2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Eastern MDR is on fire but is March 30 and that little guy is looming. Will 2023 be a case of both basins warm and a +AMO?

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1641526463609602048

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1641542599105482753

It is March, though. These past few seasons, the MDR has always been warm enough to support hyperactivity. A warm ENSO's negative impacts on Atlantic activity will likely hurt the Atlantic more than a warm MDR would help the Atlantic in this case.

For 2020 and 2022, yes. For 2021, not so much. Phil shared this pretty interesting graph last August during the infamous lull.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1564737339363975168

[WalterWhite]

Eastern MDR is on fire but is March 30 and that little guy is looming. Will 2023 be a case of both basins warm and a +AMO?

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1641526463609602048

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1641542599105482753

It is March, though. These past few seasons, the MDR has always been warm enough to support hyperactivity. A warm ENSO's negative impacts on Atlantic activity will likely hurt the Atlantic more than a warm MDR would help the Atlantic in this case.

For 2020 and 2022, yes. For 2021, not so much. Phil shared this pretty interesting graph last August during the infamous lull.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1564737339363975168

It was still not the MDR that killed activity in 2022. My point was that, per recent trends, MDR sea surface temperatures during the peak of hurricane season are less important to consider than equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures; the MDR has recently been warm enough to support hyperactivity every season (except 2018, although the Atlantic is not repeat that this year), so other factors have contributed to why 2016, 2019, 2021, and 2022 were not hyperactive. This year, a positive ENSO will most definitely be one of them.

[Category5Kaiju]

It is March, though. These past few seasons, the MDR has always been warm enough to support hyperactivity. A warm ENSO's negative impacts on Atlantic activity will likely hurt the Atlantic more than a warm MDR would help the Atlantic in this case.

For 2020 and 2022, yes. For 2021, not so much. Phil shared this pretty interesting graph last August during the infamous lull.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1564737339363975168

It was still not the MDR that killed activity in 2022. My point was that, per recent trends, MDR sea surface temperatures during the peak of hurricane season are less important to consider than equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures; the MDR has recently been warm enough to support hyperactivity every season (except 2018, although the Atlantic is not repeat that this year), so other factors have contributed to why 2016, 2019, 2021, and 2022 were not hyperactive. This year, a positive ENSO will most definitely be one of them.

I'm not expecting this year to be hyperactive (and it somehow does end up as such, then I'll just move to Mars ). I do agree that the +ENSO will somewhat put a cap on total activity, but if this year were a first year La Nina (and with that sst anomaly profile), then hyperactivity would certainly be on the table. What I am more curious to see if abnormally warm ssts could increase the odds for a storm or two to attain powerful strengths, especially if they end up in the western part of the basin. El Ninos are unfavorable wind shear-wise, but that doesn't mean you can't have isolated pockets of favorable conditions during the season.

2016 and 2019 were both El Nino-affected to an extent (2016 had lingering effects from the El Nino of 2015 due to how absurdly powerful it was), 2021 had an Atlantic Nino that caused late-season waves to not develop due to them crashing into South America (rather than the Caribbean Sea), and last year had weird wave-breaking due to the subtropics being disproportionately warmer than the tropics (with possible volcanic eruption influence from Hunga Tonga's eruption in January). It remains to be seen what 2023 will bring, but there's no denying that the Atlantic warmth currently is very impressive.

[weeniepatrol]

Another h/t to alex boreham

"@weeniepatrol this is a (raw) SST comparison between now and when beryl was active it is nearly the same LMAO"

[WalterWhite]

I talked to my lawyer, S.G., about the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. He knows some meteorologists, and they are all suggesting the same thing: record-low activity. Their models point to a major cooling of the tropical Atlantic and a reversal of the +AMO we have seen since 1995; it is about time it flips! Along with the +ENSO the models see this year, they also see well-above-average Saharan dust over the Atlantic and a record-warm subtropical Atlantic. I would not be surprised if no major hurricanes form this year. Word on the street is that the maximum ACE we should expect this year is 45, and that is the VERY maximum.

[dexterlabio]

I talked to my lawyer, S.G., about the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. He knows some meteorologists, and they are all suggesting the same thing: record-low activity. Their models point to a major cooling of the tropical Atlantic and a reversal of the +AMO we have seen since 1995; it is about time it flips! Along with the +ENSO the models see this year, they also see well-above-average Saharan dust over the Atlantic and a record-warm subtropical Atlantic. I would not be surprised if no major hurricanes form this year. Word on the street is that the maximum ACE we should expect this year is 45, and that is the VERY maximum.

But I remember you saying the -PDO that could still remain in place this year would help negate the effects of +ENSO in the ATL? At the least we should see more activity than 2015 which is a hallmark +PDO/+ENSO year

[weeniepatrol]

I talked to my lawyer, S.G., about the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. He knows some meteorologists, and they are all suggesting the same thing: record-low activity. Their models point to a major cooling of the tropical Atlantic and a reversal of the +AMO we have seen since 1995; it is about time it flips! Along with the +ENSO the models see this year, they also see well-above-average Saharan dust over the Atlantic and a record-warm subtropical Atlantic. I would not be surprised if no major hurricanes form this year. Word on the street is that the maximum ACE we should expect this year is 45, and that is the VERY maximum.

LOL I've heard the same trite (no offense to you personally) every year since 2013. No no no no no NO no NO! Not happening. I don't know why this take comes up every year given its track record of not verifying literally every single time. There are:

zero indications that we are flipping amo phase

zero indications the tropical atlantic will cool at ALL yet alone to anywhere near this extent (on the contrary GFS shows another round weakened trades coming up) ESPECIALLY considering we are already about +1C above average

zero indications for zero majors. Even the record cold MDR of 2018 produced majors. How do you expect me to believe this time will be different?

zero indications for 45 ACE. I don't know why people don't realize how ridiculous a claim like this is, just because it happened in 2013 doesn't mean it is going to happen again any time soon. That amount of ACE is comparable to moderate+ el Nino years during the previous -AMO cycle. NO!

I am honestly guessing that you are baiting/trolling or something but we might as well address this before the unironic takes come in, as they always do.

[Category5Kaiju]

I talked to my lawyer, S.G., about the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. He knows some meteorologists, and they are all suggesting the same thing: record-low activity. Their models point to a major cooling of the tropical Atlantic and a reversal of the +AMO we have seen since 1995; it is about time it flips! Along with the +ENSO the models see this year, they also see well-above-average Saharan dust over the Atlantic and a record-warm subtropical Atlantic. I would not be surprised if no major hurricanes form this year. Word on the street is that the maximum ACE we should expect this year is 45, and that is the VERY maximum.

LOL I've heard the same trite (no offense to you personally) every year since 2013. No no no no no NO no NO! Not happening. I don't know why this take comes up every year given its track record of not verifying literally every single time. There are:

zero indications that we are flipping amo phase

zero indications the tropical atlantic will cool at ALL yet alone to anywhere near this extent (on the contrary GFS shows another round weakened trades coming up) ESPECIALLY considering we are already about +1C above average

zero indications for zero majors. Even the record cold MDR of 2018 produced majors. How do you expect me to believe this time will be different?

zero indications for 45 ACE. I don't know why people don't realize how ridiculous a claim like this is, just because it happened in 2013 doesn't mean it is going to happen again any time soon. That amount of ACE is comparable to moderate+ el Nino years during the previous -AMO cycle. NO!

I am honestly guessing that you are baiting/trolling or something but we might as well address this before the unironic takes come in, as they always do.

Check the date.

I fell for it too.

Also, I should have caught that Breaking Bad reference about Saul that WalterWhite just used

[weeniepatrol]

Check the date.

I fell for it too.

Also, I should have caught that Breaking Bad reference about Saul that WalterWhite just used

Yes yes that one was fair game. Lots of wavebreaking imminent, season looking like a Roman marble bust

[WalterWhite]

In approximately one hour from now, the 2023 seasonal poll for the North Atlantic basin will open.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=123323

[SFLcane]

I still think we need to watch regardless if some are showing a moderate El Niño for close to home development.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so I figured this might be something many of ya'll would be curious to see, but here I will share 2023's sst anomaly map and contrast that with all of the El Nino years since 1985 at around this point in the year. Note that this doesn't include warm/cool neutral years.

1986


1987


1991


1994


1997


2002


2004


2006


2009


2014


2015


2018


And last but not least, 2023 (at least assuming 2023 indeed goes full on El Nino)



Upon looking at these images, the only El Nino years that bear even an iota of resemblance to the warmth that 2023 has are 1997, 2002, 2004, and 2006. Even then, it is quite clear that 2023's level of MDR and GoM warmth (as well as the warmth in the Canary region) vastly overwhelm those years' levels of warmth in the same regions. We are, quite frankly, in some uncharted territory here.

[cycloneye]

Ok, so I figured this might be something many of ya'll would be curious to see, but here I will share 2023's sst anomaly map and contrast that with all of the El Nino years since 1985 at around this point in the year. Note that this doesn't include warm/cool neutral years.

1986
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/1986/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_19860401.png

1987
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/1987/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_19870401.png

1991
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/1991/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_19910401.png

1994
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/1994/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_19940401.png

1997
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/1997/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_19970401.png

2002
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2002/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20020401.png

2004
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2004/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20040401.png

2006
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2006/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20060401.png

2009
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2009/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20090401.png

2014
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2014/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20140401.png

2015
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2015/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20150401.png

2018
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2018/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20180401.png

And last but not least, 2023 (at least assuming 2023 indeed goes full on El Nino)
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2023/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20230401.png


Upon looking at these images, the only El Nino years that bear even an iota of resemblance to the warmth that 2023 has are 1997, 2002, 2004, and 2006. Even then, it is quite clear that 2023's level of MDR and GoM warmth (as well as the warmth in the Canary region) vastly overwhelm those years' levels of warmth in the same regions. We are, quite frankly, in some uncharted territory here.

What I said here.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 5#p3020915

[Category5Kaiju]

Another set of comparisons I would like to show are 2023's current sst anomaly profile with those of the most active Atlantic seasons in recent times at around this point of the year (1995, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, and 2020), regardless of ENSO (though nearly all of these years except 2004 were La Nina).

1995


2004


2005


2010


2017


2020


And last but not least, 2023



The warmth we are currently seeing in the Atlantic is, quite interestingly, on par with seasons like 2005 and 2010 (those years did seem to have a warmer western MDR however). 2023 is currently ahead of 1995, 2004, and 2017 in overall GoM and MDR/Canary region warmth; I would also argue that to a degree, we're even ahead of 2020 as 2020 by this point in time saw absurd warmth in the Atlantic Nino region, with the MDR and Canary region being *decently* warm, as opposed to now where much of the MDR and Canary region is experiencing robust positive anomalies in sst.

[SFLcane]

Another set of comparisons I would like to show are 2023's current sst anomaly profile with those of the most active Atlantic seasons in recent times at around this point of the year (1995, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, and 2020), regardless of ENSO (though nearly all of these years except 2004 were La Nina).

1995
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/1995/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_19950401.png

2004
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2004/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20040401.png

2005
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2005/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20050401.png

2010
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2010/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20100401.png

2017
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2017/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20170401.png

2020
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2020/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20200401.png

And last but not least, 2023
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2023/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20230401.png


The warmth we are currently seeing in the Atlantic is, quite interestingly, on par with seasons like 2005 and 2010 (those years did seem to have a warmer western MDR however). 2023 is currently ahead of 1995, 2004, and 2017 in overall GoM and MDR/Canary region warmth; I would also argue that to a degree, we're even ahead of 2020 as 2020 by this point in time saw absurd warmth in the Atlantic Nino region, with the MDR and Canary region being *decently* warm, as opposed to now where much of the MDR and Canary region is experiencing robust positive anomalies in sst.

ENSO is definitely warming too though + ENSO shear will suppress things. Not really sure how strong it gets

[JetFuel_SE]

Another set of comparisons I would like to show are 2023's current sst anomaly profile with those of the most active Atlantic seasons in recent times at around this point of the year (1995, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, and 2020), regardless of ENSO (though nearly all of these years except 2004 were La Nina).

1995
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/1995/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_19950401.png

2004
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2004/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20040401.png

2005
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2005/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20050401.png

2010
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2010/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20100401.png

2017
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2017/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20170401.png

2020
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2020/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20200401.png

And last but not least, 2023
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/image_browse/daily/ssta/png/2023/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20230401.png


The warmth we are currently seeing in the Atlantic is, quite interestingly, on par with seasons like 2005 and 2010 (those years did seem to have a warmer western MDR however). 2023 is currently ahead of 1995, 2004, and 2017 in overall GoM and MDR/Canary region warmth; I would also argue that to a degree, we're even ahead of 2020 as 2020 by this point in time saw absurd warmth in the Atlantic Nino region, with the MDR and Canary region being *decently* warm, as opposed to now where much of the MDR and Canary region is experiencing robust positive anomalies in sst.

ENSO is definitely warming too though + ENSO shear will suppress things. Not really sure how strong it gets

Reminder that you can still get long-tracked major hurricanes in the deep tropics in +ENSO years, it's just less likely due to higher shear.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1643588438938058753

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1643587483320344578?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

I'm honestly beginning to *rather slightly* wonder if this might be an El Nino year that simply defies expectations. Clearly, there is credible evidence of some rather favorable factors in the Atlantic that are quite abnormal for what looks to be an El Nino year.

[cycloneye]

2023 may be like 2008?

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1643592124296843265




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1643593686377283584




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1643595839938412546

[SFLcane]

This is overdone by the ECMWF i am sorry.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1643605029419380743