2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Yellow Evan]

Expect the Caribbean to be a graveyard as a result of the convection from the likely El Niño. Outside the Caribbean is fair game unless the WAM is much less active than recent years.

[cycloneye]

Maybe some early formations in June/July?

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1638137135688564736




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1638137138012192768

[crownweather]

Maybe some early formations in June/July?

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1638137135688564736

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1638137138012192768

Interesting that you mention that because a good chunk of the analog years (8 out of 9) I came up with for the hurricane season featured early season development. These include:
1899: Tropical Storm in late June and a hurricane in late July.
1951: Hurricane Able in mid May.
1957: Hurricane Audrey in late June, as well as a unnamed tropical storm in early June.
1965: Unnamed tropical storm in mid-June.
1972: Sub-Tropical Storm in late May and Hurricane Agnes in mid June.
1976: Sub-Tropical Storm in late May.
1997: Unnamed tropical storm in early June and Tropical Storm Ana in late June & early July.
2009: Tropical depression in late May.

So I'm pretty confident that we'll probably see some early development (maybe as early as mid May to early June) this season.

[WalterWhite]

For ASO, SST anomalies in the Caribbean matter most! The MDR, Canary Current, and ENSO are also very important.



What matters most for determining how active this season will be is:

• Whether the ENSO will be positive or negative (looking positive)
• How warm the Caribbean will be
• How warm the MDR will be (likely be warm, similar to most recent years)
• Whether SSTAs off Iberia will be positive or negative

[JetFuel_SE]

Maybe some early formations in June/July?

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1638137135688564736

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1638137138012192768

Interesting that you mention that because a good chunk of the analog years (8 out of 9) I came up with for the hurricane season featured early season development. These include:
1899: Tropical Storm in late June and a hurricane in late July.
1951: Hurricane Able in mid May.
1957: Hurricane Audrey in late June, as well as a unnamed tropical storm in early June.
1965: Unnamed tropical storm in mid-June.
1972: Sub-Tropical Storm in late May and Hurricane Agnes in mid June.
1976: Sub-Tropical Storm in late May.
1997: Unnamed tropical storm in early June and Tropical Storm Ana in late June & early July.
2009: Tropical depression in late May.

So I'm pretty confident that we'll probably see some early development (maybe as early as mid May to early June) this season.

Well, we kinda already had 90L in January lol.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's not a significant sample size by any means, but it is quite interesting that since 1950 at least, the two years that featured a major hurricane in June (1957 and 1966) both had positive ENSO 3.4 region sst anomalies by the time such happened. In 1957, it was a bona fide El Nino by June, and in 1966, the season just came out of a moderate El Nino event.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1638556388275150850

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1638556388275150850?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Subtropical recurve season.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1638556388275150850?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Subtropical recurve season.

For the most part, I guess? I don't know though, Florida and the Bahamas do seem a bit wetter than normal (Caribbean and deep tropics seem very dry, as expected for a +ENSO event).

Although the strange thing is, I question why the EPAC is so dry despite the expected El Nino. I find that particularly interesting, perhaps moreso than the Atlantic itself

Edit: I just noticed this is for June-August and doesn't even include September or October; I'm very curious to see what this anomaly map will look like for ASO, when hurricane season is in full force

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1638556388275150850?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Subtropical recurve season.

For the most part, I guess? I don't know though, Florida and the Bahamas do seem a bit wetter than normal (Caribbean and deep tropics seem very dry, as expected for a +ENSO event).

Although the strange thing is, I question why the EPAC is so dry despite the expected El Nino. I find that particularly interesting, perhaps moreso than the Atlantic itself

Edit: I just noticed this is for June-August and doesn't even include September or October; I'm very curious to see what this anomaly map will look like for ASO, when hurricane season is in full force

Probably worse lol since El Nino peaks in fall/winter usually.

[zzzh]

In El Nino years EPAC itcz retracts southward.

[SFLcane]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/B4HMtC9xjTI[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

https://youtu.be/B4HMtC9xjTI

Hi Adrian. TV met in Miami? He explains everything in a clear way that all can understand.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1638860874084503554




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1638860875799965696

[SFLcane]

https://youtu.be/B4HMtC9xjTI

Hi Adrian. TV met in Miami? He explains everything in a clear way that all can understand.

Hi Luis! Nope its Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. @SteveWAFB in the gulfcoast.

[WalterWhite]

Part of me thinks 2023 could actually be surprisingly active for a +ENSO year given the -PDO signature that is expected to remain. Above-average sea surface temperatures are expected to remain across the Subtropical North Pacific, indicating a negative PDO. This negative PDO will create sinking air over the Pacific, leading to rising air in the Atlantic, favoring activity in the Atlantic.

PDO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
ENSO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.el_nino.dat

Since 1995, the seasons with a positive ENSO but negative PDO during the peak (August to October) were 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2018, and 2019; this averages to an ACE of 118 square hectoknots. For reference, since 1995, the seasons with both a positive ENSO and positive PDO during the peak were 1997, 2003, 2015, and 2015; this averages to an ACE of 87 square hectoknots, which is 31 square hectoknots lower than the +ENSO/-PDO average.

[zzzh]

PDO- does not create sinking air over the pacific

[Yellow Evan]

Considering 2004 and 2019 as -PDO feels like cherry picking. Even 2018 is a bit questionable but some indices list it as -.

[dexterlabio]

Also given that reasoning one would argue that -PDO/-ENSO year should be the most ideal combination for an active Atlantic hurricane season, but those kind of years post-1995 were not all that active. The dreaded 2013 is an example of that.

[WalterWhite]

:uarrow: Considering 2004 and 2019 as -PDO feels like cherry picking. Even 2018 is a bit questionable but some indices list it as -.

According to the index used, the mean PDO for ASO 2004, 2018, and 2019 are -0.15, -0.39, -0.25. They all count as -PDO during the peak of hurricane season.