Texas Spring 2023

[Cpv17]

Well I have daily storm chances pretty much after the heat wave Friday and Saturday so I expect things to start ramping up soon on the severe front

This coming setup seems like your daily scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms that start dying out when the sun goes down. One of those events where you could get nothing but 5 miles down the road gets a flood. But no worries cuz you could get some the next day. And I think there will be a marginal to slight risk of severe weather each day. Mainly for large hail and high winds. At least that’s the impression I’m getting.

[rwfromkansas]

Well I have daily storm chances pretty much after the heat wave Friday and Saturday so I expect things to start ramping up soon on the severe front

This coming setup seems like your daily scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms that start dying out when the sun goes down. One of those events where you could get nothing but 5 miles down the road gets a flood. But no worries cuz you could get some the next day. And I think there will be a marginal to slight risk of severe weather each day. Mainly for large hail and high winds. At least that’s the impression I’m getting.

Yeah the talk of the storms dying quickly east of 35 on Friday indicates a more pulse-type storm, not more spring supercell outbreak.

[Iceresistance]

Well I have daily storm chances pretty much after the heat wave Friday and Saturday so I expect things to start ramping up soon on the severe front

This coming setup seems like your daily scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms that start dying out when the sun goes down. One of those events where you could get nothing but 5 miles down the road gets a flood. But no worries cuz you could get some the next day. And I think there will be a marginal to slight risk of severe weather each day. Mainly for large hail and high winds. At least that’s the impression I’m getting.

Yeah the talk of the storms dying quickly east of 35 on Friday indicates a more pulse-type storm, not more spring supercell outbreak.

Well, it is different over Oklahoma, there could be Supercells here instead of the typical popcorn storms in the Summer.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah, I think OK is closer to the dynamics, so stronger storms.

[Iceresistance]

Holy bejeebers, the 12z NAM is... just... wow.
(Most Unstable CAPE, the inversion is weak)

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/12z-NAM.png

[Cpv17]

Well I have daily storm chances pretty much after the heat wave Friday and Saturday so I expect things to start ramping up soon on the severe front

This coming setup seems like your daily scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms that start dying out when the sun goes down. One of those events where you could get nothing but 5 miles down the road gets a flood. But no worries cuz you could get some the next day. And I think there will be a marginal to slight risk of severe weather each day. Mainly for large hail and high winds. At least that’s the impression I’m getting.

Yeah the talk of the storms dying quickly east of 35 on Friday indicates a more pulse-type storm, not more spring supercell outbreak.

Next week looks better for Texas.

[Cpv17]

This coming setup seems like your daily scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms that start dying out when the sun goes down. One of those events where you could get nothing but 5 miles down the road gets a flood. But no worries cuz you could get some the next day. And I think there will be a marginal to slight risk of severe weather each day. Mainly for large hail and high winds. At least that’s the impression I’m getting.

Yeah the talk of the storms dying quickly east of 35 on Friday indicates a more pulse-type storm, not more spring supercell outbreak.

Well, it is different over Oklahoma, there could be Supercells here instead of the typical popcorn storms in the Summer.

You can still get supercells from scattered diurnal driven storms that can turn severe. Maybe just not as much of them and the movement won’t be as fast so wherever they do form they could really dump the rain. And they probably won’t congeal into an MCS that doesn’t die off till the next morning.

[txtwister78]

The setup both tomorrow and Friday across Texas continues to look conditional based on how quickly (if at all) the cap weakens in the afternoon. Models remain somewhat split in determining that factor. Surface temps may offer some clues but those also vary model to model (how fast does cloud cover break) and so not surprised to see the overall variability of QPF/reflectivity simulation depicted.

Latest HRRR, FV3, Texas Tech WRF and to some degree NSSL appear to be the most bullish on severe storms breaking out tomorrow afternoon from portions of Central Texas down into SC Texas. Instability parameters appear to be highest across SC TX hence the SPC outline for very large hail across the Edwards Plateau region should storms develop there.

[txtwister78]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1653811637156188160

[wxman22]

Well I have daily storm chances pretty much after the heat wave Friday and Saturday so I expect things to start ramping up soon on the severe front

This coming setup seems like your daily scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms that start dying out when the sun goes down. One of those events where you could get nothing but 5 miles down the road gets a flood. But no worries cuz you could get some the next day. And I think there will be a marginal to slight risk of severe weather each day. Mainly for large hail and high winds. At least that’s the impression I’m getting.

Completely agree,there may be more widespread rain next week,but this week looks to be hit or miss with the showers/storms.The luck of the draw...

[Iceresistance]

Quick 1/4 inch from a complex this morning

[ElectricStorm]

This morning convection seemed to be decently strong, that's probably going to significantly limit severe potential later today in OK. SPC already removed the 5% tor area and 15% wind area and trimmed the slight risk to the west. Wouldn't surprise me if they remove it entirely from OK next update. Hopefully we can get a decent storm later still, but looking less likely.

[rwfromkansas]

After expanding east, SPC keeps pulling it west. I'm now basically on the eastern edge of slight risk.

I'm not expecting anything after looking at the HRRR and NAM.

[txtwister78]

Well I have daily storm chances pretty much after the heat wave Friday and Saturday so I expect things to start ramping up soon on the severe front

This coming setup seems like your daily scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms that start dying out when the sun goes down. One of those events where you could get nothing but 5 miles down the road gets a flood. But no worries cuz you could get some the next day. And I think there will be a marginal to slight risk of severe weather each day. Mainly for large hail and high winds. At least that’s the impression I’m getting.

Completely agree,there may be more widespread rain next week,but this week looks to be hit or miss with the showers/storms.The luck of the draw...

Drylines by themselves (without a cold front or some other forcing mechanism) are inefficient makers of thunderstorms. Might be a case going forward where we watch old storm boundaries from the previous day to help predict location for development.

Overall agree the next few days definitely can best be described as a hit or miss type setup but if you get one (especially down across SC TX where instability today will be the highest) then look out for large hail and a quick 1-2 inches of rain.

[ElectricStorm]

As expected, most of OK has been downgraded to marginal. Looks like a small area of favorable tornado potential could materialize in far SW OK/NW TX along the red river, where a 5% tor area has been added.

Getting some solid rain/non severe storms though, so I'm certainly not complaining. I'd much rather have this than something like 2/26 or 4/19

[rwfromkansas]

HRRR is bringing back some rain for northern metro, but still blanks most of DFW.

[gpsnowman]

HRRR is bringing back some rain for northern metro, but still blanks most of DFW.

If it ain't shifting east it's shifting west. Frustrating.
Someone will get wet and that is always good. Let's get Texas soaked.

[Cpv17]

Y’all shouldn’t worry about today if you get rain or not. There’s plenty of chances for rain over the next couple weeks.

[bubba hotep]

Y’all shouldn’t worry about today if you get rain or not. There’s plenty of chances for rain over the next couple weeks.

[Brent]

As expected, most of OK has been downgraded to marginal. Looks like a small area of favorable tornado potential could materialize in far SW OK/NW TX along the red river, where a 5% tor area has been added.

Getting some solid rain/non severe storms though, so I'm certainly not complaining. I'd much rather have this than something like 2/26 or 4/19

Rain is definitely overperforming here for sure