ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Category5Kaiju]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

When exactly did the ASW become so strong? Did the Super Nino of 2015 have something to do with it?

[Kingarabian]

Still some La Nina left in the atmosphere, EPS has a strong IO WWB for the next 2 weeks. EPS also formally kicks off the El Nino standing wave during mid May. But it looks weaker than the one over Africa. Will be interesting to see the effects of the competing standing waves this time around.

This doesn't mean the Pacific and Atlantic won't feel El Nino effects. They both will at times throughout the hurricane season. But those effects won't be as pronounced as 2009 and 2014-16.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

2009 and 2014 had - PDO? That is another factor to consider.

2014 was very much +PDO , but 2009 seemed more ambiguous...? Almost looks weakly negative but I can't really tell all that much.

[dexterlabio]

Still some La Nina left in the atmosphere, EPS has a strong IO WWB for the next 2 weeks. EPS also formally kicks off the El Nino standing wave during mid May. But it looks weaker than the one over Africa. Will be interesting to see the effects of the competing standing waves this time around.

This doesn't mean the Pacific and Atlantic won't feel El Nino effects. They both will at times throughout the hurricane season. But those effects won't be as pronounced as 2009 and 2014-16.

I think that's because the Euro keeps the MJO signal strong while the GFS sends it back to the circle before reaching IO. I guess we have to wait and see which verifies.

EDIT: Well the latest MJO forecast from GFS is now in line with the Euro lol

[cycloneye]

The Aussies update from today has no big changes from the last one as they continue with a strong El Niño proyection for ASO. The BoM model is the more warmest of all.





http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Yellow Evan]

The ASW did exist in 2009 and 2014 just weaker. I can pull up -VP’s if asked.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: The ASW did exist in 2009 and 2014 just weaker. I can pull up -VP’s if asked.

Yeah not much competition.

[Dean_175]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

ASW? That isn't as common a term as PDO or ENSO and in my opinion should not be used as abbreviation. In fact Google comes up with nothing even typing in "ASW+El Nino" , "ASW+meteorology" , "ASW+climatology", "ASW+tropical"! Not to be rude, but sometimes things should just be spelled out.

[AlanSnyder35]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

ASW? That isn't as common a term as PDO or ENSO and imo should not be used as abbreviation. In fact Google comes up with nothing! Not to be rude, but sometimes things should just be spelled out.

ASW AKA African Standing Wave has been a thing for a long long LONG time. A ton of people know what ASW is

[Dean_175]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

ASW? That isn't as common a term as PDO or ENSO and imo should not be used as abbreviation. In fact Google comes up with nothing! Not to be rude, but sometimes things should just be spelled out.

ASW AKA African Standing Wave has been a thing for a long long LONG time. A ton of people know what ASW is

Thanks for answering my question.

A lot of topics have been a thing for "long long LONG " time, but that still doesn't mean that they and their abbreviations are common knowledge in everyone who is in that particular field. For example, most talks in mathematics will start with a brief discussion on what the topic is about and go over abbreviations because even though the topic has likely been around for at least a couple decades, the topic will still likely be obscure to the majority of mathematicians. The average meteorologist does not know what AWS stands for.

[Yellow Evan]

ASW? That isn't as common a term as PDO or ENSO and imo should not be used as abbreviation. In fact Google comes up with nothing! Not to be rude, but sometimes things should just be spelled out.

ASW AKA African Standing Wave has been a thing for a long long LONG time. A ton of people know what ASW is

Thanks for answering my question.

A lot of topics have been a thing for "long long LONG " time, but that still doesn't mean that they and their abbreviations are common knowledge in everyone who is in that particular field. For example, most talks in mathematics will start with a brief discussion on what the topic is about and go over abbreviations because even though the topic has likely been around for at least a couple decades, the topic will still likely be obscure to the majority of mathematicians. The average meteorologist does not know what AWS stands for.

You should see how many abbreviations are in papers.

Tbf though ASW as a term only gained traction around 2019-20 or so. It's still relatively new to someone like me who has been tracking for nearly 2 decades now.

[Kingarabian]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

ASW? That isn't as common a term as PDO or ENSO and in my opinion should not be used as abbreviation. In fact Google comes up with nothing even typing in "ASW+El Nino" , "ASW+meteorology" , "ASW+climatology", "ASW+tropical"! Not to be rude, but sometimes things should just be spelled out.

Depends if we're in a rush or not. Sometimes we'll spell it out, sometimes we'll twitter it out.
Generally a standing wave is basically 60-90 days of concentrated -VP200 anomalies over a certain area.

[weeniepatrol]

To me, 2023 looks to be a mix of 2009 and 2014. 2014 had a much stronger dateline WWB early on and then nothing after that. 2009 we had light trades and then a strong late spring WWB.

Also while 2023 seems to be moving ahead faster towards El Nino, 2009 and 2014 did not have to face a strong ASW.

ASW? That isn't as common a term as PDO or ENSO and in my opinion should not be used as abbreviation. In fact Google comes up with nothing even typing in "ASW+El Nino" , "ASW+meteorology" , "ASW+climatology", "ASW+tropical"! Not to be rude, but sometimes things should just be spelled out.

Depends if we're in a rush or not. Sometimes we'll spell it out, sometimes we'll twitter it out.
Generally a standing wave is basically 60-90 days of concentrated -VP200 anomalies over a certain area.

And -VP200 refers to negative velocity potential at 200mb (upper levels), indicative of rising motion which is conducive to thunderstorm formation and hence tropical cyclogenesis.

[cycloneye]

MJO to help El NIño grow. but how much is the question with the - PDO hanging around.

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1651599575394779137



-PDO= Pacific Decadal Occilation:

[zzzh]

That's -PMM

[zzzh]

Long range EPS shows El Nino standing wave and more WWBs.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GFS with a very strong signal for dateline westerlies on this evening's run once this current temporary bout of stronger trades ceases. Very bullish. Once again this coincides with the MJO swinging back into the Pacific.

[Kingarabian]

Euro for the same time frame shows the anomalies about 2x weaker. Probably NCEP bias at play.

Also legit El Nino events eventually get a WWB near 150E-120E during late May. That could be on the way with this upcoming MJO pulse. Would be fun to watch it take place.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

:uarrow:
Euro for the same time frame shows the anomalies about 2x weaker. Probably NCEP bias at play.

Also legit El Nino events eventually get a WWB near 150E-120E during late May. That could be on the way with this upcoming MJO pulse. Would be fun to watch it take place.

Yeah EPS has (generally) weaker amplification in the WPAC compared to the GEFS, which is probably why the anoms are weaker. I've also heard of the bias you're talking about regarding the G(E)FS with faster MJO propagation towards the Pacific which sometimes causes it to overcook things while it's there so I do suppose that's something to keep in mind. Regardless there's still consensus between both for a WWB to commence in that timeframe, which could help materialize another downwelling KW and add some extra fuel to the subsurface anoms as well as force them to surface.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1651592032195055616