ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

[chaser1]

Perhaps an upgrade to TD (assuming a fully closed off LLC and not a very sharp trough at the surface), and then hold off on any potential TS upgrade until later this evening or early morning pending any total collapse of convection.

[THC_Scientist]

Looks like it will peak within the next 12 hours or so as it tracks slowly southward. Will likely dissipate near western Cuba on Saturday. No Florida threat.

Lock the thread, the king has spoken.

Glad to have you back for another season

[ronjon]

When recon gets there shortly they will probably find a closed circulation at about 1007 mb's.
Shear forecast and dry air over the gulf are comforting factors but I don't know if the NHC can just ignore recon data because a LLC is forecast to dissipate.

They'll name it if it meets the criteria regardless if it has a short life. Almost don't need recon to name a TD now with buoy reports and SAT. Recon should confirm a TD or TS shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

When recon gets there shortly they will probably find a closed circulation at about 1007 mb's.
Shear forecast and dry air over the gulf are comforting factors but I don't know if the NHC can just ignore recon data because a LLC is forecast to dissipate.

They'll name it if it meets the criteria regardless if it has a short life. Almost don't need recon to name a TD now with buoy reports and SAT. Recon should confirm a TD or TS shortly.

should have been one at 5am.

[MGC]

Sure didn't think this was going to develop in the Gulf......guess I need to heat up the oven for my first taste of crow this season. Looks like a TD to me....we shall see.....MGC

[TheBigO]

I depart on a cruise Sunday that heads to Cozumel on Wednesday, hopefully we don’t have too pass through too much a stormy mess as we navigate the Florida straits on Tuesday.

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

TS upgrade most likely coming for 5pm.

[Nimbus]

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like we will have our 2nd TS and 1st officially named TS of the season in a couple of hours. Curious to see how early season pans out as El Nino seasons can get off to a hot start before fading in later months. Then again we have never really seen a configuration quite like this heading into the season. Interesting times ahead.

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[wxman57]

Recon found enough wind for TS Arlene. It really won't have much of any impact on Florida, as all squalls should remain west of the Peninsula. Will be dissipating Saturday near western Cuba. We have issued our first advisory.

[Aric Dunn]

Appears the center is getting tugged/pulled slightly to NE with that incoming burst of convection.

[Hammy]

Doubt this gets upgraded given it seems like it's open to the south.

[tropicwatch]

Doubt this gets upgraded given it seems like it's open to the south.

They were able to close of the center with west winds being found.

[Ubuntwo]

Doubt this gets upgraded given it seems like it's open to the south.

It is closed, if only barely. West winds of just a few knots south of center. I could see them looking for a little more definition - it's pretty borderline

[Aric Dunn]

Doubt this gets upgraded given it seems like it's open to the south.

It is closed, if only barely. West winds of just a few knots south of center. I could see them looking for a little more definition - it's pretty borderline
https://i.imgur.com/LTGy2fA.png

it is def closed.. large swaths of west winds. the center is just reorganizing at the moment. it is of course tilted and this happens often.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1664356972450160640

[zzzh]

AL022023 - Tropical Depression TWO

[Blown Away]

It has the "look" of a lopsided TD/TS IMO. Good season total #'s pumper!

[galaxy401]

Well the Atlantic isn't wasting any time to spawn a new storm. Definitely looks like a storm now.