ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

SOI falling.

[cycloneye]

The daily contribution is down today to -26.39.

[Iceresistance]

The daily contribution is down today to -26.39.

It does appear to be a legit SOI crash, I don't see anything that could contaminate it.

[NotSparta]

The daily contribution is down today to -26.39.

It does appear to be a legit SOI crash, I don't see anything that could contaminate it.

I wonder if the nearby extratropical low is pushing the values down a bit

[Kingarabian]

Oceanic El Nino components are being reinforced. Buoys show a strong downwelling KW in the WPAC about to head east. The early spring downwelling KW continues to pile up and erupt off of SA.

[Ntxw]

Sub-surface now is actually a tad less impressive than early month. The ebb and flow of variability but overall each time we get favorable currents/wind stress we gain a little more before it slows down. This will continue but the direction of El Nino is progressing.

Thermocline is depressed, think we continue the path towards a moderate to maybe low end strong Nino 1.3C-1.7C type range.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1650114826650152961

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 up to +0.3C in the weekly update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Iceresistance]

Niño 3.4 up to +0.3C in the weekly update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

https://i.imgur.com/qXkq3BZ.jpg

It looks like that Nino 1+2 got a little cooler, but warmer waters just to it's west.

[AlanSnyder35]

Do we think the Nino ocean SST Wise is gonna be locked in by the start of June ? Also with a Nino like this how far behind is the lag Atmospherically ?

[USTropics]

Do we think the Nino ocean SST Wise is gonna be locked in by the start of June ? Also with a Nino like this how far behind is the lag Atmospherically ?

There is typically less variability after the spring equinox pattern has settled in and models are much better at forecasting JAS SSTAs beginning around June (and why there is a spring predictability barrier). With that being said, the SST regime is never static (i.e., there is variability in timing, intensity, and spatial pattern, and this can affect the seasonality of SST anomalies). This data is a little bit outdated (was published in 2015), but illustrates the difficulty in predicting ENSO variability in the months of FMA.



Regarding the lag between the ocean and atmosphere in response to ENSO, it can vary depending on various factors such as the strength and duration of the event, the location of the anomalous SSTs, and the season. Typically, the atmospheric response lags the ocean response by several weeks to a few months. During El Niño events, for example, the atmospheric response tends to peak in the winter following the peak of the oceanic warming, while during La Niña events, the atmospheric response tends to peak in the winter before the peak of the oceanic cooling. However, the exact timing and magnitude of the atmospheric response can vary from event to event.

[Blown Away]

What is causing the crazy hot Atlantic SST's? 2022 seemed more Nino than Nina with a very active EPAC and barely average Atlantic storm #'s? Summer El Nino seems likely with what we know ATM, but Atlantic SST crazy hot, Euro showing strong El Nino and near to slightly above average Atlantic storm #'s, and many experts predicting average to above average Atlantic season?

Euro showing average Atlantic storm #'s and strong El Nino doesn't seem right, warm neutral or strong El Nino is my amateur guess.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Appears we'll be getting a brief reprieve in westerlies for the next week or so due to MJO placement. We're gradually getting that atmospheric Niño coupling though so once it returns to the Pacific another round of WWBs will likely be on the horizon.

[Yellow Evan]

2022 did not resemble a Nino in any way unless you are blindly comparing just the ACE and NS counts of the Atlantic and east Pacific. In an El Niño, you saw way more rising motion over the Pacific, which weakens the Walker Circulation, moves jet streams southward, and shears the Caribbean. 2022 featured none of this.

The Atlantic will pale in comparison on its effect on the general global circulation compared to the Pacific due to the fact the Pacific is significantly larger. That doesn’t necessarily mean +SSTA’s in the Atlantic can’t have regional effects but a strong El Niño isn’t impossible

[weeniepatrol]

What is causing the crazy hot Atlantic SST's? 2022 seemed more Nino than Nina with a very active EPAC and barely average Atlantic storm #'s? Summer El Nino seems likely with what we know ATM, but Atlantic SST crazy hot, Euro showing strong El Nino and near to slightly above average Atlantic storm #'s, and many experts predicting average to above average Atlantic season?

-nao is causing storm systems to track through where the subtropical high should be, weakening it and thereby weakening mdr trades as well as lowering surface pressures there

[USTropics]

What is causing the crazy hot Atlantic SST's? 2022 seemed more Nino than Nina with a very active EPAC and barely average Atlantic storm #'s? Summer El Nino seems likely with what we know ATM, but Atlantic SST crazy hot, Euro showing strong El Nino and near to slightly above average Atlantic storm #'s, and many experts predicting average to above average Atlantic season?

Euro showing average Atlantic storm #'s and strong El Nino doesn't seem right, warm neutral or strong El Nino is my amateur guess.

The warming isn't from atmospheric responses to ENSO really, but rather a regional feedback to the negative NAO in March (i.e., weaker than normal high pressure over the Azores and stronger than normal low pressure over the North Atlantic). Here is an anomaly chart of 500mb heights from March 23 to April 23. Notice the anomalous low pressure in the central northern Atlantic. This leads to flanking anomalous high pressure to the SW (continental US/East coast) and to the SE (NW Africa/Portugal):


In particular, this anomalous high pressure area over NW Africa promotes positive SSTAs in the east Atlantic and MDR regions in multiple ways. First, high pressure over NW Africa can create a region of subsidence, which is a sinking motion in the atmosphere. This sinking motion can lead to a weakening of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), which is a region of strong easterly winds located at around 850mb over West Africa during the spring/summer months. You can see this has occurred in the anomalous 850mb zonal winds for the same time period (March 23 to April 23). This has led to a reduction in subsidence transport to the eastern Atlantic and MDR regions (typically SAL outbreaks don't occur until June-August for the western Atlantic, but there is SAL coverage to some degree annually in the eastern Atlantic). Additionally, anomalous high pressure over northwest Africa typically weakens the trade winds over the eastern Atlantic, which can reduce the amount of upwelling of cold water along the equator, and promotes positive SSTs over the eastern Atlantic/MDR.

[Ntxw]

In an earlier post comparing the two latest Super Nino events, below are all of the ONI El Ninos since 1990 compared to current state below the surface.

1991


1994


2002


2009


2014


2018


In general we are pretty well ahead of the weak events. Probably on par with the moderate-low high end. 2014 is the enigma with fast start but then slowed, however you can also make the argument it was prep for the much larger event that followed.

[dexterlabio]

In an earlier post comparing the two latest Super Nino events, below are all of the ONI El Ninos since 1990 compared to current state below the surface.

1991
https://i.imgur.com/CFXjWCB.png

1994
https://i.imgur.com/TkPd2yj.png

2002
https://i.imgur.com/IpdXReo.png

2009
https://i.imgur.com/4i7he99.png

2014
https://i.imgur.com/sM9ifjX.png

2018
https://i.imgur.com/Um3Q6kV.png

In general we are pretty well ahead of the weak events. Probably on par with the moderate-low high end. 2014 is the enigma with fast start but then slowed, however you can also make the argument it was prep for the much larger event that followed.

One thing that 2023 has and 2014 didn't have is the atmospheric response. I can say the same for 2009.

[Kingarabian]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

[cycloneye]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

2009 and 2014 had - PDO? That is another factor to consider.