WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

ERC is far from over per the microwave. Another case of IR deception.

Proof? ERC was clearly done by the time radar went out - see my loop.

 https://twitter.com/yellow_evan/status/1661208893622747136

[zzzh]

That was 16h ago

Concentric eyewalls in 3 quadrants with rainband in the north. This is clearly still in ERC.

[Yellow Evan]

The eye has really cleared out and become symmetric the last couple of frames on satellite. It seems this storm did that little island dance where it scoots around the north side of the island like you see sometimes with Hispaniola in the Atlantic.

Possible but Guam is not as mountainous. But a great point as models don't seem to model this out properly. We do see this in Hawaii as well similar to Hispaniola.

I doubt Guam or Hawaii affects the path; more likely just fortuitous wobbles and/or erc at just the right time, changing the geometric center point temporarily. Guam has had direct hits on several occasions. Hispanolia is another story. When we went to Puerto Rico to chase Hugo in 1989, many of the locals in San Juan claimed the Yunque region east of them protected them from direct hits. Recent history has disproved that one.

Hawaii ESPECIALLY the Big Island absolutely affects a TC track. Flow can not go up a mountain barrier at a certain point and must deflect around it (orographic blocking) and most of the Hawaiian Islands have peaks >4000 ft in elevation. We’ve seen multiple systems deflect around the Big Island to where landfall is avoided altogether (Douglas 2020, Flossie 2013, Madeline 2016), often by significant margins.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: That was 16h ago
https://i.imgur.com/P2mqLhE.jpg
Concentric eyewalls in 3 quadrants with rainband in the north. This is clearly still in ERC.

Where is the outer eyewall? All I see is an eye with a singular band that is wrapping 60% around the eye.

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: That was 16h ago
https://i.imgur.com/P2mqLhE.jpg
Concentric eyewalls in 3 quadrants with rainband in the north. This is clearly still in ERC.

This is what a nearly complete ERC looks like, with a weakness on the north side, and given how this is evolving on satellite, that weakness is likely filling in. That outer rain band may eventually trigger another cycle in a day or so, but the first one is clearly in the final stages of completion.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1661457118820544513

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1661436037321871360

[cycloneye]

Discussion of the 21:00 UTC warning:

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.1N 144.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 52 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE,
POWERFUL, EXPANDING (ROMCI NOW AT 455NM), AND VERY SYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN AS IT MAINTAINED A
SHARPLY-OUTLINED 8-NM PINHOLE EYE AFTER IT TRACKED OVER GUAM AND
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA DURING THE DIURNAL MAX NIGHT HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED EIR STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST,
LOW VWS, AND STRONG VENTILATION ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND AMSR2 WIND SPEED DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 125 KTS AT 241623Z
CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 240524Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAWAR IS NOW UNDER THE SOLID STEERING OF
THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ROUND THE
STR AXIS AFTER TAU 96 AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AS
IT AIMS TOWARD TAIWAN. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 145KTS BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, REDUCED MOISTURE INFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER RELATIVELY
COOLER WATER WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 95KTS BY TAU
120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 145NM AT TAU 72 THEN OPENING UP MORE TO
300NM BY TAU 120. THERE ARE NO DISTINCT OUTLIERS IN THE ENVELOPE;
HOWEVER, THE EUROPEAN MODELS, INCLUDING EEMN, ECMWF, AND UKMET ARE
ON THE LEFT MARGIN ON A MORE STRAIGHT-RUNNER TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE
LUZON STRAIT. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 72, THEN
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

[canebeard]

Hawaii ESPECIALLY the Big Island absolutely affects a TC track. Flow can not go up a mountain barrier at a certain point and must deflect around it (orographic blocking) and most of the Hawaiian Islands have peaks >4000 ft in elevation. We’ve seen multiple systems deflect around the Big Island to where landfall is avoided altogether (Douglas 2020, Flossie 2013, Madeline 2016), often by significant margins.

I'm always willing to learn, since I have only observed and studied hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf regions, where the coastline is basically flat. But since the steering currents of tropical cyclones lie mostly between 10,000 and 30,000 ft (mostly halfway between that, depending on the depth of the system), how do, TECHNICALLY please, 4000 ft peaks in general, and a few spots over 10,000 ft. change the steering flow? Yes, it is true that the wind on the lee side of high terrain is weakened, deflected, and changed very locally, but that (orographic) effect is not up at the steering level. I can point out many storms that jogged 20-50 miles suddenly as they approached S. Florida, Mississippi, N. Carolina, and Texass, as well.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/FerragamoWx/status/1661480954974867456

[doomhaMwx]

New MW pass shows the eyewall is no longer open to the north.

[ElectricStorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAY 2023 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 14:10:12 N Lon : 143:34:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 921.3mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +1.0C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 162nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : HIM-9
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.9 degrees

[aspen]

I think Mawar weakened down to a low-end Cat 3 yesterday, and only just regained STY status. It has significantly recovered over the last 6 hours and looks like a storm recon would find 125-130 kt winds in. An unquestionable Cat 5 peak seems pretty likely now.

Guam is (sort of) lucky that Mawar made a last minute jog to the north. It didn’t spare them significant impacts, but at least it wasn’t a direct Cat 4 landfall (if Mawar was even a 4 then). I was starting to think if it didn’t make landfall on Guam, it could miss to to south.

[Hayabusa]

T raw rising

2023MAY25 000000 7.1 918.2 143.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.78 -78.70 EYE 20 IR 77.7 14.24 -143.45 ARCHER HIM-9 17.0

[Hurricane2022]

At WMG territory. JTWC may upgrade it to 140 kt in the next warning

[ElectricStorm]

02W MAWAR 230525 0000 14.3N 143.5E WPAC 135 924

This seems like a good estimate, it's probably not a Cat 5 yet but probably will be by 6z. Needs to get the eye a little more symmetrical IMO

[Hayabusa]

SMAP fix from 4 hours ago 124.7 knots

WP, 02, 202305242043, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1410N, 14410E, , 1, 116, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 103, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202305242043, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1410N, 14410E, , 1, 116, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 61, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202305242043, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1410N, 14410E, , 1, 116, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 50, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

[Hurricane2022]

SMAP fix from 4 hours ago 124.7 knots

WP, 02, 202305242043, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1410N, 14410E, , 1, 116, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 103, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202305242043, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1410N, 14410E, , 1, 116, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 61, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202305242043, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1410N, 14410E, , 1, 116, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 50, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

Yeah probably attained 130 kt just now

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1661540189083430913

[Hayabusa]

18z