Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

[CrazyC83]

I went through the FSU phase analysis, and it had it as a moderately strong, symmetric warm core. That strengthens the opinion that it was a TC.

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gf ... 712/9.html

[cycloneye]

Regardless if is upgraded or not at post season analysis, it was a pretty interesting mid January system to track that caught the attention of many people in the social media world.

[PavelGaborik10]

I agree that this appeared to qualify for an upgraded to a subtropical storm with about 50kt wind, so why didn't the NHC upgrade it and start advisories? I've heard two reasons from sources at the NHC.

1. The storm would be a short-lived marine threat and could be handled by standard marine warnings. Its impact on Nova Scotia is considerably less than from the very large low over the area already. Eastern Nova Scotia is reporting a west wind at 15-20 kts as it passes. No big deal. Small storm with minimal impact to shipping.

2. Staffing issues. I heard that a number of forecasters were out on vacation and remaining staff were too busy to issue advisories every 6 hrs with intermediate updates.

I know that one forecaster in the analysis branch started Dvorak estimates on Sunday (1.0 then), but those Dvorak estimates were discontinued Sunday night by the next forecaster.

Clearly, the NHC had determined early on that this would be a minimal threat and that issuing advisories would not be any significant benefit to the general public or shipping. This fits within the NHC's primary goal of public safety. Issuing advisories above the standard marine warnings would not increase public safety. The NHC's goal is not to immediately name everything possible so that the database is always accurate. They can go back and review the storm and decide if it should be added to the data record at the end of the 2023 season.

Sable Island just to the E of Eastern Cape Breton recorded a peak gust of 109 KM/H, Eastern CB recorded a peak gust of 85 KM/H on the extreme Eastern tip of the island, while the strongest winds remained offshore.

[Iceresistance]

I agree that this appeared to qualify for an upgraded to a subtropical storm with about 50kt wind, so why didn't the NHC upgrade it and start advisories? I've heard two reasons from sources at the NHC.

1. The storm would be a short-lived marine threat and could be handled by standard marine warnings. Its impact on Nova Scotia is considerably less than from the very large low over the area already. Eastern Nova Scotia is reporting a west wind at 15-20 kts as it passes. No big deal. Small storm with minimal impact to shipping.

2. Staffing issues. I heard that a number of forecasters were out on vacation and remaining staff were too busy to issue advisories every 6 hrs with intermediate updates.

I know that one forecaster in the analysis branch started Dvorak estimates on Sunday (1.0 then), but those Dvorak estimates were discontinued Sunday night by the next forecaster.

Clearly, the NHC had determined early on that this would be a minimal threat and that issuing advisories would not be any significant benefit to the general public or shipping. This fits within the NHC's primary goal of public safety. Issuing advisories above the standard marine warnings would not increase public safety. The NHC's goal is not to immediately name everything possible so that the database is always accurate. They can go back and review the storm and decide if it should be added to the data record at the end of the 2023 season.

Sable Island just to the E of Eastern Cape Breton recorded a peak gust of 109 KM/H, Eastern CB recorded a peak gust of 85 KM/H on the extreme Eastern tip of the island, while the strongest winds remained offshore.

For those who don't know the conversion:

109 km/h = 67.73 mph
85 km/h = 51.89 mph

Formula: Multiply (mph to km/h) or divide (km/h to mph) by 1.609

[CrazyC83]

I agree that this appeared to qualify for an upgraded to a subtropical storm with about 50kt wind, so why didn't the NHC upgrade it and start advisories? I've heard two reasons from sources at the NHC.

1. The storm would be a short-lived marine threat and could be handled by standard marine warnings. Its impact on Nova Scotia is considerably less than from the very large low over the area already. Eastern Nova Scotia is reporting a west wind at 15-20 kts as it passes. No big deal. Small storm with minimal impact to shipping.

2. Staffing issues. I heard that a number of forecasters were out on vacation and remaining staff were too busy to issue advisories every 6 hrs with intermediate updates.

I know that one forecaster in the analysis branch started Dvorak estimates on Sunday (1.0 then), but those Dvorak estimates were discontinued Sunday night by the next forecaster.

Clearly, the NHC had determined early on that this would be a minimal threat and that issuing advisories would not be any significant benefit to the general public or shipping. This fits within the NHC's primary goal of public safety. Issuing advisories above the standard marine warnings would not increase public safety. The NHC's goal is not to immediately name everything possible so that the database is always accurate. They can go back and review the storm and decide if it should be added to the data record at the end of the 2023 season.

Sable Island just to the E of Eastern Cape Breton recorded a peak gust of 109 KM/H, Eastern CB recorded a peak gust of 85 KM/H on the extreme Eastern tip of the island, while the strongest winds remained offshore.

For those who don't know the conversion:

109 km/h = 67.73 mph
85 km/h = 51.89 mph

Formula: Multiply (mph to km/h) or divide (km/h to mph) by 1.609

I think the highest sustained winds in Cape Breton were just below tropical storm force. That lends itself well to an intensity around 40 kt under the assumption the winds were stronger offshore.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that this appeared to qualify for an upgraded to a subtropical storm with about 50kt wind, so why didn't the NHC upgrade it and start advisories? I've heard two reasons from sources at the NHC.

1. The storm would be a short-lived marine threat and could be handled by standard marine warnings. Its impact on Nova Scotia is considerably less than from the very large low over the area already. Eastern Nova Scotia is reporting a west wind at 15-20 kts as it passes. No big deal. Small storm with minimal impact to shipping.

2. Staffing issues. I heard that a number of forecasters were out on vacation and remaining staff were too busy to issue advisories every 6 hrs with intermediate updates.

I know that one forecaster in the analysis branch started Dvorak estimates on Sunday (1.0 then), but those Dvorak estimates were discontinued Sunday night by the next forecaster.

Clearly, the NHC had determined early on that this would be a minimal threat and that issuing advisories would not be any significant benefit to the general public or shipping. This fits within the NHC's primary goal of public safety. Issuing advisories above the standard marine warnings would not increase public safety. The NHC's goal is not to immediately name everything possible so that the database is always accurate. They can go back and review the storm and decide if it should be added to the data record at the end of the 2023 season.

If that's the case, I wonder why staffing issues didn't stop Alex 2016 from being named.

That said, Alex was named more than a full day after post-analysis determined it became a TC/STC.

[cycloneye]

Look at the whole evolution that this low went thru.

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1615762684951003176

[jconsor]

Check again. KMTP is Montauk Point, NY.

Wow what a landfall. A tropical system making landfall in Canada!
In January!

No, not a TS or even an STS this morning. Just a weak low that isn't producing any significant wind. Check out the observations from a station on the eastern tip of Nova Scotia. Peak wind 270 at 9 kts gusting 16 kts. Just a brief STS yesterday and nearly a remnant low today.

KMTP 171254Z AUTO 27009G16KT 03/M03 A2973 RMK AO1 SLP067 T00331028
KMTP 171154Z AUTO 28007KT 03/M03 A2973 RMK AO1 SLP065 70002 T00331028 10039 20028 51007
KMTP 171054Z AUTO 28008KT 03/M03 A2972 RMK AO1 SLP062 T00331028
KMTP 170954Z AUTO 29008G17KT 03/M03 A2972 RMK AO1 SLP063 T00331028
KMTP 170854Z AUTO 30009G16KT 03/M03 A2971 RMK AO1 SLP059 T00281028 56002
KMTP 170754Z AUTO 30008KT 03/M03 A2971 RMK AO1 SLP060 T00281028

[jconsor]

A thread on 90L's impacts. Little doubt from my perspective this will be declared a subtropical storm post-season. Unlike many other recent wintertime (sub)tropical storms, it had significant land impacts in North America (in this case, the eastern Maritimes of Canada).

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1616073493304442882




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1616074779492257792




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1616076654131937280

[wxman57]

I agree that this appeared to qualify for an upgraded to a subtropical storm with about 50kt wind, so why didn't the NHC upgrade it and start advisories? I've heard two reasons from sources at the NHC.

1. The storm would be a short-lived marine threat and could be handled by standard marine warnings. Its impact on Nova Scotia is considerably less than from the very large low over the area already. Eastern Nova Scotia is reporting a west wind at 15-20 kts as it passes. No big deal. Small storm with minimal impact to shipping.

2. Staffing issues. I heard that a number of forecasters were out on vacation and remaining staff were too busy to issue advisories every 6 hrs with intermediate updates.

I know that one forecaster in the analysis branch started Dvorak estimates on Sunday (1.0 then), but those Dvorak estimates were discontinued Sunday night by the next forecaster.

Clearly, the NHC had determined early on that this would be a minimal threat and that issuing advisories would not be any significant benefit to the general public or shipping. This fits within the NHC's primary goal of public safety. Issuing advisories above the standard marine warnings would not increase public safety. The NHC's goal is not to immediately name everything possible so that the database is always accurate. They can go back and review the storm and decide if it should be added to the data record at the end of the 2023 season.

If that's the case, I wonder why staffing issues didn't stop Alex 2016 from being named.

Staffing issues can be dynamic, depending on who is out on vacation and when. I wasn't suggesting that the NHC is understaffed as a whole, just that people were out of the office at that time. At least, that's what was suggested to me by an employee there. This storm was never expected to have any significant impact on Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. The larger low already over those areas was producing more wind than this storm would. No good reason to issue advisories. They can review it next winter and decide whether it will be added to the database as an unnamed STS. No harm.

[PavelGaborik10]

Sable Island just to the E of Eastern Cape Breton recorded a peak gust of 109 KM/H, Eastern CB recorded a peak gust of 85 KM/H on the extreme Eastern tip of the island, while the strongest winds remained offshore.

For those who don't know the conversion:

109 km/h = 67.73 mph
85 km/h = 51.89 mph

Formula: Multiply (mph to km/h) or divide (km/h to mph) by 1.609

I think the highest sustained winds in Cape Breton were just below tropical storm force. That lends itself well to an intensity around 40 kt under the assumption the winds were stronger offshore.

There were sustained TS forced winds attached with those 85 KM/H gusts.

They were minimal TS strength at 40 MPH, but considering the strongest winds almost surely stayed offshore and we have a weather station supporting TS forced winds I don't think there's any denying it at this point.

[Landy]

NHC has just confirmed that this was indeed a subtropical storm! TCR to follow in a couple of months.

[tolakram]

+1 to all those preliminary guesses?

[Iceresistance]

+1 to all those preliminary guesses?

Yes

[DorkyMcDorkface]

That makes it 7/8 seasons in which the Atlantic has produced an off-season system. Streak was broken last year of course but maybe we've started a new one

[Category5Kaiju]

Perhaps this means that what would have been Idalia for the 2023 season now becomes Harold, so we manage to avoid the I curse for once

Take that Mother Nature!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1656679083995004929

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1656679083995004929

[Sciencerocks]

Great news, but I believe it was a tropical cyclone and possibly borderline hurricane. This was a very respectable storm for Canada and it should have had advisories written at the time. This is just how I feel about this system.

[Teban54]

This is something you don't see very often...