WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎191200
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎191200UTC ‎06.0N ‎149.0E ‎POOR
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎1006HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎201200UTC ‎06.6N ‎148.8E ‎80NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎1002HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
48HF ‎ ‎211200UTC ‎08.4N ‎147.5E ‎130NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT
72HF ‎ ‎221200UTC ‎10.9N ‎146.3E ‎200NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎07KT
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎055KT
GUST ‎ ‎080KT
96HF ‎ ‎231200UTC ‎13.9N ‎145.2E ‎280NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎975HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎065KT
GUST ‎ ‎095KT
120HF ‎241200UTC ‎16.5N ‎144.2E ‎390NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎07KT
PRES ‎ ‎965HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎075KT
GUST ‎ ‎105KT ‎=

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1659586648370290690

[cycloneye]

Organizing.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

12Z EPS still large spread

[LemieT]

Is this depression a young "Tip" in the making? It's HUGE!

[cycloneye]

JTWC will upgrade to TD 02W.

WP, 02, 2023052000, , BEST, 0, 54N, 1491E, 25, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 240, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpB72023 to wp022023,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 022023.dat

[Hayabusa]

18Z EPS more western component?

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

US better send a recon on this one as this would threaten one of their territory.

[Hayabusa]

00Z ICON is more west looks like it wants to go to Northern Luzon.

[Sciencerocks]

[mrbagyo]

00z GFS is also more west, takes it to the Ryukyus

sea level pressure at WMO 91334 - Weno island (7.5N 151.8E) in Chuuk lagoon is 1005 hPa as of 06z

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PTKK.html

[Hayabusa]

00Z Euro more west, tracks near RoT

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎200600
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2302 ‎MAWAR ‎(2302) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎200600UTC ‎06.6N ‎148.9E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎ALMOST ‎STATIONARY
PRES ‎ ‎1000HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎240NM
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎210600UTC ‎07.7N ‎148.4E ‎65NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎045KT
GUST ‎ ‎065KT
48HF ‎ ‎220600UTC ‎10.2N ‎146.9E ‎120NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎07KT
PRES ‎ ‎985HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎060KT
GUST ‎ ‎085KT
72HF ‎ ‎230600UTC ‎12.9N ‎145.9E ‎180NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎07KT
PRES ‎ ‎975HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎070KT
GUST ‎ ‎100KT
96HF ‎ ‎240600UTC ‎14.9N ‎144.0E ‎260NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎07KT
PRES ‎ ‎955HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎080KT
GUST ‎ ‎115KT
120HF ‎250600UTC ‎16.9N ‎140.3E ‎360NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎940HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎090KT
GUST ‎ ‎130KT ‎=

[Sciencerocks]

[mrbagyo]

00z SYNOP from 91324 (Paluwat) 07 21N , 149 12E
AAXX 20004 91324 nil 91329 10294 20261 30200 40203 60094 70282 80908 8637/ 333 56299 58014 70089 86918 88362 555 92000

Pressure was 1020.3 hPa. It's either the Barometer is miscalibrated or there's a typo on the SYNOP (might be 1002.3?)

Wind speed at 29 knots.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/CyanideCN_/status/1659797674881855490

[Hayabusa]

00z SYNOP from 91324 (Paluwat) 07 21N , 149 12E
AAXX 20004 91324 nil 91329 10294 20261 30200 40203 60094 70282 80908 8637/ 333 56299 58014 70089 86918 88362 555 92000

Barometer is probably miscalibrated with a reading of 1020 hPa

Wind speed at 29 knots.

I think the format is wrong, 91329 is a synop station too and the NIL after 91324 means no synop data
Here's the correct synop for 91329 at 00Z, notice the visibility group (11474) is missing above and the cloud cover wind direction group (80908) is placed after the rainfall group (60094) which is wrong it should be placed after the visibility group

AAXX 20004 91329 11474 80908 10294 20261 30200 40203 60094 70282 8637/ 333 56299 58014 70089 86918 88362 555 92000

Latest 06Z synop

AAXX 20064 91329 11474 80909 10267 20244 30125 40128 60341 70282 8422/ 333 56299 70432 84818 88462 555 92006

What I think happened here is there wasn't supposed to be a synop for 91324 at 00Z but the communicator/encoder for transmitting the synop to the GTS might've forgot to put a newline
it should be transmitted like this:

91324 NIL=
91329 11474 80908 10294 20261 30200 40203 60094 70282 8637/ 333 56299 58014 70089 86918 88362 555 92000=