ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- SFLcane
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Re: ENSO Updates
1997 and 2015 look like poor analogs to this year to me. If anything, 2015 may be an anti-log in many ways in terms of the ENSO/Tropical Atlantic evolution.
Doesn't mean the El Nino can't become strong (3-month average Nino 3.4 anomaly above 1.5C), but it will likely be a long and bumpy road toward achieving that (if at all, it would likely be in the last quarter of 2023). In any case, the highly anomalous warmth in the tropical Atlantic would tend to favor a quick weakening and eventual demise of the El Nino in Q1-Q2 2024.
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14887
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00305-y
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1656303713626075142
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656304722364473344
Doesn't mean the El Nino can't become strong (3-month average Nino 3.4 anomaly above 1.5C), but it will likely be a long and bumpy road toward achieving that (if at all, it would likely be in the last quarter of 2023). In any case, the highly anomalous warmth in the tropical Atlantic would tend to favor a quick weakening and eventual demise of the El Nino in Q1-Q2 2024.
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14887
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00305-y
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1656303713626075142
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656304722364473344
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Re: ENSO Updates
Looking only at the Pacific theater at the surface is more convincing we can probably toss out weak Nino. Mod-Strong is still the best probability. The oddball being 2014.
Current








Current








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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
90-Day SOI is now below +.5
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Heads up soon as the CPC May ENSO update will be released. Will they declare El Niño officially or will wait for the June update?
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:Heads up soon as the CPC May ENSO update will be released. Will they declare El Niño officially or will wait for the June update?


Eh, daily is above El Niño threshold, but I don't think they'll declare El Niño right now in May because the atmosphere isn't quite there yet.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
No El NIño declaration in the May Update by CPC. There is a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
cycloneye wrote:Heads up soon as the CPC May ENSO update will be released. Will they declare El Niño officially or will wait for the June update?
If they go by the timing of the start of the last two new El Niño events (2014 and 2018), they won't declare it this month and they may even not yet declare it in June or perhaps even July:
1. 2014 El Niño: Even though in retrospect it started way back in SON of 2014, it wasn't declared El Niño until the March of 2015 update! This link is to the Feb of 2015 update, which still had it as just "El Niño watch":
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... cpc_update
Finally, they declared it El Niño in March of 2015:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... cpc_update
2. 2018 El Niño: Even though in retrospect it started way back in ASO of 2018, it wasn't declared El Niño until the Feb of 2019 update! This link is to the Jan of 2019 update, which still had it as just "El Niño watch":
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... cpc_update
Finally, they declared it El Niño in Feb of 2019:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... cpc_update
------------------------------------------
Note that it says this at the ONI table website:
"For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons."
This is probably the reason it took so long to declare these last two El Niño events as official.
ONI table:
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of of El Niño for ASO
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- SFLcane
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
Guess the wet sw Atlantic and into Florida don't count lol.

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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
March-April MEI up to -0.4. It takes time for the atmosphere to transition to El Nino.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
LarryWx wrote:cycloneye wrote:Heads up soon as the CPC May ENSO update will be released. Will they declare El Niño officially or will wait for the June update?
If they go by the timing of the start of the last two new El Niño events (2014 and 2018), they won't declare it this month and they may even not yet declare it in June or perhaps even July:
1. 2014 El Niño: Even though in retrospect it started way back in SON of 2014, it wasn't declared El Niño until the March of 2015 update! This link is to the Feb of 2015 update, which still had it as just "El Niño watch":
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... cpc_update
Finally, they declared it El Niño in March of 2015:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... cpc_update
2. 2018 El Niño: Even though in retrospect it started way back in ASO of 2018, it wasn't declared El Niño until the Feb of 2019 update! This link is to the Jan of 2019 update, which still had it as just "El Niño watch":
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... cpc_update
Finally, they declared it El Niño in Feb of 2019:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... cpc_update
------------------------------------------
Note that it says this at the ONI table website:
"For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons."
This is probably the reason it took so long to declare these last two El Niño events as official.
ONI table:
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php
Thanks Larry for that as we wait for the official El Niño declaration.
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
Thread detailing three of the main explanations for the series of recent false El Nino forecast busts or overly strong El Nino forecasts:
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656734762109632512
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656735197570662431
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656734762109632512
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656735197570662431
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% of El Niño for ASO
If we don't get a CPAC WWB within the next 30 days to help firmly flip Nino 3.4, the chances for moderate El Nino by JJA sink rapidly IMO. MJO will be in a supressing phase and the July trades become stronger.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
Here is the always interesting ENSO Blog that has all the details of the May update and the future of ENSO.
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
jconsor wrote:Thread detailing three of the main explanations for the series of recent false El Nino forecast busts or overly strong El Nino forecasts:
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656734762109632512
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656735197570662431
If I'm getting this right, are you saying that models often mistake the warmer anomalies as El Nino signals when some of it was actually caused by global warming?
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
jconsor wrote:
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060
Directly related to your Tweet above regarding the idea of subtracting the warming of tropical oceans from the Nino 3.4 SSTA to produce a "relative Nino 3.4 index" or "RONI":
"Another factor to consider is that the widespread ocean warmth may make it a little more challenging for the warm temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific to induce a tropical atmospheric response (maybe a reason for the current ENSO-neutral looking tropical atmosphere?). The reason is that the response of the tropical atmosphere depends on surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific relative to the surrounding regions. If those surrounding tropical regions are also warmer than average, then the bar is even higher for the Niño-3.4 region surface temperature anomalies to induce an atmospheric response (see footnote).
The bottom line is that in terms of a push on the tropical atmosphere, we need to consider that the Niño-3.4 index may punch below its weight while it’s hovering in borderline El Niño territory, as it is now. However, if the central-eastern Pacific continues to warm up, we can expect that the atmosphere will feel that push eventually."
Footnote:
"This issue is why some, including Michelle of this blog, have advocated the monitoring of a relative Niño-3.4 or relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center monitors the RONI here. The RONI is simply our standard ONI (3-month average Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly) with the tropical average sea surface temperature subtracted. Such an index is less sensitive to a warming climate and, consistent with some of my earlier research, is more closely connected with changes in the tropical atmosphere than the standard ONI."
------------------------------
Since 2016, the RONI has averaged 0.4 C lower than ONI due to accelerated tropical ocean warming. So, my take is that the El Niño threshold based on RONI currently requires the ONI to reach +0.9 C instead of just +0.5 C and remain there for five straight trimonths to allow the atmosphere to act like there is a 3.4 based El Niño. Taking this further based on RONI:
- moderate Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.4 C instead of just +1.0 C
- strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.9 C instead of just +1.5 C
- super strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +2.4 C instead of just +2.0 C
RONI might explain why the atmosphere in 2018-9 didn't act more typical of El Niño. Based on RONI, it would have been only warm neutral instead of weak El Niño.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... cking-door
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ENSO: CPC May Update: Still El NIño Watch / 93% Chance of El Niño for ASO
Excellent post, Larry! Thank you very much for mentioning that idea from the ENSO blog which applies the idea of relative Nino index to the upcoming potential Nino.
LarryWx wrote:jconsor wrote:
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1656732134302679060
Directly related to your Tweet above regarding the idea of subtracting the warming of tropical oceans from the Nino 3.4 SSTA to produce a "relative Nino 3.4 index" or "RONI":
"Another factor to consider is that the widespread ocean warmth may make it a little more challenging for the warm temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific to induce a tropical atmospheric response (maybe a reason for the current ENSO-neutral looking tropical atmosphere?). The reason is that the response of the tropical atmosphere depends on surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific relative to the surrounding regions. If those surrounding tropical regions are also warmer than average, then the bar is even higher for the Niño-3.4 region surface temperature anomalies to induce an atmospheric response (see footnote).
The bottom line is that in terms of a push on the tropical atmosphere, we need to consider that the Niño-3.4 index may punch below its weight while it’s hovering in borderline El Niño territory, as it is now. However, if the central-eastern Pacific continues to warm up, we can expect that the atmosphere will feel that push eventually."
Footnote:
"This issue is why some, including Michelle of this blog, have advocated the monitoring of a relative Niño-3.4 or relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center monitors the RONI here. The RONI is simply our standard ONI (3-month average Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly) with the tropical average sea surface temperature subtracted. Such an index is less sensitive to a warming climate and, consistent with some of my earlier research, is more closely connected with changes in the tropical atmosphere than the standard ONI."
------------------------------
Since 2016, the RONI has averaged 0.4 C lower than ONI due to accelerated tropical ocean warming. So, my take is that the El Niño threshold based on RONI currently requires the ONI to reach +0.9 C instead of just +0.5 C and remain there for five straight trimonths to allow the atmosphere to act like there is a 3.4 based El Niño. Taking this further based on RONI:
- moderate Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.4 C instead of just +1.0 C
- strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.9 C instead of just +1.5 C
- super strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +2.4 C instead of just +2.0 C
RONI might explain why the atmosphere in 2018-9 didn't act more typical of El Niño. Based on RONI, it would have been only warm neutral instead of weak El Niño.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... cking-door
3 likes
- Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
90-Day SOI is now in the negatives. Daily SOI is on a 4 day streak of -20 or lower.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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