SIO: FREDDY - Remnants

[Cyclenall]

I left this thread open on a tab I neglected for about a week near Freddie's LF on Moz thinking he's long dead and when I refreshed I was shocked to find he is still going, . I suppose South Indian TCs tracks are known to do weird things like this but stalling over land then coming back out having a 5th go at it...

Freddy will be among the most distinguished tropical cyclones of this decade despite the vast majority who dabble in this meteorology not knowing about it. Thanks Luis for posting these updates as I wouldn't have checked or known otherwise.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1632022165674692609

[Teban54]

Freddy pulling an Ivan 2.0 but stronger..

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1632065539890716672

[qscdefb]

Caveat when looking at intensity forecasts made by numerical models: some models have atmosphere-ocean coupling, meaning that slow TCs produce upwelling reduce the SSTs in the model. Others don’t have this coupling, so they are more likely to overestimate slow-moving TCs.
In particular, HWRF doesn’t have this coupling in this region even though it does have coupling elsewhere, so I’d take its forecasts with a grain of salt.

[JetFuel_SE]

Yeah let me just stay here for a few days.

[Ptarmigan]

Tropical Cyclone Freddy could be one of the longest living tropical cyclones known.

[JetFuel_SE]

5+ nights with cyclone Freddy

I mean, 5 weeks IS more than 5 days.

[cycloneye]

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 75 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 100 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 992 hPa.

Position on March 04 at 10 p.m. local time: 22.5 South / 40.6 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1525 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1180 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: EAST-SOUTH-EAST, at 11 km/h.

System Information:

- FREDDY passed a few hours ago in the immediate vicinity of Europa at the moderate tropical storm stage. It continues to move east-southeast.

- FREDDY should reach the stage of a strong tropical storm this Sunday as it approaches the Malagasy coasts (Tulear/Toliara region). At present, a landing is not envisaged but this scenario cannot be excluded.

- Beyond Monday, FREDDY should move away from Madagascar by adopting a trajectory in a general direction of the North-West but the details of which remain uncertain. It is likely that it will then intensify to the tropical cyclone stage in the center of the Mozambique Channel.

- FREDDY presents an essentially rainy threat to the western and southwestern regions of Madagascar (Melaky, Menabe and Atsimo-Andrefana, including the cities of Morombe and Tulear) at least until the beginning of next week. Rains likely to cause flooding and landslides are possible especially on Sunday and Monday, particularly in the Atsimo-Andrefana region. On the coastal regions of Menabe and Atsimo-Andrefana, these heavy rains will also be associated with strong winds and a dangerous sea state due to the cyclonic swell. The inhabitants of these regions are invited to closely follow the evolution of FREDDY and to remain attentive to the instructions of the local authorities.

[Iceresistance]

Freddy pulling an Ivan 2.0 but stronger..

I was thinking John 1994, but has no idea where to go.

[aspen]

Most models show Freddy making landfall back in Mozambique late next week. However, the GFS is the one outlier and is far faster, showing a landfall in only about 4.5 days. Every other model has Freddy still over the Mozambique Channel by midweek.

[cycloneye]

Organizing fast.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This storm will likely become the longest lived tropical cyclone of recorded history. It only needs to last another 5 days.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The other question is, will it get the most ace of all time?

[cycloneye]

The other question is, will it get the most ace of all time?

Ioke has the record with 85.26 ACE units. Freddy has right now 71.19 units.

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of March 05 at 04:31 local time in Reunion (03.31 local time in Mayotte):


MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 988 hPa.

Position on March 05 at 04 local time: 22.7 South / 41.2 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1460 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1170 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: EAST, at 11 km/h.

System Information:

- FREDDY passed a few hours ago in the immediate vicinity of Europa at the moderate tropical storm stage. It continues to move east-southeast.

- FREDDY should reach the stage of a strong tropical storm this Sunday as it approaches the Malagasy coasts (Tulear/Toliara region). At present, a landing is not envisaged but this scenario cannot be excluded.

- Beyond Monday, FREDDY should move away from Madagascar by adopting a trajectory in a general direction of the North-West but the details of which remain uncertain. It is likely that it will then intensify to the stage of a tropical cyclone over the center of the Mozambique Channel.

- FREDDY presents an essentially rainy threat to the western and southwestern regions of Madagascar (Melaky, Menabe and Atsimo-Andrefana, including the cities of Morombe and Tulear) at least until the beginning of next week. Rains likely to cause flooding and landslides are possible especially on Sunday and Monday, particularly in the Atsimo-Andrefana region. On the coastal regions of Menabe and Atsimo-Andrefana, these heavy rains will also be associated with strong winds and a dangerous sea state due to the cyclonic swell. The inhabitants of these regions are invited to closely follow the evolution of FREDDY and to remain attentive to the instructions of the local authorities.

[cycloneye]

The organization continues fast.

[aspen]

Since Freddy will be around for at least another 5-7 days, it’ll likely finish with >23-25 NS days, 16-20 hurricane days, potentially >10 MH days, and 75-80 ACE. It probably won’t break Ioke’s global ACE record, but it will be without question one of the longest-duration tropical cyclones ever recorded in pretty much every aspect (except for Cat 5 duration).

[Foxfires]

Since Freddy will be around for at least another 5-7 days, it’ll likely finish with >23-25 NS days, 16-20 hurricane days, potentially >10 MH days, and 75-80 ACE. It probably won’t break Ioke’s global ACE record, but it will be without question one of the longest-duration tropical cyclones ever recorded in pretty much every aspect (except for Cat 5 duration).

What about category 4 duration?

[cycloneye]

Bulletin of March 05 at 10:14 a.m. local in Reunion (09:14 a.m. local in Mayotte):


MODERATE TROPICAL STORM number 7

(FREDDY)

Maximum winds (averaged over 10 minutes) estimated at sea: 85 km/h.

Estimated maximum gusts at sea: 120 km/h.

Estimated pressure at the center: 988 hPa.

Position on March 05 at 10 a.m. local time: 23.0 South / 41.7 East.

Distance from the Reunion coast: 1405 km to the sector: WEST

Distance from Mayotte: 1180 km to the sector: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST

Movement: EAST, at 13 km/h.

System Information:

- FREDDY is continuing its course towards Madagascar on an eastward track, at the moderate tropical storm stage.

- FREDDY should reach the stage of a strong tropical storm over the next 24 hours as it approaches the Malagasy coasts (Tulear/Toliara region). At present, a landing is not envisaged but this scenario cannot be completely excluded.

- Beyond Monday, FREDDY should move away from Madagascar by adopting a trajectory in a general direction of the North-West but the details of which remain uncertain. It is likely that it will then intensify to the stage of a tropical cyclone over the center of the Mozambique Channel.

- FREDDY presents an essentially rainy threat over the western and southwestern regions of Madagascar (Menabe and Atsimo-Andrefana, including the cities of Morombe and Tulear) at least until the beginning of next week. Rains likely to cause flooding and landslides are possible especially today and tomorrow, particularly in the Atsimo-Andrefana region. On the coastal regions of Menabe and Atsimo-Andrefana, these heavy rains will also be associated with strong winds and a dangerous sea state due to the cyclonic swell. The inhabitants of these regions are invited to closely follow the evolution of FREDDY and to remain attentive to the instructions of the local authorities.