ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Upcoming weaker trades will allow more warming of 3.4 and 4. This will officially get us into the Nino territory for the weeklies.

I still think this is a slow burn where it will gradually shift further and further east with the WWBs. We've had years like 2014 and some other fast starts that slowed, probably opposite this time.

Agree. Although I would like some stronger CP westerly wind anomalies and slightly stronger easterly trades over the far eastern Pacific. Would allow for the warming to spread from Nino 1+2 to Nino 3.4 a lot easier.
2014 and 2018 were the most recent fast start -> slow burn years.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

EPac looks cool but I haven't seen the 1+2 region that warm in a while. The whole thing appears to be escalating quite a bit too fast to make the typical observer process. It's already May and yet forecasts are just getting warmer. But it's quite noteworthy that not a single system has formed in the North Pacific that usually coincides with the WWBs that happen before a typical strong Niño --- a "signature" phenomenon --- unless things ramp up.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

As it stands right now a formidable dateline WWB probably won't even be necessary to get the strongly positive subsurface anoms to breach the surface. It certainly would help to reinforce things but our warm pool is so far along it shouldn't take much to really warm up the 3.4 region. There isn't much holding this event back from being at least moderate strength right now.

[Ntxw]

At the moment, definitely not the typical CP Nino growth we are well accustomed to. Spreading in from the east.

[LemieT]

One thing 2023 will not be is boring. So much nuance and variability going on, it's keeping us all on our toes.

[jconsor]

Thread delving into the outsized influence of the subsurface warm pool on the North American (and global) weather pattern this late fall-winter.
This was before water temps at the surface began warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1655114176900083714




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1655121370542403584




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1655128687254163456

[LarryWx]

The NMME (ensemble of North American models) issued today is forecasting a strong east based Nino in August with regions 1+2 and 3 much warmer than region 4. But it also has the overall global oceans quite warm with hardly any negative anomalies. Less than 5% of the world ocean anomalies are blue while 80%+ are red!

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1 ... 6382090243

[LarryWx]

In the new weeklies, Nino 1+2 warmed from +2.4 back up to +2.7, which ties it with 3-4 weeks ago for the warmest thus far this event. Nino 3.4 remained the same as last week at +0.4. Nino 4 actually cooled slightly from +0.4 to +0.3, while Nino 3 warmed slightly from +0.7 to +0.8. Compared to four weeks ago, Nino 3 warmed 0.6 while Nino 4 is the same.

[cycloneye]

Link to the weekly CPC update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Iceresistance]

90-Day SOI is at +1.5

[cycloneye]

The Aussies update has no change as they continue with El Niño watch. The mean of all the models is around +1.6C for August and +1.8C for September.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Kingarabian]

Latest Euro has the upcoming WWB weaker and further west closer to 135E-140E.

[Kingarabian]

So far it doesn't seem it'll be a traditional El Nino atomospheric setup to begin the hurricane season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

So far it doesn't seem it'll be a traditional El Nino atomospheric setup to begin the hurricane season.

https://i.postimg.cc/mkkm6LMD/eps-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2023050800-MEAN.png

Reminds me a bit of 2018 where we had prevalent competing ENSO and African standing waves, albeit this year we have what in all likelihood will be a stronger Niño developing.

But you're right, as far as VP config goes it's unorthodox for El Niño. Having anomalous sinking over Africa is optimal so convective activity can be concentrated almost exclusively on the Pacific, but it doesn't appear as if that will be the case, at least for now. Perhaps the balance of power will swing towards the Pacific as we go further in time and the event strengthens though.

[Yellow Evan]

That’s El Niño with strong WAM if I’ve ever seen one.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

:uarrow: That’s El Niño with strong WAM if I’ve ever seen one.

Yeah the Niño standing wave is very much there, but I'm wondering how many times we've seen such persistence from the ASW concurrently. My only guess is that it could have happened under Niño episodes during the last truly "wet" monsoonal period (which I believe occurred throughout the 1950s and 60s?)

[Category5Kaiju]

:uarrow: That’s El Niño with strong WAM if I’ve ever seen one.

Yeah the Niño standing wave is very much there, but I'm wondering how many times we've seen such persistence from the ASW concurrently. My only guess is that it could have happened under Niño episodes during the last truly "wet" monsoonal period (which I believe occurred throughout the 1950s and 60s?)

Quite interesting that there were a fair number of El Nino years during those two decades that ended up much more active than expected in the Atlantic. Especially 1951; 126 ACE in a moderate El Nino year.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: That’s El Niño with strong WAM if I’ve ever seen one.

Yeah the Niño standing wave is very much there, but I'm wondering how many times we've seen such persistence from the ASW concurrently. My only guess is that it could have happened under Niño episodes during the last truly "wet" monsoonal period (which I believe occurred throughout the 1950s and 60s?)

1950s and 1880s would be my guesses for general time frame. 2015/18 as well.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: That’s El Niño with strong WAM if I’ve ever seen one.

Yeah the Niño standing wave is very much there, but I'm wondering how many times we've seen such persistence from the ASW concurrently. My only guess is that it could have happened under Niño episodes during the last truly "wet" monsoonal period (which I believe occurred throughout the 1950s and 60s?)

1950s and 1880s would be my guesses for general time frame. 2015/18 as well.

If I'm not mistaken, 2015-2018 El Nino standing waves generally were stronger and overpowered the ASW. Opposite of 2023 so far.

[zzzh]

2018 had a stronger ASW than the Pacific standing wave. 2015 had a stronger Pacific standing wave since it was a super Nino.