WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

06z

[Iceresistance]

Holy crap, that thing is a monster!


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/47654555.gif

[Kingarabian]

That eye is nice and large. Like a bigeye Tuna.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1661740891307126785

[R o x]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1661740891307126785

that should read GUST 175mph i suppose.

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1661740891307126785

that should read GUST 175mph i suppose.

No 150kts is 175mph sustained, JTWC has gusts to 180kts which is around 205mph

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Holy crap, that thing is a monster!

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/47654555.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/47654555.gif

Happy this entered a weakening spell as it approached and impacted Guam before it really blossomed, although impacts were still extensive regardless. Now is the perfect time for it to be a powerful, photogenic cyclone, as it isn't near any major land areas for the time being. Hopefully it does end up missing Taiwan like much of the guidance is suggesting.

[mrbagyo]

Sentinel-2 satellite captured the edge of Typhoon Mawar's eye earlier this morning

[Iceresistance]

that should read GUST 175mph i suppose.

No 150kts is 175mph sustained, JTWC has gusts to 180kts which is around 205mph

is it really ? that is a world record right ?

Yes, but the world record is from 2015 with Patricia, 215 mph SUSTAINED winds!

It looks like it's been a while since you've been here, welcome back.

[mrbagyo]

TERRA (EOS AM-1)


NOAA 20

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/Carl225126302/status/1661752588323246080

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 155 KNOTS BUT COULD EASILY GO HIGHER. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING BY TAU 72. STY 02W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, STY 02W WILL TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN AND WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST, OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA, AND A STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAKER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POSSIBLY COOL UPWELLING WATER AND SOME LIMITED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/Carl225126302/status/1661752588323246080?t=_rybScAzPpBt5ZsqFMeSXQ&s=19

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 02W HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 155 KNOTS BUT COULD EASILY GO HIGHER. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING BY TAU 72. STY 02W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 72, STY 02W WILL TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TAIWAN AND WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST, OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA, AND A STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAKER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POSSIBLY COOL UPWELLING WATER AND SOME LIMITED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

Very strong wording from the JTWC, holy moly.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1661766825384845313

[Hurricane2022]

[cheezyWXguy]

https://imageshack.com/i/pn3UpEarj
https://imageshack.com/i/pn04P9obg

That storm’s structure is built like a brick house. Wouldn’t expect any ERCs for a while

[cycloneye]

Up to 155kt.

WP, 02, 2023052518, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1405E, 155, 903, ST

[Hurricane2022]

[Hurricane2022]

02W MAWAR 230525 1200 14.7N 141.6E WPAC 150 908
02W MAWAR 230525 0600 14.5N 142.8E WPAC 145 913

[SconnieCane]

What a beaut.

I'm watching Mawar with some interest for downstream impacts to the jet stream after it recurves into the westerlies; kinda hoping it helps shake up the pattern over the central US which has been very stagnant and quiescent since about mid-April. Very little in the way of thunderstorm and tornado activity, when May is supposed to be for land-based storm chasing what September is to the Atlantic hurricane season.