BoB: MOCHA - Post-Tropical

[Category5Kaiju]

I really hope people in Bangladesh and Myanmar evacuate to safety. This is a very serious situation, and I would hate to see this end up as a Nargis-like situation.

[mrbagyo]

Myanmar Composite

[Iceresistance]

Myanmar Composite

https://i.imgur.com/woSnU8z.gif

Do you have a link to the radar site?

[Iceresistance]

AMSU is estimating this at 156 knots (180 mph) and 904 mb.

[mrbagyo]

Myanmar Composite

https://i.imgur.com/woSnU8z.gif

Do you have a link to the radar site?

Myanmar Composite - https://t.co/YDtXEi3lAR

[CrazyC83]

Those river valley entrances are going to be a storm surge funnel. It is a fairly compact storm though, which may keep it from being like Nargis, but still...

[MarioProtVI]

Had a strong feeling when I woke up this morning that it would eventually reach C5, even though officially it would’ve been a debate if JTWC didn’t. Horrible scenario setting up but I really hope this doesn’t become another Nargis. If it tries EWRCing again near landfall that’s a nightmare waiting to happen.

[Blown Away]

In 2023 with much better awareness is it possible to avoid mass refugee casualties with cyclones in this part of the world? Geez this storm looks so bad on the IR heading towards the coast…

[Hayabusa]

WOW SMAP at 13/23Z or 4 hours ago recorded 10 min 152 knots which means in 1 minute it's 163 knots!

IO, 01, 202305132348, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1870N, 9180E, , 1, 152, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , B, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

[Subtrop]

IO, 01, 2023051400, , BEST, 0, 187N, 916E, 145, 919, ST,

[mrbagyo]

Ayo, they revised the 00z intensity to 145 knots

01B MOCHA 230514 0000 18.7N 91.6E IO 145 919

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This cyclone could unleash a terrible disaster because it will make landfall as a category 3 near Cox's Bazar. There is a huge poorly constructed Rohingya refugee camp located there. I heard on CNA news from Singapore that Bangladeshi authorities will not allow the Rohingya to evacuate further into the hinterland. They are afraid most will not voluntarily return post-event as they've been there for years in legal limbo. I'm very worried about what might happen.

[mrbagyo]

Sittwe is down to 992 hPa as of 0300 UTC

[CrazyC83]

WOW SMAP at 13/23Z or 4 hours ago recorded 10 min 152 knots which means in 1 minute it's 163 knots!

IO, 01, 202305132348, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1870N, 9180E, , 1, 152, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , B, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

That seems a bit high but wouldn't be surprised. I think it likely peaked at 150 kt around 00Z, and has likely dropped a bit since. I know if this was in NHC territory, advisories would be hourly now because of landfall and the eye on radar.

[Category5Kaiju]

This cyclone could unleash a terrible disaster because it will make landfall as a category 3 near Cox's Bazar. There is a huge poorly constructed Rohingya refugee camp located there. I heard on CNA news from Singapore that Bangladeshi authorities will not allow the Rohingya to evacuate further into the hinterland. They are afraid most will not voluntarily return post-event as they've been there for years in legal limbo. I'm very worried about what might happen.

It also really does not help that in recent years, Myanmar has been dealing with various nasty conflicts between the citizens and the military government. A Category 5 cyclone is the last thing that country needs.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This cyclone could unleash a terrible disaster because it will make landfall as a category 3 near Cox's Bazar. There is a huge poorly constructed Rohingya refugee camp located there. I heard on CNA news from Singapore that Bangladeshi authorities will not allow the Rohingya to evacuate further into the hinterland. They are afraid most will not voluntarily return post-event as they've been there for years in legal limbo. I'm very worried about what might happen.

It also really does not help that in recent years, Myanmar has been dealing with various nasty conflicts between the citizens and the military government. A Category 5 cyclone is the last thing that country needs.

Indeed, it could be very bad for everyone involved.

[Subtrop]

01B MOCHA 230514 0000 18.7N 91.6E IO 150 919

[mrbagyo]

Current situation in Sittwe ahead of Mocha's landfall, looks like the surge is slowly coming in.
 https://twitter.com/akmoe2/status/1657561832821760000




 https://twitter.com/ashimmitra/status/1657609146533924864

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

01B MOCHA 230514 0600 19.8N 92.5E IO 135 918