aspen wrote:Hurricane2022 wrote:Hurricane2022 wrote:WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE
I think I found the reason for the dreadful 55kts.
recently the BOM was sitting on that estimate but later they updated it to 70kt. is the JTWC trying to copy the BOM?
https://twitter.com/MhcTracking/status/1641465274334363648?t=g1y6AewzURN9o1u5EgAVog&s=19
in a way, yes
I really hope the JTWC isn’t going over to 10-minute wind estimates. I’ve always hated those. They’re over too long of a time frame to be practical, and can be very misleading (ex: Usagi ‘18 getting called a Severe TS based on 10-min winds despite being a Cat 2). 1-min winds are easier to convey to the public and measure with recon planes, which often aren’t in the eye/eyewalls for 10+ minutes.
The JTWC is also too weak with the pressure. They’re saying this is a 1004mb storm, so it doesn’t seem like 10-minute wind adoption is the sole cause of the bad estimate.
Yeah, and the eye on the storm is very tiny too.