ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Welcome to the first day of Hurricane Season, 91L looking better than I had thought this morning.
Good chance that the recon will find at least a TD this afternoon if storms maintain during the day.
Good chance that the recon will find at least a TD this afternoon if storms maintain during the day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Up to 50% this morning.
BNT20 KNHC 011145
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become
better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development
over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or
storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional
development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today,
if necessary.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
BNT20 KNHC 011145
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become
better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development
over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or
storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional
development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today,
if necessary.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Effects from this disturbance in South Florida this weekend.
https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1664245221880922118
https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1664245221880922118
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
I am fascinated by the southward movement that is forecast.
NDG wrote:Up to 50% this morning.
BNT20 KNHC 011145
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become
better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development
over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or
storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional
development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today,
if necessary.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
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- cycloneye
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- Posts: 139493
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Up to 30kt and pressure down to 1007 mbs.
AL, 91, 2023060112, , BEST, 0, 279N, 864W, 30, 1007, LO
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
tronbunny wrote:I am fascinated by the southward movement that is forecast.
It's always said that once a storm enters the Gulf it's going to hit someone on the coast but the 06Z GFS shows the one way (outside of dissipation) that would be proved untrue as it sends it south through the Yucatan Channel.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
GOES-16 red band loop shows a lot of convection happening and with the rotation now been firmly underneath the convection the rotation is now imparting rotation on to the convective clouds. The models are looking like it will head south over warm waters I think it will improve
Source - https://col.st/YIzrg
Source - https://col.st/YIzrg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Vacationing with family in Fort Morgan, AL right now so I’m basically looking at this from our porch. Happy first day of the season everyone! Would be kinda nice to have Arlene appear on June 1.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
If the LLC is tucked under the deep convection I believe we have TD 1. Banding features, deep convection, and pressure down to 1007 mb would meet the criteria.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
ChrisH-UK wrote:GOES-16 red band loop shows a lot of convection happening and with the rotation now been firmly underneath the convection the rotation is now imparting rotation on to the convective clouds. The models are looking like it will head south over warm waters I think it will improve
Source - https://col.st/YIzrg
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7124/U9mHkO.gif [/url]
I think the only reason it's starting to pop is that it found the only pocket of low shear in the Gulf. If it moves south out of it, it will probably deteriorate pretty quickly as it enters the sheared environment again
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- AnnularCane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
HurricaneBelle wrote:tronbunny wrote:I am fascinated by the southward movement that is forecast.
It's always said that once a storm enters the Gulf it's going to hit someone on the coast but the 06Z GFS shows the one way (outside of dissipation) that would be proved untrue as it sends it south through the Yucatan Channel.
Another wrong-way storm?
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
We will have no storm before it's time.
AnnularCane wrote:HurricaneBelle wrote:tronbunny wrote:I am fascinated by the southward movement that is forecast.
It's always said that once a storm enters the Gulf it's going to hit someone on the coast but the 06Z GFS shows the one way (outside of dissipation) that would be proved untrue as it sends it south through the Yucatan Channel.
Another wrong-way storm?
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- lrak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Sunday surf machine for S TX
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AKA karl
Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Also
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts on this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. My posts are my basic observations and are definitely not backed by any "well some" meteorological knowledge. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
I’d like to know what is pushing eventually south? Is it high pressure pushing down on it or just weak steering currents.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
boca wrote:I’d like to know what is pushing eventually south? Is it high pressure pushing down on it or just weak steering currents.
I've also been wondering this
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