Hurricane Erika

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A fast moving cyclone that was upgraded just at landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html

Radar a hour or so from landfall



Ir at landfall

[Sciencerocks]

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS FOUND A SMALL POORLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 47 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 1011 MB AND A NORTHWEST WIND ABOUT 300 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE....WITH NO DATA AVAILABLE FROM BELOW. THE INFORMATION FROM
THE PLANE IN COMBINATION WITH THE WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON BOTH
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SUPPORTS UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA AT THIS TIME. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD BRING
ERIKA INLAND AS A HURRICANE.

ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THERE IS A PERSISTENT STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES PROVIDING
A WESTWARD STEERING TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ERIKA
SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL EITHER IN SOUTHERN TEXAS OR
NORTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 26.2N 84.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 87.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 92.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 95.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 105.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED




ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THIS EVENING FOUND A MUCH BETTER DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 47 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS AT 1500 FT...WHICH EQUATES TO
ABUT 38 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE THE LAST RECON WIND REPORTS...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/20. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN PROPAGATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS...BUT THAT MOTION IS BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
REGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG DURING THE NIGHT
AS THE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT
THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE WESTWARD. AT 500 MB...ALL OF THE
GLOBALS MODELS MAINTAIN THE SAME DISTANCE BETWEEN ERIKA AND A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS
BOTH SYSTEMS MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM. THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES A
LITTLE MURKY AFTER 24 HOURS AS ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL
WEAKEN ERIKA SIGNIFICANTLY...AND TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
JUST BEFORE IT REACHES THE WESTERN GULF COAST SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING INSTEAD OF
WEAKENING TO OCCUR...ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
SYSTEM AND BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THAT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE MAINTAINING
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE FARTHER
NORTH INITIAL POSITION AND FASTER MOTION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS TRACK SCENARIO IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS...AND THE GLOBAL
MODEL'S MID-LEVEL CENTER TRACK POSITIONS. SINCE THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO BOCA SANTA MARIA
MEXICO.

ERIKA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE LAST RECON REPORTS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MOVING QUITE
FAST AND THAT WILL LIMIT THE TIME THAT ERIKA WILL HAVE TO
STRENGTHEN. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR SUCH A FAST
MOVING TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE FAST MOTION IS KEEPING THE
CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN
JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AT A TIME. THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN.
AFTER THAT TIME...SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR RIGHT
UP UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO NEAR 70-75
KT AT LANDFALL. THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS ERIKA TO BELOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 26.6N 86.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 26.5N 89.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 26.5N 93.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 26.4N 97.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 26.3N 99.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 18/0000Z 26.5N 104.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/21...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER. THE GUIDANCE MODELS
INDICATE A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASING TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THIS TRACK
BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST IN 36 HOURS AND INLAND IN 48 HOURS.
IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE WHY THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD DECREASE SO MUCH
AS THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE STORM EMBEDDED WESTWARD DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. PERHAPS
A RIDGE IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM OR THE ANTICYCLONE
MAY BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN. IN ANY CASE...ALL OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THIS SLOWING DOWN AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND 50 KT AT A LOCATION 60 N MI NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AT 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL AND 1008 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THIS DATA. THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD ON INFRARED IMAGERY WITH
A BANDING FEATURE AROUND THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND ANOTHER STARTING
TO EXTEND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER IS VERY NEAR BUOY 42001
AT THIS TIME.

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MODEST STRENGTHENING BUT NOT TO HURRICANE
FORCE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL DOES AND ALSO SHOWS
THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAPID DEEPENING. SO A FORECAST OF 65 KT
BEFORE LANDFALL STILL WORKS. MY ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER TO PUT UP
A HURRICANE WARNING OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS MORNING. THE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE PATH OF
LEAST REGRET IS A HURRICANE WARNING. LETS GO WITH TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...TO BE UPGRADED LATER IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING IS
OBSERVED TO BEGIN.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 26.3N 89.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 26.2N 92.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 95.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 25.8N 98.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 25.4N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
72HR VT 18/0600Z 26.5N 102.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
96HR VT 19/0600Z...INLAND DISSIPATED
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003

THE LAST RECON NEAR 12Z INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINED
AT 1008 MB. HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT SHOW WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS...A GOOD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN
ADDITION...A SHIP LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED 40
KNOTS AT 12Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AND ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS CONTROLLING THE STEERING CURRENTS
AND BECAUSE THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST....A CONTINUED
WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WOULD BRING ERIKA TO THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
MAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 26.1N 91.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 26.1N 94.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0000Z 26.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED



TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERIKA IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS LARGE CURVED
BANDS...GOOD OUTFLOW AND VERY STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000
MB BUT MAX WIND AT 850 MB ARE 57 KNOTS SO FAR. THIS CORRESPONDS
WITH 45 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
AGENCIES SUGGEST 55 KNOT WINDS. ASSUMING THAT THE AIRPLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE MAXIMUM WINDS YET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF BOTH SATELLITE AND RECON ESTIMATES.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IT
IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION. ERIKA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 19 KNOTS. A PERSISTENT LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL LIKELY FORCE
ERIKA TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE HIGH IS SO STRONG THAT
ERIKA COULD EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS SUGGESTED BY
SOME TRACK MODELS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ERIKA TO
THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED MAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.

NOTE: ALTHOUGH ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KNOT
HURRICANE...INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN. THE FORMATION OF AN
INNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT BASICALLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST...COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AT
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE
AT THE TPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 26.0N 93.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 96.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0600Z 26.0N 103.0W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 106.0W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1800Z...INLAND


NNNN




TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003

CORRECT CLAUDETTE TO ERIKA IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

WSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES THAT ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED
A ROUGHLY 30 NM WIDE EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC SURROUNDING CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE JUST
EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
992 MB...AS THE EYE DROP REPORTING 998 MB APPARENTLY MISSED THE
CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 67 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AT 700 MB. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/18. ERIKA IS SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
GET LEFT BEHIND BY ERIKA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE MUCH DECELERATION
CAN OCCUR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A GRADUALLY DECELERATING WESTWARD MOTION
UNTIL ERIKA DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

ERIKA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE STORM IS
IN A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. INDEED...ALL
FIVE OF THE EXPERIMENTAL CRITERIA FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHIPS MODEL ARE MET. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION
IS THAT THE STORM SHOULD RUN AGROUND IN 6-9 HR. ERIKA WILL LIKELY
MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-70 KT HURRICANE...BUT IF A BURST OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS IT COULD BE STRONGER. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR
AFTER LANDFALL AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE AT THE
TPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 26.0N 95.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/0000Z 26.0N 101.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1200Z 26.0N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED




TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/16. AL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A
CONTINUED WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AFTER WHICH DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 24 HOURS WHILE THE NOGAPS DOES NOT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT. THE
INITIAL POSITION HAS THE CENTER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CENTER WILL BE INLAND SHORTLY.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN MONITORING ERIKA AND THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIKA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS. ALSO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A FEW MB TO 994
MB. EVEN SO...THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
DOPPLER WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WINDS ALMOST AS
HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SO ERIKA IS CLOSE TO BEING A
HURRICANE. WE MAY NEVER KNOW FOR SURE WHETHER THE WINDS WERE 60 OR
65 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER. FIVE KNOTS IS IN THE NOISE LEVEL.
FINALLY...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE IS ABOUT OVER
AS MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND

ERIKA SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 25.5N 97.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 25.3N 99.3W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 17/0600Z 25.5N 102.0W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Sciencerocks]

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF ERIKA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SO...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ERIKA MAY CAUSE HEAVY RAINS
PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ERIKA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
HURRICANE STATUS AT LANDFALL. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC
WERE ON THE RANGE OF 4.0 AND 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN
ADDITION...HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WIND DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE
REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 91 KNOTS AT 2500 FEET WITHIN A SMALL AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 65 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE 987 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE AND THE CLOSED EYEWALL
REPORTED BY THE RECON.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 25.3N 98.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 25.0N 100.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATING




ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

ERIKA HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED. THERE IS VERY DEEP
CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW BUT LATEST AVAILABLE RADAR DATA
INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES ARE NO LONGER WELL-DEFINED.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS AND FURTHER
WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED. ERIKA HAS
BECOME PRIMARILY A RAIN PRODUCER.

ERIKA IS MOVING ABOUT 255 DEGREES OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. THE
STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP/GFS MODEL
BRINGS A VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT
TWO DAYS AND THEN IT SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT. WE SHALL SEE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 24.6N 99.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 24.0N 102.0W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 24.0N 105.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERIKA HAS REACHED THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE PAST 6 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE AND TAMPICO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MONTERREY AND SALTILLO INDICATE WINDS OF 20 KT OR
LESS. THIS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT ERIKA IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/12. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
ERIKA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
POSSIBLY REACHING THE PACIFIC IN 24-36 HR.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO THE REMAINING UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS
FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 24.8N 100.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 17/1200Z 24.4N 102.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED