ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

The WAM.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1646173327101132801

WAM/ASW is key here. Will it be strong again to stop a full blown El Nino like the way it did in 2018? Remains to be seen.

[Yellow Evan]

If this isn’t a dateline WWB that’ll move the needle towards El Niño, idk what is. Sub-surface seems adequate, we’ve gotten now two notable WWB’s, MJO has been lingering in the Pacific and we’re at warm neutral in just mid-April, the equatorial IO is cool, and strong El Niño’s tend to follow after long lived La Ninas generally. The only real downside is the -PDO but we’ve gotten fairly strong Ninos in them before (1972, 1965, 1957 initially). I don’t think we’ll get to super Nino but we could get quite close. Also worth noting that PDO is worth flipping for possibly a long term flip given east based Ninos have often occurred in conjunction with - to + PDO flips.

[Kingarabian]

2014 is also well ahead of of 2023 and it barely became a weak El Nino. Although it was the appetizer for the 2015 super El Nino.

[Yellow Evan]

The super talk in 2014 wasn’t for nothing but 2014’s trade behavior in AMJ is very different from the status quo.

[dexterlabio]

^Also, the start of 2015 didn't have a subsurface warm pool from the WPAC to work with, after the one from 2014 had surfaced. If I'm not mistaken the series of WWBs did the work to create the Super El Niño in 2015.

[Kingarabian]

FWIW Euro's WWB is about 10ms weaker than the GFS. Nonetheless, it's still a WWB which should continue the transition towards El Nino. EPS also has a month long period of enhanced trades across the entire Pacific and very weak trades in the Atlantic MDR, which means El Nino forcing will likely take a break soon.

[cycloneye]

CPC adds El Niño Watch. Up to 82% of having El NIño for ASO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[Ntxw]

FWIW Euro's WWB is about 10ms weaker than the GFS. Nonetheless, it's still a WWB which should continue the transition towards El Nino. EPS also has a month long period of enhanced trades across the entire Pacific and very weak trades in the Atlantic MDR, which means El Nino forcing will likely take a break soon.

https://i.imgur.com/b6Wmp2h.png

Looks interesting to me that after such anomalous weakening (for time of year) of trades in the 1+2 regions last month helping the near record readings for April, will continue with more. I don't think the recent CP wwb induced strategy of the recent decade or two will be of use here. Very different path to an El Nino, might have to go back much further for analogs.

[cycloneye]

Here is the ENSO BLOG where the CPC folks elaborate more about the April update with more insights.

[Iceresistance]

Here is the ENSO BLOG where the CPC folks elaborate more about the April update with more insights.

https://i.imgur.com/iJn7bIh.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/h3IwqQ6.jpg

40% Chance of a strong to Super El Niño by next winter??

[cycloneye]

Here is the ENSO BLOG where the CPC folks elaborate more about the April update with more insights.

https://i.imgur.com/iJn7bIh.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/h3IwqQ6.jpg

40% Chance of a strong to Super El Niño by next winter??

That will rise. Remenber, we are now at the SB period. Once that is over, the predictions will be more accurate.

[Kingarabian]

FWIW Euro's WWB is about 10ms weaker than the GFS. Nonetheless, it's still a WWB which should continue the transition towards El Nino. EPS also has a month long period of enhanced trades across the entire Pacific and very weak trades in the Atlantic MDR, which means El Nino forcing will likely take a break soon.

https://i.imgur.com/b6Wmp2h.png

Looks interesting to me that after such anomalous weakening (for time of year) of trades in the 1+2 regions last month helping the near record readings for April, will continue with more. I don't think the recent CP wwb induced strategy of the recent decade or two will be of use here. Very different path to an El Nino, might have to go back much further for analogs.

In recent years, only 2017 matches (to some extent) the current SST patterns in the IO/Pacific/Atlantic oceans. Of course the subsurface in 2017 does not compare with 2013.

[LarryWx]

CPC adds El Niño Watch. Up to 82% of having El NIño for ASO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

https://i.imgur.com/5CSs4MF.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/cuN29D1.jpg

Compared to past April ENSO outlooks, the CPC is more confident in El Niño in ASO than in all other years since 2003 with 2002 being close based on JJA:

- 2023: (was 61% in March): 82%.     
- 2019: (false alarm to continue): 55%
- 2018: 37%
- 2017 (false alarm models 89%): 50%
- 2015: 64%
- 2014: 61%
- 2012 (later false alarm): 35%
- 2011: 25%
- 2009: 30%
- 2006: 30%
- 2005: 40%
- 2004: 40%  
- 2002: 70% in JJA

So, in order of CPC confidence of El Niño in ASO as of April:

2023, 2002, 2015, 2014, 2019, 2017, 2004/2005, 2018, 2012, 2006/2009, 2011

This doesn't mean that it is necessarily predicting the strongest El Niño of this period. Rather, it is a function of the high confidence of El Niño forming and forming early.

[Ntxw]

Little doubt now where the background freq forcing is. Favored in the El Nino phases with amplitude, weakening elsewhere.

[cycloneye]

The 4/17/23 CPC update has niño 3.4 up to +0.1C, while Niño 1+2 at +2.7C for a second week in a row.





https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Uninterrupted downwelling KW activity for 2 months now. The stronger subsurface anomalies are thining out (+4/+3C) but we'll see if this recent WWB will redevelop them. Need those for a moderate/strong El Nino.

[dexterlabio]

^Not sure but there seems to be another subsurface warm pool building up near 140E, with some +3C anomalies popping up. Could be something to watch in Fall/Winter.

[cycloneye]

Another WWB.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1648379485266362369




 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1648392142459379727

[cycloneye]

The ENSO models have a good consensus that El Niño is going to be in the Pacific for the Summer, but as to how strong it is going to be, there is not a great consensus yet. We'll see how they line up in the coming months.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1648706053775974400

[cycloneye]

A big one.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1649358500902871040