2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#161 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Apr 17, 2023 4:25 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/2lHSaj5.png

In about a week, it looks like there will be a formidable wall of westerlies blowing across the tropical Atlantic :eek:

The ASW (or WAM?) is returning on the and will be the strongest standing wave for the next 30 days. So it's playing a part in why there's going to be strong 850mb westerlies over the MDR.


ASW=African Standing Wave- the -VP’s over Africa
WAM=West African monsoon-self explanatory but doesn’t get started until later in the spring I believe

MJO propagating to the WHEM/Africa + a timely -NAO to weaken the tropical Atlantic pressure gradient is likely to cause weaker trades and thus a noticeable warm up.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#162 Postby mixedDanilo.E » Mon Apr 17, 2023 5:39 pm

Not gonna lie to you tho, the eastern atlantic is really looking like a hot tub.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_cu ... urrent.png
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#163 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 18, 2023 8:58 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#164 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:15 am



I think at this point, it's a reasonable assumption to say that the Atlantic will go quiet after September, and the Caribbean won't be as busy season-wide. August and September might be more interesting to watch; those two months (especially early to mid September) are particularly when most of the big-gun storms in El Nino years typically happen.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#165 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 18, 2023 9:24 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#166 Postby zzzh » Tue Apr 18, 2023 11:50 am

Atlantic basin ace in summer (JJA) correlates more with MDR ssta than ONI, and it correlates more with ONI than MDR ssta in SON.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#167 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:21 pm

zzzh wrote:Atlantic basin ace in summer (JJA) correlates more with MDR ssta than ONI, and it correlates more with ONI than MDR ssta in SON.


So, by that logic, both would be important for ASO?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#168 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:22 pm

zzzh wrote:Atlantic basin ace in summer (JJA) correlates more with MDR ssta than ONI, and it correlates more with ONI than MDR ssta in SON.


In other words, frontloaded early part of season followed by inactive last 2 months.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#169 Postby JetFuel_SE » Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:55 am

cycloneye wrote:
zzzh wrote:Atlantic basin ace in summer (JJA) correlates more with MDR ssta than ONI, and it correlates more with ONI than MDR ssta in SON.


In other words, frontloaded early part of season followed by inactive last 2 months.

So basically 2021 but less storms (except if you're the University of Arizona, then it's certainly a possibility)
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#170 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:12 pm

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#171 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Apr 20, 2023 12:11 pm

Ok; I actually have a question, and this isn't something I really thought about until just recently.

I was talking with a friend of mine who lives down in Miami (he follows hurricanes closely too); he asked me if it would be possible that this Atlantic season might not behave like other El Nino years (in other words, more favorable to a certain extent) because we've been firmly entrenched in a moderate La Nina state for so long (3 years, that is) and have left it so drastically (in other words, we did not have neutral limbo years in between the last La Nina year and this year, which supposedly would be El Nino). He asked me if it is possible that despite there being an El Nino later this season, if the atmosphere might take more time to respond accordingly? I now have the same question too :lol:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#172 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 20, 2023 12:21 pm

In the last 3 years, we've seen active EPAC seasons despite historic Atlantic numbers in the same time period due to triple La Nina's. That's not to say La Nina effects were not felt in the EPAC though.

If this El Nino event hovers between weak and moderate during hurricane season and with the way the SST anomalies are looking in the Atlantic basin, it's a possibility that we can still see an active Atlantic.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Fri Apr 21, 2023 2:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#173 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 20, 2023 3:54 pm

This will turn up more heat to the Atlantic.

:thermo:

Image
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#174 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Apr 21, 2023 12:01 am

I don't know about La Nina's lagging effects but as for El Nino, the Pacific (West and East) somehow got a boost in 2016 despite the transition from Super El Nino to moderate La Nina. So maybe the ENSO lag does exist?
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#175 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:29 am

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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#176 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Apr 21, 2023 1:36 pm

:uarrow: ENSO is nothing like 1995.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#177 Postby chaser1 » Fri Apr 21, 2023 5:09 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I don't know about La Nina's lagging effects but as for El Nino, the Pacific (West and East) somehow got a boost in 2016 despite the transition from Super El Nino to moderate La Nina. So maybe the ENSO lag does exist?


I've found that profound Warm Enso events tend to (roughly) result in a 3-5 week lag with regard to suppressive Tropical Atlantic impact. Other times the lag is less pronounced such as a "light-switch", given a longer term slow and steady EPAC warming. Those years practically begin with marginal wind shear that only progresses from "already nauseous" to outright "full-on hurling chunk events"
(sorry for the :18: graphic gastric :18: analogy LOL)
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#178 Postby zzzh » Fri Apr 21, 2023 5:59 pm

Image
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#179 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:02 pm


What is so funny? I don't see it.
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Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

#180 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 22, 2023 7:51 am

Iceresistance wrote:

What is so funny? I don't see it.


All of that red is westerlies in the tropical Atlantic. As others have mentioned here, that is going to lead to a very potent warmup in the basin (adding to what it already has now), and something of this magnitude has not really been seen since 1995 (and if you know your hurricane season trivia facts, 1995 was a hyperactive year and a landmark year that began the active Atlantic season that era we know of today).
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