WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[FireRat]

Saw this earlier today on twitter haha, what a beast!!!

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1662187235758751749



This EWRC of Mawar is the best EWRC i've seen. It managed to mantain a +10°C & very stable and circular eye without wobbles despite de Eyewall Replacement. Truly an Incredible, Spetacular and Amazing storm.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1662187235758751749?t=_7XDAHsubqcV4Pu5J5vaGg&s=19
This EWRC of Mawar is the best EWRC i've seen. It managed to mantain a +10°C & very stable and circular eye without wobbles despite de Eyewall Replacement. Truly an Incredible, Spetacular and Amazing storm.

Looks like, as some predicted, we got an eyewall meld. I guess it’s possible Mawar could restrengthen tonight into tomorrow now that the meld is over, but it’s quickly running out of time before atmospheric conditions start to become marginal at best.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1662187235758751749?t=_7XDAHsubqcV4Pu5J5vaGg&s=19
This EWRC of Mawar is the best EWRC i've seen. It managed to mantain a +10°C & very stable and circular eye without wobbles despite de Eyewall Replacement. Truly an Incredible, Spetacular and Amazing storm.

Looks like, as some predicted, we got an eyewall meld. I guess it’s possible Mawar could restrengthen tonight into tomorrow now that the meld is over, but it’s quickly running out of time before atmospheric conditions start to become marginal at best.

I’m not convinced it’s an eyewall meld, but it’s a pretty seamless ERC nonetheless. The inner eyewall has remained remarkably stable through the process and is only now starting to drop out. Concentric eyewalls becoming quite clear on IR, which I don’t really remember seeing that distinctly with Irma’s meld.

[Hurricane2022]

The eye just needs to become larger on VIS/IR now

[Sciencerocks]

[dexterlabio]

Hope someone makes a research paper regarding traditional EWRC vs. eyewall meld. It's a very interesting topic to cover.

[mrbagyo]

02W MAWAR 230527 0000 16.4N 133.3E WPAC 135 922
downgraded to high end cat 4

[canebeard]

Hope someone makes a research paper regarding traditional EWRC vs. eyewall meld. It's a very interesting topic to cover.

I guess the question is: why in some circumstances does the moat become moot?

[Ptarmigan]

HWRF peaks it at 871.5 mb, while winds at 165 knots
https://i.imgur.com/lLaTl7m.png
https://i.imgur.com/sIwpCvR.png

That would be challenging Super Typhoon Tip in terms of intensity.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://imageshack.com/i/poLoov1Mj
The eye just needs to become larger on VIS/IR now

Man, seeing this I might have to shift my vote to meld. Not as quick or clean as Irma’s, but it looks like that outer eyewall contracted and took over before the inner even fell away.

[Hayabusa]

AMSU made a 169 knots estimate this 00Z

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 02W
Saturday 27may23 Time: 0052 UTC
Latitude: 16.44 Longitude: 133.08
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 12 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 901 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 169 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 7.55
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 8.01
RMW: 41 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1008
Satellite: NOAA-93
ATCF data for Month: 05 Day: 27 Time (UTC): 0000

[dexterlabio]

Something's going on with the CDO, not sure but could this be dry air intrusion?

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Models seem to be indicating Taiwan could be in for trouble down the road whether it’s the remnants or Mawar just going straight west into Taiwan as the HWRF is suggesting (after parking just offshore before moving inland shortly after). Could be a big flood problem.

[REDHurricane]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1662199725007966210

[Hayabusa]

It's really frustrating there are no SMAP fixes since May 24th especially when it became 160 knots.

[Hayabusa]

It's really frustrating there are no SMAP fixes since May 24th especially when it became 160 knots.

Finally an SMAP fix just came in, fix was from today at 0847Z, 148 knots pretty high in contrast to how it looks

WP, 02, 202305270847, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1660N, 13220E, , 1, 138, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 253, 139, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202305270847, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1660N, 13220E, , 1, 138, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 125, 60, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
WP, 02, 202305270847, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1660N, 13220E, , 1, 138, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 66, 35, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , W, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

[wxman57]

Not nearly as impressive on satellite now. Dvorak indicating 100-115 kts. Maybe closer to 115 kts than 100 kts.