2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

The Euro ensembles will be upgraded in June and for sure will be very interesting with 101 members.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/pages/view ... =246483247

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1625841171032420354




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1625845420445339649




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1625847830643605504




 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1625861177505882117




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1625893988040421384

[Hurricane2022]

[zzzh]

[cycloneye]

Already the ghosts around?

[AnnularCane]

Already the ghosts around?

They're starting early this year!

[HurricaneEnzo]

woops

[HurricaneEnzo]

Obviously I give this close to a 0% chance of happening but models are indicating some frontal energy lingering around in that area and the Gulf Stream and surrounding waters are warmer than usual for this time of the year. It also isn't THAT far out at least it isn't a 300+ hour fantasy storm. Let's see if it stays for later runs. You never know what might spinup lol

https://i.imgur.com/sx9os2M.png

[Teban54]

At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named

[Category5Kaiju]

At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named

You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder how front-loaded this Atlantic season is trying to be ?

Maybe it wants to get all of its activity done before the October or late September timeframe and just shut down then due to the +ENSO.

[JetFuel_SE]

At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named

You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder how front-loaded this Atlantic season is trying to be ?

Maybe it wants to get all of its activity done before the October or late September timeframe and just shut down then due to the +ENSO.

Maybe it'll be like 1997, where we had 4 storms before August, but then it was just... dead.

[SFLcane]

Come again?

[AnnularCane]

Come again?

https://i.postimg.cc/MHpLXzkn/gfs.png

Happy hour came a little early today.

[cycloneye]

That forms from the big trough that is right now in the NE Caribbean / north of Greater Antilles?

[SFLcane]

Come again?

https://i.postimg.cc/MHpLXzkn/gfs.png

Happy hour came a little early today.

Except its also on the cmc and last nights 00z ecmwf to some extent lol. Maybe some messy sts low develops

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MattDevittWINK/status/1643664840014037004

[Category5Kaiju]

April Arlene?

What is this, 2023 trying to be 2017? LMAO

[LarryWx]

At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named

You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder how front-loaded this Atlantic season is trying to be ?

Maybe it wants to get all of its activity done before the October or late September timeframe and just shut down then due to the +ENSO.

Actually, El Niño seasons on average have been a bit more active than others early. But when I say early, I mean May-June, not April lol.

[cycloneye]

At this rate we may end up having 5 unofficial preseason subtropical storms before Arlene is named

You know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder how front-loaded this Atlantic season is trying to be ?

Maybe it wants to get all of its activity done before the October or late September timeframe and just shut down then due to the +ENSO.

Actually, El Niño seasons on average have been a bit more active than others early. But when I say early, I mean May-June, not April lol.

And in early April.

[crownweather]

Even though I think that the chances for tropical development are EXTREMELY low for now, I'm also not totally discounting it.

The pattern looks actually kind of supportive for development. This includes the possibility of an old front over the Bahamas and a big high pressure system over the NE US. Definitely raises a half of a eyebrow.

[SFLcane]