SPAC: 10F - Remnants

[cycloneye]

SH, 99, 2023030818, , BEST, 0, 178S, 1719W, 25, 1004, TD

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 992023.dat

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1633872328747778048

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1633872328747778048?t=6STPbjMDpikHnwgn0nbWBg&s=19

Is the Twitter Yellow Evan the same one as the one here or not?

[Hurricane2022]

https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1633872328747778048?t=6STPbjMDpikHnwgn0nbWBg&s=19

Is the Twitter Yellow Evan the same one as the one here or not?

Looks like yes

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1633925635222433798

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2S
168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) AND A 091230Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION COVERING
THE POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING
CREEPING IN TOWARDS THE LLCC. WITH 99P BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ,
ENVIRONMENTALS ARE WELL WITHIN ITS FAVOR WITH WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TAIL END OF THE STJ TO THE
SOUTHEAST), AND MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT IN
FULL AGREEMENT JUST YET ON 99P BUT GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW IT
CONTINUING ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY AND SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
INTENSIFYING TO A POSSIBLE LOW TIER 40-45KT TC IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
LOW.

[cycloneye]

TCFA.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2S 168.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM EAST
OF NIUE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
091725Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION COVERING
THE POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS WELL AS FORMATIVE
BANDING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
LLCC. A 092103Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PARTIAL PASS REVEALED A LARGE
SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WIND FIELDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES AND SMALLER
FIELDS OF 25-30 KNOTS NEAR THE POSSIBLE LLCC. 99P CONTINUES TO BE DEEPLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SPCZ, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
(AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TAIL END OF
THE STJ TO THE SOUTHEAST), AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS. DUE TO THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, WHICH GENERALLY INDICATE AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG OR WITHIN A SURFACE TROF, WITH THE GFS AND
NAVGEM BEING THE FRONTRUNNERS. NO MESOSCALE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
AVAILABLE, BUT THE GLOBAL GFS AND NAVGEM CONCUR ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY SMALL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE GLOBAL FIELDS ARE
LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND WARNING
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

Looks very good.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 102151 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F CENTRE [1007HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.7S
163.6W AT 102100UTC. TD10F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS/IR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER AND EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC
WITH SOME ORGANISATION. TD10F LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE AND REDUCING TO LOW-MODERATE
THEREAFTER.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F CENTRE [1010HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 22.6S
166.1W AT 111800UTC. TD10F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER AND EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC
WITH SOME ORGANISATION. TD10F LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY
LOW.

[cycloneye]

Down to low chance.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.7S 164.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 161.9W, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. AN 112022Z
ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT
WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLC AND A SMALL SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. INVEST 99P IS CURRENTLY SITUATED UNDER
MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS
CONTRIBUTING TO A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. SST REMAINS
CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.