ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[AlanSnyder35]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1659168998150512641

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1659276932788154369

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1659168998150512641

Agree here. Something we were all wary about since Jan/Feb.

[dexterlabio]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1659168998150512641

Agree here. Something we were all wary about since Jan/Feb.

If I remember correctly this is one of 2014's problems

[LarryWx]

Today's SOI rose only barely/much less than I thought with it still down at -9.48. That now tells me that the -SOI streak is safe to continue for a good number more days with it now at 11 days. It should end up at 17+ days as it looks now.

 Due to the combo of way above normal Darwin and significantly below normal Tahiti SLP, the GFS and Euro are suggesting a sub -50 SOI is quite possible on May 23rd. That would mean the lowest daily SOI since at least the -52 of 2/17/2017 and possibly the lowest since the -58 of 2/6/2010! It would also mean the lowest daily May SOI since 1997.

 May MTD is now at -8.3. With this very strong -SOI period coming next week, a sub -10 May of 2023 is now just about a certainty. That is a very strong indicator for an oncoming El Niño of an unknown magnitude.

[LarryWx]

Per ONI I still favor a strong fall/winter peak but with high end moderate (+1.3 to +1.4) on the low side and super (+2.0+) on the high side. That puts me +1.6 to +1.9 for most likely.

But per RONI assuming a -0.4 adjustment due to very warm overall tropical SSTAs, anywhere from a high end weak (+0.9) to low end super (near +2.0) is reasonably possible for the fall/winter peak with +1.2 to +1.5 for most likely.

Redifining Nino indices in a warming climate (relates to RONI):

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... abe9ed/pdf

[cycloneye]

Phil with the arrow on one line. The others are less warm.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1659602045559767043

[Monsoonjr99]

Quite the mixed signals we got here. Will the El Niño become strong or will this be something similar to 2014 with the fast start but struggling to strengthen over the summer/fall? At least we can be confident that 2023 isn't going to be -ENSO.

[LemieT]

Speaking with some friends of mine last year, one of them suggested that the atmosphere needed a reset after 3 Ninas back to back...
One thing is for certain, there is a lot of uncertainty. Everyone is having to dig deep into their knowledge base and stretch themselves with what's in front of us. 2023 will propel the Met/WX community's collective understanding in many ways...

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1659168998150512641

Agree here. Something we were all wary about since Jan/Feb.

If I remember correctly this is one of 2014's problems

Even 2014 and 2009 are begining to become less as analogs.

2014 had a warmer subsurface so far and a more El Nino conducive 850 zonal wind profile.

2009 had a similar wind profile but a cooler subsurface so far.

Both had signed no competes with the Atlantic -- Atlantic was coolor. Much different than what we're seeing in 2023.

[cycloneye]

Will Typhoon Mawar help warm the equatorial Pacific with the westerlies?

[LarryWx]

Today's SOI came in at ~-26. I'm very roughly estimating the next four days to come in at -35, -57 (lowest daily since 2/6/2010), -50, and -33 followed by a rapid rise. We appear to be looking at ~-12 for May as a whole, a solid indicator for an upcoming Nino of difficult to predict magnitude.

[cycloneye]

Will Typhoon Mawar help warm the equatorial Pacific with the westerlies?

Who answers this very important question?

[Kingarabian]

Will Typhoon Mawar help warm the equatorial Pacific with the westerlies?

Typhoon Mawar itself won't help warm ENSO but it is a by-product of a strong WWB. Strong WWB's usually help create downwelling KW's that transfer warmth through the subsurface from the WPAC to the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Will Typhoon Mawar help warm the equatorial Pacific with the westerlies?

Typhoon Mawar itself won't help warm ENSO but it is a by-product of a strong WWB. Strong WWB's usually help create downwelling KW's that transfer warmth through the subsurface from the WPAC to the EPAC.

Thank you for the answer. Let's see what occurs in the next few weeks.

[LarryWx]

The volatile Nino 1+2 region weekly SST anomaly just released (for last week) dropped pretty sharply from +2.4 to +1.7, the coolest in two months. The other regions changed little or none.

The daily SOI plunged to -43. It will be even lower tomorrow, which should be the low point of the month.

[cycloneye]

Here is the link to the weekly CPC update of 5/22/23.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1660660844005412864

[Kingarabian]

That's NCEPs bias again. All the other models keep it moving.

[dexterlabio]

I wonder what the PDO reading will be for the month of May.