ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical

[DorkyMcDorkface]

AL, 02, 2023060118, , BEST, 0, 281N, 865W, 30, 1007, TD

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1664366155266670592

[Sciencerocks]

Based on the data I'd have gone tropical storm with this and I fully suspect that post season this will get 6 hours added to its life span.

[AnnularCane]

I almost feel like I should know this, but it's over water, so...what are those little purple triangles or rectangles I see popping up in the bands sometimes? I'm guessing a warning of some sort but I'm not sure what.

[Nimbus]

Looks like it will peak within the next 12 hours or so as it tracks slowly southward. Will likely dissipate near western Cuba on Saturday. No Florida threat.

What about rain out of this,do you see that being a concern.

A local wx station in Clearwater Florida is reporting 1.93" an hour precip again in a T storm tonight total accumulation isn't much more than an inch but it adds up over several days. I doubt there will be any training bands that cause dangerous flooding but the POPS may be on the low side due to the circulation shear picking up moisture in the late afternoons till it gets far enough south.

[Hammy]

This is not a tropical depression. Either it doesn't meet the criteria for upgrade, or the winds make it a tropical storm if it does meet the criteria for advisories. It seems like they're splitting the difference in the most bizarre way I've seen in awhile.

[wxman57]

Convection is now weakening near the exposed LLC. Perhaps it won't make it to Arlene?

[MetroMike]

Maybe we need to give the NAM model some clout this season.
Kind of saw this.

[wxman57]

Maybe we need to give the NAM model some clout this season.
Kind of saw this.

NAM predicted a NW movement with hurricane just offshore SE LA tomorrow. No, NAM still sucks. This is what the global models predicted - weak low moving south toward western Cuba.

[AJC3]

Folks. The mods and admins of this board are having to deal with this more times than we should.

From here on out, if you can't keep your disagreements with NHC factual and respectful, rather than with snark and indignation, you'll get a board warning. The second time will be a 7-day vacation.

This includes long-time members who should definitely know better.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/6PpJbGg.gif

What a mess
Certainly the ugliest Atlantic storm since "TS" Teresa in 2021

[Sciencerocks]

https://i.imgur.com/6PpJbGg.gif

What a mess
Certainly the ugliest Atlantic storm since "TS" Teresa in 2021

Seeing strong southwesterly shear decoupling the LLC from the convection. It is rare for a system to strengthen or recouple while being driven southward close to the direction of the shear. A wait in see.

[Iceresistance]

Well, this took me by surprise. It was 30% this morning.

[Nimbus]

https://i.imgur.com/6PpJbGg.gif

What a mess
Certainly the ugliest Atlantic storm since "TS" Teresa in 2021

Seeing strong southwesterly shear decoupling the LLC from the convection. It is rare for a system to strengthen or recouple while being driven southward close to the direction of the shear. A wait in see.

Outflow boundaries and dry air tonight.
The shear is blowing the tops off to the northeast so until that diminishes they really don't need to name it.

[chaser1]

Right now, it sorta looks like TD2 threw-up all over the Eastern Gulf. Look, the system gained a good deal of orgaization and it's TD classification seemed reasonable enough. I think it's a good thing that the trigger to name it, had not been pulled yet however. It's a shallow system in at best, in an environment of barely marginally conducive conditions. Let's see what it looks like in the a.m. At least there's no blaming Uncle SAL for its condition. My guess is that it's weaker state might actually enhance a broader impact of precip for much of Florida, as opposed to a smaller better organized TS might.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

It certainly doesn't look too healthy now. Wind shear will be increasing as it moves south, so maybe it lost its shot to become Arlene? Look at those very fast-moving high clouds from SW-NE across southern Florida. That's good. Still, I lost my day off tomorrow...

[Category5Kaiju]

I’ve tracked enough storms the past recent several years that I’m not personally going to call it a day for TD2 becoming Arlene just quite yet

I think one thing I’ve learned especially with these weak pop up storms is that as fast as they seem to collapse during the day they just flare up again in the night

We’ll see of course