SIO: FABIEN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

92S INVEST 230512 1800 2.5S 86.4E SHEM 20 1007

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.3S
86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 894 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURING WITH BUILDING CONVECTION OVER AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL 121204Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF
LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 92S IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AN IMPRESSIVE 850MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE, MODERATE (15-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GFS, NAVGEM, AND CMC DETERMINISTIC MODELS,
ALONG WITH A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, INDICATE A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. WHEREAS THE EC AND ICON DETERMINISTIC MODELS,
ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF ECENS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SHOW A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.3S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.8S 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 832 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
130049Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
130317Z ASCAT-B PASS HIGHLIGHTS AN OUTER BAND OF 35-40KT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC UNDER THE FLARING CONVECTION AND A BROAD AND
ELONGATED LLCC DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO LOW-TO-
MODERATE (15-20KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS AGREE THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK WHILE SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.3S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8SS 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 731 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DEAGIO GARCIA, UK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 131957Z 165.5 GHZ ATMS IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LLC WITH
WRAPPING BANDED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20) VWS, GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW,
AND WARM SST (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO
32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[MarioProtVI]

Anyone think Mocha is causing the JTWC to sleep on this cause it definitely looks like a TC now?

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/135knots/status/1657567102738333696

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/LckyTuba/status/1657762893952086025

[cycloneye]

Looks impressive.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

Ok but the name of this system is Fabien or Fabian?

[cycloneye]

Ok but the name of this system is Fabien or Fabian?

Good question. In the bulletin, they have both.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

19S FABIEN 230515 0000 5.3S 79.2E SHEM 75 969

It may reach Cat 4 tomorrow morning if this (V)RI trend continues.

[aspen]

Where did Fabian’s imagery on Tropical Tidbits go?

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1657928730130391042