2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

I think that the NHC will be mentioning it tomorrow. Frontal associations haven't prevent naming in the past. I'd say 70-80% chance NHC will call it Arlene Friday evening. 100% chance it will be a 35-40 kt low center.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1661071731300204549

Think he's right, the PV cross-section isn't exactly indicative of an (S)TC:

[wxman57]

I don't think that the NHC will ignore a 30-40 kt low affecting the Carolinas right near the start of the hurricane season. Here comes Arlene.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

[cycloneye]

Another day without a mention.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[AlanSnyder35]

I don't think that the NHC will ignore a 30-40 kt low affecting the Carolinas right near the start of the hurricane season. Here comes Arlene.

Don't think they will mark it. they would have done so by now

[wxman57]

One thing I notice is that both the GFS & EC are predicting coastal temps in the 50s Fri/Sat as the low winds up. Not exactly a tropical airmass. Winds offshore 30-45 mph. Coastal winds probably 25-35 mph GA-SC with 3-6 inches of rain. Low inland by Saturday night. Not a pleasant beach weekend.

[Category5Kaiju]

I don't think that the NHC will ignore a 30-40 kt low affecting the Carolinas right near the start of the hurricane season. Here comes Arlene.

Don't think they will mark it. they would have done so by now

A short-lived storm like this probably won't be marked until several days out. The NHC is normally conservative (and understandably so) with these systems, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them mark it at the last minute

[cycloneye]

I think NHC will mention it after this GFS run.

[cycloneye]

I think NHC will mention it after this GFS run.

https://i.imgur.com/3zAPCdg.gif

Well, they did.

[Kingarabian]

I think NHC will mention it after this GFS run.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/3zAPCdg.gif[url]

Something similar in the GOM in about 10 days.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1661913179360833538

[cycloneye]

The new model HAFS will replace HMON and HWRF starting in 2025 but this 2023 season will run in parallel with those two.

https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMI ... ad-modeler

We are at the starting point of the next generation of hurricane forecast modeling.The initial operational capability is expected to replace the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) and the Hurricane in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic Model (HMON). Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 in near real time, we have already seen a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to the best hurricane model today, HWRF. This season, these two older models will also run in parallel with HAFS as we complete the full transition.

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, hurricane modeling team
NOAA ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC & METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY, HURRICANE MODELING TEAM

From left: Xuejin Zhang, Russell St. Fleur, Jun Zhang, Robert Black, Gus Alaka, Lew Gramer, Andy Hazelton, William Barry, Sundararaman (Gopal) Gopalakrishnan, Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko, Hua Leighton, William Ramstrom. Credit: NOAA
NOAA plans to implement the basin-scale HAFS in 2025 and 2026, which is expected to improve prediction of interactions between several tropical cyclones as well as the prediction of how storms behave once they make landfall. This will aid forecasters at NHC with improved products of winds, rainfall and tornado threats inland. NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is also supporting the development of the HAFS ensemble system with a focus on incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products in future.

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_AOML/status/1662168470396760065

[cycloneye]

This is for Saturday June 3rd. ICON has this but the main models don't.

[JetFuel_SE]

The new model HAFS will replace HMON and HWRF starting in 2025 but this 2023 season will run in parallel with those two.

https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMI ... ad-modeler

We are at the starting point of the next generation of hurricane forecast modeling.The initial operational capability is expected to replace the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) and the Hurricane in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic Model (HMON). Running the experimental version of HAFS from 2019 to 2022 in near real time, we have already seen a 10-15% improvement in track predictions compared to the best hurricane model today, HWRF. This season, these two older models will also run in parallel with HAFS as we complete the full transition.

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory, hurricane modeling team
NOAA ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC & METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY, HURRICANE MODELING TEAM

From left: Xuejin Zhang, Russell St. Fleur, Jun Zhang, Robert Black, Gus Alaka, Lew Gramer, Andy Hazelton, William Barry, Sundararaman (Gopal) Gopalakrishnan, Mu-Chieh (Laura) Ko, Hua Leighton, William Ramstrom. Credit: NOAA
NOAA plans to implement the basin-scale HAFS in 2025 and 2026, which is expected to improve prediction of interactions between several tropical cyclones as well as the prediction of how storms behave once they make landfall. This will aid forecasters at NHC with improved products of winds, rainfall and tornado threats inland. NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is also supporting the development of the HAFS ensemble system with a focus on incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products in future.

https://twitter.com/NOAA_AOML/status/1662168470396760065

Damn, didn't think it'd become operational so soon.

[chaser1]

This morning's CMC also showing a 998mb low just east of the Bahamas at the same forecast time frame as well. In fact, EURO has been hinting at disturbed weather and lower pressures for the NW Caribbean and SE GOM with 1002/1003 mb over S. Florida for the same period as well. Kinda looks like an upwelling of E. Pacific moisture in tandem with an eastward migrating mid-level disturbance dropping into the GOM from Texas. Doesn't seem as if the fairly stout mean deep layer Southwesterly flow will allow much time for vertical development to occur. CMC seems to depict a deeper (998mb) further east "go with the flow" departing gift solution east of the Bahamas. Of course that model is always coming up with little "GEM's".

[cycloneye]

Maybe warm core?

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1662923278804045829

[SFLcane]

[Sciencerocks]

:sick:

https://i.postimg.cc/59RRHHRS/IMG-7163.gif

A fay 2008 like track and which will hold this thing down big time as it will be mostly inland. It is possible for an upgrade inland but it is rare. We'll see how this evolves as I'd like to see it develop further west which has been hinted at from other models like ukmet, icon and some runs of the gfs, etc. I think it is probably more likely to develop 100-200 miles west and spend far more time over the gulf which could allow for it to be named.

[cycloneye]

GFS is on board now but it does not begin in GOM.



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