Hurricane Danny

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Far north hurricane. Almost made a loop.

[Sciencerocks]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS
POORLY ORGANIZED AND ALTHOUGH BOTH ENVIRONMENTAL AND CENTRAL
PRESSURES ARE VERY HIGH...THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25 KNOT
WINDS. THE SHEAR IS LOW...FAVORING STRENGTHENING BUT THE DEPRESSION
WILL SOON REACH COOLER WATERS SO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. YET...A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING THE
DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE ALREADY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE
WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE NOT VERY STRONG.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.

THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.


FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 31.5N 54.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 33.3N 56.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 35.0N 57.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 56.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 38.5N 55.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 41.0N 51.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 42.0N 48.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 42.0N 44.0W 30 KT


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER AND WITHIN A
CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND SHIPS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS WARM WATER ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST 24HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF A
WARM OCEAN AND LOW SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD REACH TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES
AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE ALREADY NORTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE NOT VERY
STRONG. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 32.4N 55.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 33.7N 56.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 35.5N 56.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 37.5N 55.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 39.0N 54.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 41.5N 50.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 42.0N 45.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 42.0N 40.0W 35 KT





ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THE DEPRESSION DEVELOPED CENTRAL CORE
CONVECTION. SINCE THEN...BANDING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35
KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED ON THIS BASIS. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO
THE NORTHWEST AND EXCELLENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE
IMAGERY...AND THE SURFACE CENTER IS LAGGING THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION BY 30 OR 40 MILES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. DANNY IS
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS
MODELS. DANNY IS UNLIKELY TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

WATER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND DANNY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
STRENGTHEN SOME UNLESS THE SHEAR BECOMES UNEXPECTEDLY LARGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE. ONCE DANNY GETS NORTH OF ABOUT 40 DEGREES LATITUDE...THE
WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING
TREND.

THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON IS WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. DANNY...THE
FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...IS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FOURTH
TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. HOWEVER...PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. SINCE 1900...ONLY TWO
SEASONS HAVE PRODUCED THEIR FOURTH TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM OF
THE YEAR EARLIER THAN JULY 16TH...1959 AND 1997. THESE TWO SEASONS
PRODUCED ONLY 11 AND 8 TROPICAL STORMS...RESPECTIVELY. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THOUGH THAT 1997 WAS AN EL-NINO YEAR AND IS NOT A GOOD
ANALOG FOR 2003.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 32.9N 55.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 56.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 35.5N 56.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 37.5N 55.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 39.0N 54.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 41.5N 49.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 41.5N 43.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED



ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

DANNY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY IMPROVED
BANDING FEATURES AND A 17/0339Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATING A 10 NMI
DIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45
KT BASED ON A 45-KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
VERY CIRCULAR AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/9. RECENT TRMM OVERPASSES AT 0339Z AND
0517Z CONFIRM THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND ALSO A POSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
FIX POSITIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES STRONGLY ON THE FUTURE
INTENSITY OF DANNY AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE OF LITTLE USE EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS AND
ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN MODEL. THE GFS...UKMET...GFDN...AND GFDL
MODELS WEAKEN DANNY FROM THE OUTSET AND LOSE AN IDENTIFIABLE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE ...INFRARED AND
TRMM MCIROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS CLOSER TO BECOMING A
HURRICANE THAN IT IS TO DISSIPATING INTO A NON-ENTITY. SINCE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO
36 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG
ABOUT 35N LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE 5 DAY PERIOD. THE CANADIAN MODEL
HANGS ONTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THROUGH 120 HOURS...WHICH IS
SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS...LBAR..AND ALL THREE BAM MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR DANNY TO MAKE A LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...EXCEPT FOR THE ADDITION OF A 120-HOUR
POSITION. THE MOST RECENT ANALOG FOR A HIGH-LATITUDE CLOCKWISE-
LOOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD BE HURRICANE ALBERTO IN 2000.

DANNY CURRENTLY HAS A CONVECTIVE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF A HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION REMAINS
SMALL...BUT TIGHTLY WOUND AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AS NOTED IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. SUBJECTIVE SST ANALYSES THIS
MORNING INDICATE THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS SSTS TOO COLD
ALONG THE PATH OF DANNY. IN FACT...SSTS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE CURRENT 80F TO NEAR 82 F IN 24 HOURS AS DANNY PASSES OVER OR
NEAR A WARM EDDY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GULFSTREAM NEAR 40N AND
52W. THE WARM SSTS...COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN
AND FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 KT OR LESS...SHOULD ALLOW DANNY TO
REACH AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL 36
HOURS...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER IF THE CYCLONE MAKES A TIGHTER LOOP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST KEEPING IT OVER WARM WATER LONGER.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 33.8N 55.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 35.0N 56.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 36.6N 55.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 38.4N 54.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 39.7N 52.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 41.3N 47.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 41.0N 43.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 39.0N 39.0W 35 KT

[Sciencerocks]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
DANNY IS WELL ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL
UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP A BANDING-TYPE EYE DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT BUT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT
VERY COLD. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON IN TROPICAL CYCLONES AT HIGH
LATITUDES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS...BASED
ON ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND KGWC. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...DANNY
HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 340 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. AS ANTICIPATED DANNY HAS
BEEN MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS..THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE ALREADY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF DANNY BUT THEY DO INDEED SHOW A
VORTMAX MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
LARGER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS A WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. DANNY IS
FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 34.9N 56.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 36.3N 57.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 38.5N 55.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 40.5N 52.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 42.0N 49.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 42.5N 44.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1200Z 42.5N 40.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/1200Z 42.0N 37.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


CZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND IS NO LONGER OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
AND TWO MAIN HOOKING BANDS. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE STORM IS
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS...STRENGHTENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...AND DANNY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT QUITE REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH 65 KNOTS DURING A CONVECTIVE BURST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DANNY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD BE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS ONCE IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
AFTER 48 HOURS...DANNY SHOULD BE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND
WEAKENING. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN SOUTH AROUND THE OTHER SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT SOLUTION BUT THE TURN IS
MORE GRADUAL AND SLOWER.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 35.8N 56.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 37.4N 56.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 39.5N 54.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 42.0N 50.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 20/1800Z 41.5N 37.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1800Z 39.0N 35.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/1800Z 37.0N 35.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL




TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANNY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ONE BURST NEAR THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS TO
BE SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST...AND THERE IS MINIMAL BANDING AT THIS
TIME. AS A RESULT...DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN. THE
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 55 KT BUT I SUSPECT MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH. DANNY HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER REASONABLY WARM WATER
AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW A WEAKENING TREND
UNTIL 36 HOURS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
EXTRATROPICAL FORCING...SO AFTER DANNY PASSES OVER THE COOL WATERS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IT MAY SIMPLY DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 005/10. THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY JUST
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...STEERING CURRENTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF DANNY
MAY MEANDER FOR SOME TIME.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 36.8N 56.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 38.4N 55.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 40.7N 52.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 42.5N 48.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 42.5N 43.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 41.0N 37.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 22/0000Z 38.5N 35.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/0000Z 36.0N 35.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

[Sciencerocks]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/12. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS A
DEEP-LAYER-MEAN ANTICYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 35N 50W FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE STORM AT NEAR 15 KNOTS AROUND
THE ANTICYCLONE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
FORECAST. THERE IS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HOURS.

SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE IN THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE. THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS WITH A RECENT DECENT
BANDING FEATURE. DANNY STILL HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER WARM WATER.
THEN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE STORM BY ABOUT 72 HOURS.
FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO
A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 37.8N 55.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 39.6N 54.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 41.6N 50.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 42.8N 46.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 42.6N 42.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 40.0N 37.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 37.0N 35.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/0600Z 34.5N 36.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

DANNY IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
VERY WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA.
IT HAS VERY WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD. WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS
AT THIS TIME BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...KGWC AND SAB.
IN FACT..LATEST SAB ESTIMATE SUGGESTS THAT DANNY IS A HURRICANE.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS SO...DANNY SHOULD BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND LATER TONIGHT.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS
AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
INCLUDING GFS AND NOGAPS KEEP DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS MOVING AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
ALREADY SOUTH OF THE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.
THIS SORT OF LOOP IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BUT BY
THEN DANNY SHOULD BE A REMANT LOW OR A TROUGH...IF IT EXISTS AT
ALL.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 38.7N 54.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 40.5N 52.5W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 42.0N 48.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 43.0N 45.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 41.5N 40.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 40.0N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 22/1200Z 37.0N 36.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1200Z 34.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW



CZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

DANNY HAS BECOME THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT DANNY HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE.
THIS IN GENERAL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED HURRICANE
STRENGTH. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG SINCE DANNY IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COLD WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN SOON.

DANNY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 15
KNOTS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IF DANNY SURVIVES...THE TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS
BECOMES VERY INTERESTING. MOST OF THE MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...LOOP DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BACK
OVER WARMER WATERS. BY THEN...IT WILL PROBABLY BE A REMNANT LOW OR
A TROUGH...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL...AND TOO WEAK FOR REGENERATION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 39.6N 52.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 41.0N 50.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 42.5N 46.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 41.5N 39.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 39.0N 37.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 22/1800Z 36.0N 38.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 42.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW



HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 18/2254Z
SHOWS THAT DANNY HAS A 15 NM WIDE EYE. GOOD OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. A NOTE ON THE
INTENSITY CONCERNS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. NORMALLY A 65 KT ATLANTIC
HURRICANE HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 987 MB. DANNY HAS BEEN
EMBEDDED IN VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES FOR ALL OF ITS LIFE...AND
THUS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LIKELY MUCH HIGHER THAN 987 MB.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXACT PRESSURE. THIS
PACKAGE WILL USE 1005 MB WITH GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE VALUE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/16. DANNY IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES AND APPROACHING A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS
ROUGHLY ALONG 49W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS. DYNAMICAL
MODELS CALL FOR A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST... WHILE THE
NHC98 AND LBAR CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST
WILL FOLLOW THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CALL FOR DANNY...OR ITS
REMNANTS...TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

DANNY HAS PASSED OVER A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE 26C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM AND IS NOW MOVING INTO COLDER WATER.
WEAKENING IS THUS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SHORTLY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR
AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR. THE FORECAST SOUTHWARD TURN
COULD CARRY DANNY INTO WARMER WATER AFTER 48-72 HR. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY THAT TIME...AND IF DANNY SURVIVES THERE COULD BE
RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR THAT
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR HOW MUCH OF DANNY WILL BE LEFT AFTER
THE NEXT 48-72 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 40.5N 50.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 41.8N 48.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 42.6N 44.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 42.1N 40.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 40.8N 38.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 37.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 23/0000Z 35.5N 38.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 24/0000Z 32.5N 42.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/16. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH DANNY MOVING AROUND A
NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY FORECAST.

INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS. DANNY WILL VERY SOON
MOVE OVER COLDER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING. IF THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES THE COLD WATER AND SOME STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
POSSIBILITY IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS
CHANCE OF OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 41.4N 49.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 42.3N 46.6W 60 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 42.4N 42.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 41.4N 39.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 39.8N 37.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 36.5N 37.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 23/0600Z 34.3N 39.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[Sciencerocks]

CZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THE EYE FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH DANNY AND T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES SUPPORT
65 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS OVER COOL WATERS AND WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS AROUND A
STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS ARE
FORECAST TO LOOP AROUND THE HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
POSSIBILITY IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS
CHANCE OF OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 42.4N 46.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 43.1N 43.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 43.0N 40.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 41.5N 38.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 39.0N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 22/1200Z 36.5N 37.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1200Z 34.5N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/1200Z 33.5N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW




ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

DANNY BEGAN TO WEAKEN BUT STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST 60 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. DANNY WILL CONTINUE OVER COLD WATERS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT
A FASTER PACE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DANNY HAS ALSO BEGAN TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IT WILL BE SOON MAKING A
LONG LOOP AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS
COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS POSSIBILITY
IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS CHANCE OF
OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 42.8N 44.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 43.2N 41.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 42.0N 39.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.0N 37.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 38.5N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 22/1800Z 36.0N 37.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/1800Z 33.5N 44.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW





ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

DANNY HAS SHEARED OFF OVER THE COLDER NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65
KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AT 00Z. THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE REDUCED TO 50 KT GIVEN THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS
OCCURRED SINCE 00Z...ALONG WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/12. DANNY IS MOVING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC...AND ALL DATA INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN SHOULD BEGIN
IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FORECAST DANNY TO PERFORM A LOOP AROUND THE RIDGE AND WIND UP
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO. THE CURRENT TRACK IS
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.

DANNY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IT
MAY WELL BE A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
OR ITS REMAINS WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER IN FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THUS...
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DANNY COULD RE-GENERATE. THIS WILL
REMAIN AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO UNTIL WE CAN SEE HOW MUCH OF DANNY
WILL REMAIN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 42.7N 43.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 42.4N 41.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 40.9N 38.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 39.1N 37.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 22/0000Z 37.5N 37.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/0000Z 35.5N 38.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/0000Z 34.5N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/0000Z 33.5N 44.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW



ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH DANNY HAS CONTINUED
TO SHEAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL
INDICATES A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SEVERAL 45-50 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0
...OR 45 KT...SO THE INTENSITY INTENSITY IS ONLY DECREASED TO 45
KT. ALSO...DRIFTING BUOY 44628 REPORTED AT 06Z A PRESSURE OF 1008.0
MB...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS THE 45 KT INTENSITY. THIS REPORT WAS
ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 105/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. DANNY IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 35N LATITUDE. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN
SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERLY
MOTION IN 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DANNY IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
A LOOP AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OR EVEN WESTWARD
OVER WARMER WATER BY DAY 4 . THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...
GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND REMAINS UNDER 20-25 KT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 24C BENEATH THE CYCLONE...
ABOUT 3C WARMER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...SO
THE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION MAY NOT BE AS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL
IS FORECASTING. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO ONLY 5-10 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SOME REGENERATION
IS POSSIBLE IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DOES NOT WEAKEN TOO MUCH
BEFORE THEN.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 42.4N 41.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 41.6N 39.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 40.0N 37.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 38.5N 37.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 22/0600Z 36.8N 37.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/0600Z 34.8N 39.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/0600Z 33.5N 42.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/0600Z 33.0N 46.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 110/14. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE STORM MOVING AROUND A
NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALL
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IS A SMALL AREA LOCATED ABOUT 175
N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 12Z SHIP REPORT OF 39 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 90 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. EVEN WITH A SMALL
POSITIVE BIAS...THE SHIP SUPPORTS A 40 KNOT INTENSITY AT 12Z. WITH
A WEAKENING TREND IN PROGRESS...THE 15Z WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 35
KNOTS. ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT PURE STATISTICAL CALLS FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING AND DANNY IS FORECAST TO BE A 20 KNOT REMANT LOW IN 24
HOURS. THE TRACK BRINGS DANNY OVER WARMER WATER AND UNDER LESS
VERTICAL SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THE GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT DANNY WILL RE-INTENSIFY.

THE PENN STATE PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS DANNY TO BE COLD CORE. WHILE
DANNY MAY NOT BE EXTRATROPICAL...IT IS CLEARLY NOT VERY TROPICAL
EITHER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 41.6N 40.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 40.6N 38.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 21/1200Z 39.1N 36.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/0000Z 37.5N 36.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1200Z 36.0N 36.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1200Z 34.5N 38.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1200Z 33.5N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 130/15. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING AROUND A
NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALL
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING AND IT IS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 30
KNOTS BASES ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE
ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THEN
WEST ...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATER AND LESS VERTICAL
SHEAR...BUT ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR NOTHING MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. FUTURE
INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FROM THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC..

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 40.4N 38.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 21/0600Z 39.3N 37.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 21/1800Z 37.3N 36.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 36.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1800Z 34.0N 37.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1800Z 32.5N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/1800Z 32.0N 49.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW