WPAC: 90W / AMANG - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1645543426585419778

[Hayabusa]

JMA TC warning

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎110000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TD ‎
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎110000UTC ‎13.7N ‎126.7E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎1004HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎120000UTC ‎13.7N ‎125.0E ‎80NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎1002HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
48HF ‎ ‎130000UTC ‎14.7N ‎123.0E ‎130NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎1002HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
72HF ‎ ‎140000UTC ‎16.4N ‎121.6E ‎200NM ‎70% ‎TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎=

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 10/2330Z

C. 13.8N

D. 126.9E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...IN THE ABSENCE OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION,
THE POSITION IS BASED ON A MID LEVEL CENTER WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING 4/10
INTO IT FOR A DT OF 2.5. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES SUGGEST A SURFACE TROUGH
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID LEVEL ROTATION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HY-2C
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1730Z, AMSR2 DATA FROM 1719Z AND GMI DATA FROM
1927Z. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE LACK
OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUR

[dexterlabio]

Playing catch up definitely not our favorite game

[doomhaMwx]

90W had an exposed LLCC but was possibly undergoing center reformation when the HY-2B scatterometer passed over it at 21:30Z. The system remarkably transitioned to a curved band pattern just a few hours later! 00:30Z ASCAT pass confirms LLCC is now under the deep convection.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA cancelled, for a potent MJO and looming Nino season what a crap start, only left now is 91W but even that looks like it would fail too as the hyping GFS starts to backoff development.

WTPN21 PGTW 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110221ZAPR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 127.1E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.6E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM EAST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
112022Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. DESPITE HAVING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 90W IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS, LAND INTERACTION AND
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEING INTRODUCED FROM THE
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN
VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1645939810056675328

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1646121027225919489

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dost_pagasa/status/1646300935269011456