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AREA IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS. SYSTEM BEING STEERED TO
THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE. CENTRE EMBEDDED IN CDG WITH
NO BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET.
THUS YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

[cycloneye]

Looking very good.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1631373658005602304

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 030111 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 960HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
166.6E AT 030000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI HR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

ORGANISATION GOOD. CENTRE LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUT FLOW. SYSTEM LIES IN STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE AREA IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE
CELCIUS. SYSTEM BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE. CENTRE EMBEDDED IN CDG WITH
NO BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET.
THUS YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

[WAcyclone]

Looks like the minimum pressure at Port Vila was 971.5 hPa at 7:28 UTC.



http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd/q1c7o0hj48yu/?station_number=200857

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN CENTRE 957HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6
SOUTH 167.7 EAST AT 030600 UTC. POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.6S 167.7E at 030600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
95 KNOTS BY 040600 UTC.