Texas Spring 2023

[Cpv17]

North Texas aka the new swamp/big thicket of Texas. You guys have been getting so much rain!

The northeast quadrant of Texas almost always gets the most action. It’s highly annoying for me.

[Iceresistance]

North Texas aka the new swamp/big thicket of Texas. You guys have been getting so much rain!

The northeast quadrant of Texas almost always gets the most action. It’s highly annoying for me.

Well, I suppose the favorable rainfall parameters will eventually come down to Southern Texas.

[Edwards Limestone]

North Texas aka the new swamp/big thicket of Texas. You guys have been getting so much rain!

The northeast quadrant of Texas almost always gets the most action. It’s highly annoying for me.

Well, I suppose the favorable rainfall parameters will eventually come down to Southern Texas.

El Nino transition will undoubtedly help...we are still experiencing significant drought in the eastern Hill Country- very few bluebonnets blooming this year.

[wxman57]

Only 0.02" in SW Houston with the last "squall line", that stayed to our north. Long range, models keep pushing any really cold air later and later. My trees have all decided that winter is over. Red oak is leafing out, as is the vitex and crepe myrtles. Azalea flowers are starting to fade. Grass is now officially growing. Had to mow last week, though it was mostly weeds. More grass than weeds this week.

[Brent]

I may not even get below freezing now

[gpsnowman]

I may not even get below freezing now

We went from 30s for lows 40s/50s for highs to 40s to low and mid 60s for highs. Brrrrrr!! We need a new map called "Risk of normal temperatures".

[bubba hotep]

[Gotwood]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023030200/eps_T850a_namer_40.png

https://media.tenor.com/images/352283c072200916a2b7303702436069/tenor.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023030612/eps_T850a_namer_22.png

https://media.tenor.com/2G_VH3jdNIMAAAAC/george-michael.gif

So what did/didn’t happen for such a drastic change?

[Brent]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023030200/eps_T850a_namer_40.png

https://media.tenor.com/images/352283c072200916a2b7303702436069/tenor.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023030612/eps_T850a_namer_22.png

https://media.tenor.com/2G_VH3jdNIMAAAAC/george-michael.gif

So what did/didn’t happen for such a drastic change?

I'm assuming its just one of those things where you know the pattern has to be right to get cold air down into the Southern Plains and well it's not right now

[Iceresistance]

I had a nasty surprise last night, I'm posting from the school since my house is completely without power (and Internet), it's been like that for 7 hours now.

The rainfall could be really good into completely erasing the drought here.

[Cpv17]

The SPC is mentioning Sunday as the next possibility of severe weather. They’re saying it looks like it could be a hail event.

[Edwards Limestone]

The SPC is mentioning Sunday as the next possibility of severe weather. They’re saying it looks like it could be a hail event.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070849
SPC AC 070849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Given good run-to-run consistency, the ECMWF members are preferred
for this forecast.

Generally west/southwest flow aloft will prevail across the CONUS
during the Friday/D4 to Sunday/D6 period, with a shortwave trough
over the Northeast on Friday/D4. Low-level moisture return will
increase across the southern Plains on Saturday/D5 as heights
gradually fall in response to a low-amplitude wave moving in from
the Southwest. Winds aloft will increase with 40-50 kt midlevel
westerlies common across the southern states.

MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg is forecast over parts of TX and OK on
Saturday/D5 as pressures lower over the Plains. A surface low is
forecast to move across the Red River Valley, and proceed towards
the lower MS Valley into Sunday/D6. Dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s will be common on Sunday/D6 across the Gulf Coast States, and
the combination of sufficient instability and elongating hodographs
may end up favoring damaging hail storms. Midlevel lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km are forecast, further aiding hail potential. Given
the subtleness of the wave and likelihood of areas of
substantial/ongoing precipitation, will defer a possible risk area
to later updates.

..Jewell.. 03/07/2023

[Iceresistance]

I had a nasty surprise last night, I'm posting from the school since my house is completely without power (and Internet), it's been like that for 7 hours now.

The rainfall could be really good into completely erasing the drought here.

I just got word that Power has been restored at my house, it was out for 10 hours and 30 minutes!

[Iceresistance]

Marginal risk now for DFW today

[Ntxw]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023030200/eps_T850a_namer_40.png

https://media.tenor.com/images/352283c072200916a2b7303702436069/tenor.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023030612/eps_T850a_namer_22.png

https://media.tenor.com/2G_VH3jdNIMAAAAC/george-michael.gif

So what did/didn’t happen for such a drastic change?

-PNA west coast trough, and -NAO east coast trough. That means there's a ridge somewhere between them. But climo is also not that cold.

Equinox is less than two weeks away. We are close to September sun angles. For DFW and surrounding sites so far March is starting near +9F or more above normal. It was supposed to be a cool month but so far the complete opposite.

[Gotwood]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023030200/eps_T850a_namer_40.png

https://media.tenor.com/images/352283c072200916a2b7303702436069/tenor.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023030612/eps_T850a_namer_22.png

https://media.tenor.com/2G_VH3jdNIMAAAAC/george-michael.gif

So what did/didn’t happen for such a drastic change?

-PNA west coast trough, and -NAO east coast trough. That means there's a ridge somewhere between them. But climo is also not that cold.

Equinox is less than two weeks away. We are close to September sun angles. For DFW and surrounding sites so far March is starting near +9F or more above normal. It was supposed to be a cool month but so far the complete opposite.

I’m ok with an above normal late winter/spring if we can get a cool wet summer.

[Iceresistance]

So what did/didn’t happen for such a drastic change?

-PNA west coast trough, and -NAO east coast trough. That means there's a ridge somewhere between them. But climo is also not that cold.

Equinox is less than two weeks away. We are close to September sun angles. For DFW and surrounding sites so far March is starting near +9F or more above normal. It was supposed to be a cool month but so far the complete opposite.

I’m ok with an above normal late winter/spring if we can get a cool wet summer.

Especially since we have the La Nina dying away.

[Iceresistance]

Goodness, it's POURING in Oklahoma City!

[dpep4]

Decent line of storms has formed in the last hour in between Spur and Electra, but doesn't seem to be actually moving much.

Weaker line behind near Lubbock is marching east, though.

[Iceresistance]

Decent line of storms has formed in the last hour in between Spur and Electra, but doesn't seem to be actually moving much.

Weaker line behind near Lubbock is marching east, though.

It's moving to the NE and constantly backbuilding.