2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[SFLcane]

fyi long range CFS has multiple hits on SFL one coming north from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region. ** As always take with caution**



Comes north from the Caribbean..

[Iceresistance]

fyi long range CFS has muitple hits on SFL one coming norht from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region.

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif

Why are we trying to forecast storms in July and August?

[SFLcane]

fyi long range CFS has muitple hits on SFL one coming norht from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region.

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif

Why are we trying to forecast storms in July and August?

Why not that is why its called a long range model. To each there own use with caution but i find it interesting to look at.

[SFLcane]

Didn't know were to post this but i " highly" recommend to read. WeatherTiger's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/202 ... ne-outlook

[AnnularCane]

fyi long range CFS has muitple hits on SFL one coming norht from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region.

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif

Why are we trying to forecast storms in July and August?

Gotta keep ourselves entertained in the preseason somehow.

[FireRat]

Didn't know were to post this but i " highly" recommend to read. WeatherTiger's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/202 ... ne-outlook

Wow, awesome post indeed!

[cycloneye]

That is a great and complete analysis from WeatherTiger. Adrian, this was the thread to post it.

[SconnieCane]

Didn't know were to post this but i " highly" recommend to read. WeatherTiger's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for May 2023

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/202 ... ne-outlook

Love the writing on that. The fighting/wrestling metaphors also call to mind this classic (can't get YouTube embed tags to work):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0-pHnykC9s

[Cpv17]

To sum up that article it basically just says what we already know. Expect a near normal season but maybe slightly above normal.

[NotSparta]

fyi long range CFS has multiple hits on SFL one coming north from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region. ** As always take with caution**

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif

Comes north from the Caribbean..

https://i.postimg.cc/pTM5fQpN/cfs44.gif

This thread is out to day 16, not day 70

[cycloneye]

fyi long range CFS has multiple hits on SFL one coming north from the caribbean and this tc from the mdr region. ** As always take with caution**

https://i.postimg.cc/hvGRJw82/cfs.gif

Comes north from the Caribbean..

https://i.postimg.cc/pTM5fQpN/cfs44.gif

This thread is out to day 16, not day 70

Merged those posts from that thread to this one.

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe this is a sign that unlike the last two years or so, 2023 might be a generally much more favorable year for global major cyclone activity. There have already been 8 of these this year, and it's still only May. Not sure if it means anything for the Atlantic in particular, but just something to keep in mind going forward.

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1661490909723209729

[cycloneye]

2004 as analog?

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1662413021430308865

[Category5Kaiju]

Took this screenshot image just now from Google Earth; Africa's getting active...

[cycloneye]

Great twitter thread 11/11 from Yellow Evan.

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1663621085395574785

[Hurricane2022]

Great twitter thread 11/11 from Yellow Evan.

https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1663621085395574785

Really an excellent thread to understand what can be happening and what can happen. I have a forecast with a somewhat higher numbers (16/8/3 ACE 135) than there, because I still think that this anomalous (and continuous!) warming of the Atlantic could reverse some of the effects of El Niño.

[chaser1]

Interestingly, there's only 24 hr.'s left for the 2023 North Atlantic Season Poll and it just seems that this year's poll having the lowest participation that I remember, suggests that a vast number of people are primarily disinterested in the 2023 season likely as a result of their severe "El Nino - Season Cancel bias".

[JetFuel_SE]

Interestingly, there's only 24 hr.'s left for the 2023 North Atlantic Season Poll and it just seems that this year's poll having the lowest participation that I remember, suggests that a vast number of people are primarily disinterested in the 2023 season likely as a result of their severe "El Nino - Season Cancel bias".

And then we have UKMO model, which seemingly got the Atlantic and EPAC mixed up. 306 ACE ceiling lmao

[chaser1]

Interestingly, there's only 24 hr.'s left for the 2023 North Atlantic Season Poll and it just seems that this year's poll having the lowest participation that I remember, suggests that a vast number of people are primarily disinterested in the 2023 season likely as a result of their severe "El Nino - Season Cancel bias".

And then we have UKMO model, which seemingly got the Atlantic and EPAC mixed up. 306 ACE ceiling lmao

Well, yeah..... and then you have "that" Go figure LOL. King Kong (El Nino) vs Godzilla (+AMO) - the battle of the titans. Quite reasonably the outcome may be less of a definative "win" for either atmospheric variable, and more of quirky twist as a result of both variables (such as 20 really weak named storms, with an average life span of under 72 hours, or the Bahamas becoming this year's MDR with nearly all storm tracks off to the East & Northeast. Maybe 2023 will ultimately be more like "The Spawn of King Kong & Godzilla"