WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Hayabusa]

This should've been 94W though

93W INVEST 230430 1200 6.0N 130.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

00Z GFS as usual hypes this as a strong typhoon recurver, while 06Z makes landfall while Euro can't say yet as those GFS scenarios are beyond the 240hr range, right now it seems to linger over land before moving back east over waters

[Hayabusa]

12Z GFS and ECMWF are the same scenario up to 240 hours. Beyond that GFS goes intense typhoon recurver

[Hayabusa]

12Z

[Hayabusa]

EPS 00Z

[Hayabusa]

Fantasy run from the 06Z GFS, intense typhoon over the waters west of the Philippines in May

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010931Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BROAD LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 93W
TO HAVE GENERALLY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, LOW VWS (5-10KTS) AND WARM SSTS (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N
132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010931Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BROAD LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 93W
TO HAVE GENERALLY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, LOW VWS (5-10KTS) AND WARM SSTS (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

First HWRF run that is the first WPAC invest hype this year but GFS from the last two runs has backed off development though

[Kingarabian]

Going to be hard to get a significant storm here at that GFS time frame because of temporary sinking motion from the IO. Models are picking up on twin IO systems north and south of the equator in response to this strong IO WWB.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 050000
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 119E WEST SLOWLY.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]