2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
I do want to bring up that anomalies is not SSTs. SSTa is how much above/near/below from the current averages. It's not all that warm in Spring compared to late summer and Fall where it is always more than warm enough for cat 5s all over the MDR in whatever ENSO year. Also warmer than normal now doesn't equate to warmer than normal later as rate of warming is not equal vice versa with cool anomalies.
In truth all of the global Oceans are warming at a decent pace, so it's not charted territories how things interact with each other compared to the past.
In truth all of the global Oceans are warming at a decent pace, so it's not charted territories how things interact with each other compared to the past.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139487
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Very interesting from Levi about intraseasonal forcing.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1655688164001091585
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1655688164001091585
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
cycloneye wrote:Very interesting from Levi about intraseasonal forcing.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1655688164001091585
Amateur opinion, but I'm starting to wonder if this season's activity patterns may bear lots of resemblance to 2021 when all is said and done. Despite drastic differences in ENSO, possible similarities include:
* Heavy dependence on MJO
* Generally east-based season with MDR recurve storms (Larry, Sam) during peak season
* Early shutdown with little to no activity in October
An intense Gulf storm like Ida may be less likely in an El Nino, but then 1969, which has been mentioned as an analog fairly often, did feature Camille.
4 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Very interesting from Levi about intraseasonal forcing.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1655688164001091585
Amateur opinion, but I'm starting to wonder if this season's activity patterns may bear lots of resemblance to 2021 when all is said and done. Despite drastic differences in ENSO, possible similarities include:
* Heavy dependence on MJO
* Generally east-based season with MDR recurve storms (Larry, Sam) during peak season
* Early shutdown with little to no activity in October
An intense Gulf storm like Ida may be less likely in an El Nino, but then 1969, which has been mentioned as an analog fairly often, did feature Camille.
I'm honestly a bit more wary of an East Coast slammer than I am with a Gulf slammer during this kind of year. I think if the activity is shifted north of the Caribbean this year, while yes we will likely see recurving fish storms, if the right atmospheric steering currents fall in place at the right time (so basically, assuming ridging isn't too strong and troughing isn't too strong), that kind of storm could take a path from the MDR and threaten the SW Atlantic (the Bahamas, Eastern Florida, or the GA-NC region).
In fact, based on many of these precip plots I'm seeing, it seems like that could be a somewhat favored storm path during the August/September timeframe. We'll see; we're definitely in a heightened period of major hurricane impacts in the Atlantic (has been like this since at least 2016).
6 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8928
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
2 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2023 2:41 pm
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Iceresistance wrote:Can't find a good spot to post this
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1655933136969281544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
TONSS of Rising Air in the EPAC. BUT there is A LOT of Rising air over Africa and MUCH of the Atlantic really.
1 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Iceresistance wrote:Can't find a good spot to post this
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1655933136969281544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
In many of the El Nino years we talk about like 2002 and 2009, I believe there was rising in the Pacific but sinking over Africa.
This is basically what you get if you have a strong WAM and wet Sahel. I'm telling ya, that really might make a difference in activity levels. Sst anomalies aren't really the only factor that we should consider.
3 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 730
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Iceresistance wrote:Can't find a good spot to post this
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1655933136969281544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Classic signal for an African Standing Wave there. Status quo for the current regime we've been experiencing over the past 6 or 7 years or so, and likely a sign that the WAM should be a significant driver yet again this season, especially in the face of unfavorable ENSO.
3 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1655695517970571268
Danny Morris seems to have a pretty interesting take on the question of "what do you think would be the absolute cap for this season's potential?"
Danny Morris seems to have a pretty interesting take on the question of "what do you think would be the absolute cap for this season's potential?"
2 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:50 pm
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
NotSparta wrote:AlanSnyder35 wrote:NotSparta wrote:
What is "natural warming"?
Does it not warm A LITTLE from the Sun Angle as we head farther into Summer ? do believe that is a thing. Obviously somebody an correct me if i'm wrong on this.
Well yeah, that's been going on since March. But we're talking about sea surface temperature anomalies, so this climatological warming isn't relevant
I would disagree there. Since 2015 the MDR has warmed up by at least +0.2C up into peak season I don't think this year will be different yet. I would consider that a partial consequence of natural warming and we're emerging out of spring where evaporation and typical patterns that promote significant cooling become less likely the deeper into the season we get. We've never seen a setup quite like this so we have to be careful trying to figure out how this season will progress.
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139487
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Iceresistance wrote:Can't find a good spot to post this
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1655933136969281544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
It will be a interesting battle between the effects of El Niño and the African standard wave.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8928
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
cycloneye wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Can't find a good spot to post this
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1655933136969281544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
It will be a interesting battle between the effects of El Niño and the African standard wave.
Oh yes, this may be the one of the most legendary battles we have seen. It's the crazy ASW vs El Nino.
2023 may become a season unlike any other.
4 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Iceresistance wrote:cycloneye wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Can't find a good spot to post this
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1655933136969281544?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
It will be a interesting battle between the effects of El Niño and the African standard wave.
Oh yes, this may be the one of the most legendary battles we have seen. It's the crazy ASW vs El Nino.
2023 may become a season unlike any other.
It’s something I see already happening a bit on social media, but this is precisely why I personally think that those already bust-casting (and I mean already calling for dead season, 6/2/0, etc) due to the impending El Niño might really be missing some crucial factors that, while quite unusual for regular El Niño years, could play a role in this season and actually prove that it’s more than just the ENSO phase that determines exactly how active the Atlantic becomes.
6 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15959
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Kingsunited33 wrote:NotSparta wrote:AlanSnyder35 wrote:
Does it not warm A LITTLE from the Sun Angle as we head farther into Summer ? do believe that is a thing. Obviously somebody an correct me if i'm wrong on this.
Well yeah, that's been going on since March. But we're talking about sea surface temperature anomalies, so this climatological warming isn't relevant
I would disagree there. Since 2015 the MDR has warmed up by at least +0.2C up into peak season I don't think this year will be different yet. I would consider that a partial consequence of natural warming and we're emerging out of spring where evaporation and typical patterns that promote significant cooling become less likely the deeper into the season we get. We've never seen a setup quite like this so we have to be careful trying to figure out how this season will progress.
The faster MDR warmups we have seen in recent summers is due to the onset of the (unusually strong) WAMs weakening trades. Not due to increased sun angle which is ~constant every year.
2 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Welp...
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15454
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Euro has two WWBs across the Atlantic MDR over the next 2 weeks.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2023 2:41 pm
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Kingarabian wrote:Euro has two WWBs across the Atlantic MDR over the next 2 weeks.
If That is the case we could get even higher than our first SST peak of the year in Late April, Early May. That is interesting to see if it pans out.
1 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2653
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Less than a week till the TWOs.
2 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9870
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
AnnularCane wrote:Less than a week till the TWOs.
I'm ready to see those 7 day shaded areas on interests...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3417
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: 2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models
Welp..looks like the Atlantic season has already started (if you know what I'm saying)
1 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Beef Stew, Cleveland Kent Evans, Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], Stratton23 and 62 guests