2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[cycloneye]

Good discussions going on in this thread so keep it up.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Good discussions going on in this thread so keep it up.

I try...I'm obviously still learning but I also try to share what I know with others. That's the beauty of places like this.

[Nimbus]

The cold front that is moving east through the gulf has some low surface pressures in the thunderstorms down to 1003 mb.
None of the models are doing anything other than keeping this as a cold front?


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

[Category5Kaiju]

In Sean Kingston's voice:
"Somebody call 9-1-1
Shawty fire burning on the dance floor, whoa
She's fire burning, fire burning on the dance floor
That little shawty's fire burning on the dance floor"

[cycloneye]

The cold front that is moving east through the gulf has some low surface pressures in the thunderstorms down to 1003 mb.
None of the models are doing anything other than keeping this as a cold front?


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

Nothing to see here.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1650535545397977088

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The cold front that is moving east through the gulf has some low surface pressures in the thunderstorms down to 1003 mb.
None of the models are doing anything other than keeping this as a cold front?


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT

Nothing to see here.

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1650535545397977088

Yeah, just an MCS. Occasionally during the season you can get one to burrow down to the surface and initiate tropical cyclogenesis if conditions are right, but that isn't the case here. Pretty neat looking, though.

[AlanSnyder35]

https://i.imgur.com/Qe8SOsf.png

In Sean Kingston's voice:
"Somebody call 9-1-1
Shawty fire burning on the dance floor, whoa
She's fire burning, fire burning on the dance floor
That little shawty's fire burning on the dance floor"

That's pretty impressive. Still holding firm too. Gonna have to see how much of that holds during Hurricane season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/Qe8SOsf.png

In Sean Kingston's voice:
"Somebody call 9-1-1
Shawty fire burning on the dance floor, whoa
She's fire burning, fire burning on the dance floor
That little shawty's fire burning on the dance floor"

Impressive...basically a borderline hyperactive (if not just plain hyperactive) look out there. NAO looks to continue being in a negative phase into early May which should maintain the status quo for a while. Legit the most favorable look we've had since 2020. Of course with that year high activity was a given since there was also La Niña in place, but again, not so much the case this time around, and it remains to be seen whether or not this will offset the effects of El Niño in any way.

[hurricanetrack]

Lots of moving parts for this hurricane season. I go over some interesting things to consider in my weekly video discussion:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/PvG_NopYvME[/youtube]

[WeatherBoy2000]

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1650686517898035202

Twitter thread discussing other analogs all the way back to the 1800s that generally include an el nino, very warm Atlantic, and -pdo. Ultimately, the outcomes are wide-ranging from very active to inactive. Even though an el nino is very likely going to come on around the peak of the hurricane season, it may not necessarily follow in line with what's normally expected, especially if it doesn't come on as strong and/or later than predicted.

[crownweather]

And then there's this.

 https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1650648421458477061


.

[Yellow Evan]

1878 was not an El Nino fwiw - just a decaying one with +PDO which hindered early season activity.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Quite literally "off the charts"

[Category5Kaiju]

Quite literally "off the charts"
https://i.ibb.co/8bn4YR4/mdrssta.png

It's even more impressive considering CDAS has a decent cold bias (it is especially sensitive to SAL outbreaks)

[cycloneye]

The parade of waves will begin very soon.

[zzzh]

Atlantic MDR is currently warmer than 2020, 2017, near 2005/2010 level.

[zzzh]

It's weird to see such a warm Atlantic when you have Nina transitioned to Nino. Typically, La Nina would force a +NAO during winter (this is actually true from mid-Dec to mid-Feb), however, the pattern reversed to -NAO late Feb, causing the warm Atlantic we are seeing now.

[AlanSnyder35]

https://i.imgur.com/crcNJEZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/Dw2A8uO.png
Atlantic MDR is currently warmer than 2020, 2017, near 2005/2010 level.

where it stops nobody freaking knows at this point. it truly is going to be a battle between Atlantic and Enso

[SteveM]

https://i.imgur.com/crcNJEZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/Dw2A8uO.png
Atlantic MDR is currently warmer than 2020, 2017, near 2005/2010 level.

where it stops nobody freaking knows at this point. it truly is going to be a battle between Atlantic and Enso

I wouldn't look at it as a battle; a key reason El Nino inhibits Atlantic activity is due to wind shear. It doesn't matter how hot the water is there's too much shear.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/crcNJEZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/Dw2A8uO.png
Atlantic MDR is currently warmer than 2020, 2017, near 2005/2010 level.

where it stops nobody freaking knows at this point. it truly is going to be a battle between Atlantic and Enso

I wouldn't look at it as a battle; a key reason El Nino inhibits Atlantic activity is due to wind shear. It doesn't matter how hot the water is there's too much shear.

This is definitely true. However, this year is genuinely unique in just how warm the Atlantic is; an El Nino with an Atlantic experiencing 2005/2010-level warmth isn't exactly something you see very often. The Atlantic warmth of this magnitude this early in the calendar year regardless of ENSO state is also very impressive; many La Nina years didn't see anything as remarkable.

Shear will likely cap this season's potential, although there are some reasons why I personally think the absurdly warm Atlantic warmers do indeed matter for helping Atlantic activity. The most glaring of these is that El Ninos aren't necessarily a total-Atlantic-shutdown-everywhere-all-season type of thing. You can definitely get isolated periods of favorable conditions, especially in August and September, where a storm or two can sneak through. Having such warm waters could mean that any of such kind of storm that ends up in the right place at the right time has more energy to work with and, therefore, a higher strength ceiling.