Texas Spring 2023

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I find interesting about the 18z hrrr is that even though the activity has shifted south since 12z, the warm front is actually further north. More than likely this discrepancy is due to the effects of overnight convection, so we’ll have to watch that closely. Recent models have shown an uptick in that, but to somethingfunny’s point, if it doesn’t pan out then any remnant boundaries in the area could serve as confluence zones

[rwfromkansas]

3k NAM doesn't seem to have as much overnight QPF for DFW and keeps things along the Red River.

That will be key for tomorrow.

[WacoWx]

Those supercells out west are just beautiful on radar.

[cheezyWXguy]

3k NAM doesn't seem to have as much overnight QPF for DFW and keeps things along the Red River.

That will be key for tomorrow.

Hrrr continues to back off as well

[Texas Snowman]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1017 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

TXC125-260330-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230426T0330Z/
Dickens TX-
1017 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
DICKENS COUNTY...

At 1016 PM CDT, a potentially significant tornado was located 2
miles southeast of Dickens, moving southeast at 10 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Spur and Dickens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle,
move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from
flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see
and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE
COVER NOW!

&&

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched tornado area added. Dangerous day ahead

[HockeyTx82]

So are these the storms you all are talking about?

Looks like the hatched area is south of where storms are now?

I am always reminded of the April 3 2012 event, when mesoscale outflow boundaries from overnight storms passing and collapsing nearby set the stage for rotating supercell development to focus along those residual boundaries.

We'll need to watch the wind shifts at various atmospheric levels closely tomorrow, along with any localized variations in cloud cover affecting CAPE. I'm sure some areas will underperform.due to subsidence, while other areas nearby could overperform if the boundaries can align.

It bears watching, but I'm often of the "wake me up when the sun comes out" school of storm preparation.

I think for the DFW metro timing is going to be a big factor along with the progression of the frontal boundary. It's also possible storms developing tonight over southern Oklahoma near the river move into the DFW region overnight and work over the atmosphere a bit reducing the overall severe weather threat during the day on Wednesday. Some models show this while others aren't quite sold on this scenario. As it is most models keep DFW highs around 70 tomorrow or lower in afternoon depending on the progress of the frontal boundary.  

18z HRRR has shifted a bit south overall toward the Waco region (warm sector) in terms of explosive supercell development Wednesday afternoon into early evening, but this could change in future runs. Overall, still a lot to watch and folks should definitely be weather aware across that entire region tomorrow. Threat looks to shift south into the HC and AUS/SA corridor overnight into Thursday morning but hopefully with the loss of daytime heating storms will be more manageable then.

[Ntxw]

DFW got a little more than quarter inch of rain early this morning. Temp and dp in the mid 50s.

[WacoWx]

Is the activity around Wichita Falls going to work over the atmosphere enough in DFW to keep the severe threat to a minimum, or is that group of storms the main event, but just arriving earlier than forecasted?

[rwfromkansas]

I don’t think that will help the metro escape unless it expands south. DP should recover. If it was still a huge glob over DFW I would think the impact would be greater.

[Iceresistance]

Big line of storms coming right for me, extends all the way south to Wichita Falls and up to Western Kansas

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t think that will help the metro escape unless it expands south. DP should recover. If it was still a huge glob over DFW I would think the impact would be greater.

I think you’re right. SPC raised probs for today despite also having an MCD out last night expecting storms to hold together into dfw, which verified. Unless the SPC sees compelling data to shift the risk southward, it still looks like game on

[bubba hotep]

Latest graphic from FWD. Where that boundary sets up this afternoon will be key. Right now, there aren't any noticeable boundaries across DFW with winds generally out of the SE across the area. The 60 dewpoint line is hanging just south of DFW right now. How far north does that surge today? The 12z HRRR seems to be lifting it a little farther north than previous runs over the next few hours.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1651212874000527360

[bubba hotep]

Latest graphic from FWD. Where that boundary sets up this afternoon will be key. Right now, there aren't any noticeable boundaries across DFW with winds generally out of the SE across the area. The 60 dewpoint line is hanging just south of DFW right now. How far north does that surge today? The 12z HRRR seems to be lifting it a little farther north than previous runs over the next few hours.

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1651212874000527360?s=20

You can basically track the movement northward on radar via the returns pushing into DFW.

[bubba hotep]

I might be in the minority, but I do not like the new MCD graphics. Oh well, potentially a tornado watch coming for DFW later this morning.



Mesoscale Discussion 0621
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Areas affected...north TX...far southern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261443Z - 261645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual storm intensification is expected through late
morning across the Red River Valley. Timing for an eventual tornado
watch across much of north TX is a bit uncertain (~11am-2pm).
Marginally severe hail/localized gusts are the primary threats
through 12pm.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of sub-severe
thunderstorms straddling the Red River near Wichita Falls. This
activity is located both near outflow/a composite front draped over
western north TX and extending into the TX South Plains and in the
northern portion of a warm frontal zone. Surface temperatures
during the mid morning range from the lower 50s near the Red River
to near 60 deg F in the Metroplex. Richer low-level moisture is
located farther south near Waco where mid 60s surface dewpoints
currently reside.

Visible satellite imagery shows extensive stratus across central
into north TX. Stronger heating will be considerably hindered
except for areas west of the Metroplex along I-20 where it appears
gravity waves are at least acting to partially disturb the stratus
near Abilene. It is within this corridor near Abilene where a moist
axis is evident in surface observations and cloud streets are noted
in the stratocumulus field, that greater potential instability will
reside through the early afternoon. Although surface heating will
be limited, gradual theta-e advection in the low levels beneath cool
mid-level temperatures will combine to lead to destabilizing airmass
across north TX. As a result, moderate buoyancy via elevated
parcels (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected to develop through
midday across near the Metroplex. A gradual uptick in storm
intensity may occur through late morning and a possible marginally
severe hail/localized gust risk could materialize.

..Smith/Gleason.. 04/26/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

[rwfromkansas]

The storms out west are pushing more southeast now and could put a wrinkle in things. Maybe they will protect DFW?

[horns0314]

The storms out west are pushing more southeast now and could put a wrinkle in things. Maybe they will protect DFW?

It is pouring just north of downtown Dallas. Has to be good for the severe later.

[Ntxw]

It is still 57F/57DP at DFW with light rain. We may only rise to the low 60s.

Eventually warm front will move northward but will the recovery be fast enough? It's chilly and wet outside now. I think areas to the south will see better conditions. North of I-20 could still see some storms and MCS trying, imo.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just got a round of small hail here in Dallas, wasn’t expecting that

[txtwister78]

I still think the Waco region and maybe as far south as the Aus metro (more isolated down there) is probably your target area for explosive supercells today. Still a lot of moving parts for DFW to sort out this morning. A few have already been mentioned above (frontal boundary, temps/dews and warm front location), but the other is the ongoing activity NW of the Metroplex that as of now remains sub severe (could change in the next 1-2 hours) but that activity could be strong enough to work over the atmosphere/keep temps lower and thus shift the focus a bit further south today.

Not saying to let your guard down by any stretch in DFW, but if I were chasing today the trend appears to be slightly south of I-20 based on current analysis.