ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2023053118, , BEST, 0, 264N, 859W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al912023,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912023.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[jfk08c]

I might be going crazy but I swear I can see on radar the largest band feeding into some vorticity, it's getting sheared apart but still impressive

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

Looks like the shear monster will probably prevent this one from developing. Probably the next 24-48 hrs is the best chance for a TD but think the odds of that are low at the moment. None of the models are really showing significant strengthening. Early season storm struggles.

[Sciencerocks]

I might be going crazy but I swear I can see on radar the largest band feeding into some vorticity, it's getting sheared apart but still impressive

It does appear to be an ill defined LLC around ~26/86. A lot of shear is keeping it bare!

[Nimbus]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/9189/LxyW9I.gif

You can see the lightning strikes along a narrow feeder that is riding up over St Petersburg Florida currently.
Not very impressive about an inch an hour rainfall rate and no wind to speak of.
Octopus might have a little more later if the shear lets up though.

[Stormlover1970]

Very Tropical feel outside but I agree too much shear. Could get heavy rain from the bands training

[wxman57]

Just a weak swirl. Nothing to get alarmed about. I'm even taking a vacation day Friday (Shhh! Don't tell the tropics!)

[AtlanticWind]

Just a weak swirl. Nothing to get alarmed about. I'm even taking a vacation day Friday (Shhh! Don't tell the tropics!)

Thats it , putting up shutters now

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the
northeast of the center. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the
system meanders over the eastern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to
become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts
southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds
over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Thursday, if necessary. Additional information on the
rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Stormlover1970]

Swirl south of the panhandle

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2023060100, , BEST, 0, 267N, 857W, 20, 1008, LO

[wxman57]

I'm not so sure it's going to move across Florida now. All models (GFS, CMC, ECMWF, ICON) take it south toward western Cuba by Saturday where it dissipates. May not even bring much rain to Florida. Development seems quite unlikely.

[jasons2k]

My relatives in the bay area were happy to get some much-needed rain today.

[Sciencerocks]

[AtlanticWind]

Hwrf gets system down to 993 mb

[Sciencerocks]

Convection looking better organized so I wouldn't discount the possibility of this becoming a depression or maybe a low end tropical storm during the next couple of days.....I'd say 40%.

[JetFuel_SE]

Convection looking better organized so I wouldn't discount the possibility of this becoming a depression or maybe a low end tropical storm during the next couple of days.....I'd say 40%.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8238/zfvkJf.gif

Continues to look good, 20/20 is way too low for this, I'd say it's closer to 50/50, probably higher.

[GCANE]

Getting hit by quite a bit of shear now