2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ChrisH-UK]

There might be something about to happen in the Gulf but have you seen the Shear and the Moisture in the Gulf at the time.

[wxman57]

Overnight model runs look much more realistic. They have a broad low with 25-30 kt winds to its north Tue/Wed. Nothing tropical looking.

[SFLcane]

Um…

[wxman57]

Um…

https://i.postimg.cc/sgHRQMsf/B7-A17-F24-05-CB-453-F-B7-E7-95-A82-C4-D973-C.gif

You can always find an outlier model. Given the strong shear, cool-ish water, upper-level low overhead, and a front lying across the northern Gulf with cool air at the surface, I think we'll see just a little stronger low than the one that tracked across the same area last night. Front low. Gradient to its north may produce 30-35 kts Wednesday, but decreasing wind Thursday as the high to the north moves east. No wind inland and not much precip inland.

[Nimbus]

Looks like it might depend on how far the front digs and how much energy is left in the gulf or if it cuts off into a low.
The earlier models showing support from energy over the Bahamas would not be viable if the front digs down into south Florida.

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS gives my area 8" of rain with the low, 12z Euro about .2". NWS going with 20% chance of rain through the event so it's clear they don't have much confidence in the GFS. We just received over 4" at my house (largest rain of the year) so I'll take the lower end of the modeled QPF as the GFS would cause significant flooding issues.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This isn't going to be a tropical cyclone. I doubt a subtropical cyclone will occur either. It looks like a very shallow low will develop.

[Nimbus]

The front dug a little further south, the tail of the front is coming off Mexico into the gulf this morning.
That has shifted the local west coast Florida forecast to a Thursday rain event thus far.

[wxman57]

Models are in really good agreement now. Weak low along the weak front Tue/Wed, moving inland by Thursday morning. Possibly 20-30 kt winds offshore Louisiana. Maybe 2-4 inches of rain into south LA parishes. Nothing significant at all wind or rain-wise. NHC isn't saying anything, so there's a very low chance of an STD designation. Nothing to see here, folks. I'm sure that it won't be long before the GFS develops its first hurricane coming out of the SW Caribbean this spring (which won't happen again this year).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Models are in really good agreement now. Weak low along the weak front Tue/Wed, moving inland by Thursday morning. Possibly 20-30 kt winds offshore Louisiana. Maybe 2-4 inches of rain into south LA parishes. Nothing significant at all wind or rain-wise. NHC isn't saying anything, so there's a very low chance of an STD designation. Nothing to see here, folks. I'm sure that it won't be long before the GFS develops its first hurricane coming out of the SW Caribbean this spring (which won't happen again this year).

Yeah that sub 950mb may monster was a ridiculous ghost.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, should just be a broad surface Low but the NAM is surely going all in again on the 06z run this morning. At least it's entertaining.

[cycloneye]

The model runs for the GOM Low can be posted at the new Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico thread.

[Kingarabian]

Twin IO systems on the models.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Twin IO systems on the models.

Spawned by a WWB there. GFS/GEFS in particular has it very potent.

[tropicwatch]

That would be one hell of a pressure gradient at the equator if that pans out.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Just for (redacted) and giggles...you know hurricane season is approaching when fantasy range model storms start appearing

[Hurricane2022]

Just for (redacted) and giggles...you know hurricane season is approaching when fantasy range model storms start appearing
https://i.ibb.co/Y03KRG9/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh294-384.gif

The GFS will show this as a (major) hurricane very soon, as usual

[AnnularCane]

I wasn't expecting GFS phantom season to start for another couple of weeks.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS is suggesting that there might be a very powerful Indian Ocean tropical cyclone by the end of next week (has been for the past several runs); it looks to hit either Bangladesh or Myanmar

[AtlanticWind]

I wasn't expecting GFS phantom season to start for another couple of weeks.

Hurricane Season is not far off, GFS just practising and getting in shape