WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[InfernoFlameCat]

Mawar is looking picture perfect! Definitely one of the prettiest storms this decade

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1661824494665605122

[aspen]

Mawar’s CDO seems to be slightly cooling. For most of today, I’ve felt that Mawar has reached a pretty steady state where it probably won’t intensify much more, but if that CDO cooling continues, it’ll likely be a sign of further intensification into a 160-165 kt beast. It won’t take that much for it to go sub-900 since it’s already at 903 mbar.

[Hurricane2022]

Super Typhoon 02W (T2302 Mawar)
2100Z - 155 kt 903 mb JTWC

[Yellow Evan]

Classic upper-elechon WPAC system. Eye near 20C with thick CMG ring so likely around 160 knots or so.

[FireRat]

Now that is a BEAST ladies and gentlemen, holy cow! WPAC doesn't care what time of year it is

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1661878242020831232

[Sciencerocks]

[Subtrop]

TPPN10 PGTW 260042

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR)

B. 25/2350Z

C. 15.06N

D. 139.16E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WELL DEFINED EYE EMBD IN 80NM
CDO, AND ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 8.0. MET/PT AGREES.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/1605Z 14.78N 140.72E ATMS
25/1631Z 14.87N 140.73E GPMI
25/1646Z 14.90N 140.62E AMS2
25/1656Z 14.85N 140.60E ATMS


CVACH

[Guamphoon]

Guam didn't dodge the bullet, we still got hit, but we dodged the Mawar howitzer with that luckily timed EWRC. If the storm looked like it does now when it hit, I probably wouldn't be posting right now. My concrete house would survive, but I think the internet would be down for a bit.

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎260000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TY ‎2302 ‎MAWAR ‎(2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎260000UTC ‎15.1N ‎139.2E ‎GOOD
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎13KT
PRES ‎ ‎905HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎115KT
GUST ‎ ‎165KT
50KT ‎ ‎100NM
30KT ‎ ‎240NM ‎NORTHEAST ‎210NM ‎SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎261200UTC ‎15.8N ‎136.3E ‎25NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎14KT
PRES ‎ ‎905HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎115KT
GUST ‎ ‎165KT
24HF ‎ ‎270000UTC ‎16.3N ‎133.4E ‎35NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎14KT
PRES ‎ ‎905HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎115KT
GUST ‎ ‎165KT
48HF ‎ ‎280000UTC ‎17.5N ‎128.6E ‎60NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎905HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎115KT
GUST ‎ ‎165KT
72HF ‎ ‎290000UTC ‎19.4N ‎125.7E ‎100NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎08KT
PRES ‎ ‎925HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎100KT
GUST ‎ ‎140KT
96HF ‎ ‎300000UTC ‎20.7N ‎124.3E ‎140NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎945HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎085KT
GUST ‎ ‎120KT
120HF ‎310000UTC ‎21.5N ‎124.7E ‎200NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎ALMOST ‎STATIONARY
PRES ‎ ‎960HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎075KT
GUST ‎ ‎105KT ‎=

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1661898860976029696

[Hayabusa]

02W MAWAR 230526 0000 15.1N 139.3E WPAC 160 897

[Hurricane2022]

02W MAWAR 230526 0000 15.1N 139.3E WPAC 160 897

I was thinking they would upgrade it to 165 - 170 kt but that's fine

[Hayabusa]

It unofficially matches Typhoon Phyllis for the strongest May typhoon in winds but that was in 1958. Next strongest was Damrey from 2000 peaking 155 kts.

[Hurricane2022]

The 03Z warning has come very early today..

[Hayabusa]

SAR from 4 hours ago 151 kts

[MarioProtVI]

This thing is a POWERHOUSE. Guam got lucky but they still got hit bad. Good chance we’re seeing the strongest storm 2023 has to offer globally this year. Sure we’ll likely see a few more C5s in the WPac but none on the order of intensity as Mawar is.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1661904129252528128

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Structure and overall insane powerhouse march through the Pacific reminds me of Irma.