Texas Spring 2023

[txtwister78]

Based on incoming 12z model guidance, I like what I'm seeing in terms of trends for Thursday and Friday across portions of SC TX and the SA metro specifically. If we can get that frontal boundary to stall/slow just bit more, we could see a nice setup/soaking (1-2 inches) and perhaps even some isolated pockets of higher rainfall amounts.

Trend has been further west/north with time. Interesting to note that SPC has the SA metro in a marginal risk for severe weather (hail) on Thursday as well.

[Ntxw]

Keep the faith my friends. Those in the coastal plains (SE and S-C Texas will be first) with the initial wetter pattern. The rest of the state will kick in the further into April we go and eastern ridge transpires. WWB in the WPAC with linkage is favorable for us. This is no 2022.

Even with the coolish mid month stretch March will finish above normal for most of us. QPF slight below normal (south) to near normal (north). April will likely feature better rain chances as rising motion appears over the Pacific courtesy of emerging MJO signal that will constructively interfere. Wetter regime probably emanates first along the coastal plain.

Later into April and May may 'feel' more like an El Nino with qpf chances every few days.

This will also set up a severe-outbreak type-ish pattern further west than of recent and may (pun intended) be of note in a few weeks.

[South Texas Storms]

Based on incoming 12z model guidance, I like what I'm seeing in terms of trends for Thursday and Friday across portions of SC TX and the SA metro specifically. If we can get that frontal boundary to stall/slow just bit more, we could see a nice setup/soaking (1-2 inches) and perhaps even some isolated pockets of higher rainfall amounts.

Trend has been further west/north with time. Interesting to note that SPC has the SA metro in a marginal risk for severe weather (hail) on Thursday as well.

Agreed, this is looking like our best rain set up in quite some time...hopefully it verifies! I'm thinking 1-3 inches is a reasonable rainfall forecast for SA and Austin right now. 2-4 inches in Houston and southeast TX.

[869MB]

Based on incoming 12z model guidance, I like what I'm seeing in terms of trends for Thursday and Friday across portions of SC TX and the SA metro specifically. If we can get that frontal boundary to stall/slow just bit more, we could see a nice setup/soaking (1-2 inches) and perhaps even some isolated pockets of higher rainfall amounts.

Trend has been further west/north with time. Interesting to note that SPC has the SA metro in a marginal risk for severe weather (hail) on Thursday as well.

Agreed, this is looking like our best rain set up in quite some time...hopefully it verifies! I'm thinking 1-3 inches is a reasonable rainfall forecast for SA and Austin right now. 2-4 inches in Houston and southeast TX.

If the overall synoptic pattern cooperates accordingly, parts of our region should see even higher totals than this. Like Ntwx said, those Pacific Ocean WWB will help our cause in the long run. I know it’s been very dry, but I still feel good about our rainfall chances going forward through the rest of this Spring and possibly through the Summer months, if the teleconnections play along as well.

[Iceresistance]

Why April? Why do you have highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s? Do you want June already?

(Well, I am worried about extreme moisture fuel for Supercells when the lull comes to an end)

[bubba hotep]

Watching the dryline bulge SW of DFW to see if we can get a storm to fire. All hazards would quickly be in play if something can break the cap.

[Ntxw]

Meso analysis has some pretty big parameters in place. Big ? tonight is what can fire. Any that do will be severe. It may be early morning hours. Southern and eastern zones of DFW may have to be on the lookout.

[txtwister78]

Storms developing SW of SA moving NE. Could see some "bonus" rainfall tonight.

[bubba hotep]

Storms developing SW of SA moving NE. Could see some "bonus" rainfall tonight.

Now warned.

[bubba hotep]

00z HRRR puts a pretty nice line of storms together later this evening.

[Iceresistance]

Can San Antonio become the Hailstorm Capital for Texas?

[bubba hotep]

Cell SW of SA has gone through a series of mergers and is now a massive supercell! If it holds together, then there could be some significant hail for portions of SA. Latest warning indicates tennis ball size hail.

[txtwister78]

Cell SW of SA has gone through a series of mergers and is now a massive supercell! If it holds together, then there could be some significant hail for portions of SA. Latest warning indicates tennis ball size hail.

Yup mean 52kft. Last few scans show hail core growing. NWS saying baseball size hail with it. Definitely not a good trend for the metro. Hopefully we see some weakening soon.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1643432232076591104

[bubba hotep]

Looks like that hail core is going to go right over Moore, TX.

[txtwister78]

Looks like that hail core is going to go right over Moore, TX.

Yup. Good news is we've seen some weakening though over the last few minutes. Loss of daytime heating hopefully will help to stabilize environment just enough to lower severe threat for SA.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like that hail core is going to go right over Moore, TX.

Yup. Good news is we've seen some weakening though over the last few minutes. Loss of daytime heating hopefully will help to stabilize environment just enough to lower severe threat for SA.

Unfortunately it weakened a little too much and now there is not much rain from it in SA...

[Edwards Limestone]

The SA forcefield wins again.

[Brent]

Concerning trend up here too... After tonight it's basically just warm and dry for the next 10 days what happened to the wet pattern?

We aren't out of the woods yet... The 2011 analog keeps floating around in the records

[HockeyTx82]

What's going on with the radar out west of DFW?

[HockeyTx82]

What's going on with the radar out west of DFW?

Look out by Vernon. I actually just called NWS San Angelo. It appears the wind farms are returning rotation signatures.

I was very confused