2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

GFS, EC, and ICON all have very strong westerly wind shear across the Gulf next week. Significant development isn't likely. Strong shear won't prevent the development of an exposed LLC, though.

[SFLcane]

GFS, EC, and ICON all have very strong westerly wind shear across the Gulf next week. Significant development isn't likely. Strong shear won't prevent the development of an exposed LLC, though.

We surely not looking for a hurricane in earlyJune just rain potential which is there 3-5 inches across FL peninsula.

[ChrisH-UK]

GFS, ECMWF and CMC do show signs of a disturbance forming up off the coast of Florida in the medium term. These are the Okubo-Weiss model run form all three, Okubo-Weiss is a model use to model eddies in liquids and as the atmosphere is a liquid it applies well to detect eddies and rotations in the atmosphere such as cyclones. The models do show something happening but at this stage I would say keep a eye on it that's all.

[JetFuel_SE]

The Experimental GFDL SHiELD seems to want a small (S)TC near the Azores.


There are also a few GFS and CMC ensemble members favoring something near/in the Caribbean in around 5 days.

[wxman57]

There's a chance a sheared TS could develop north of the Bahamas within 7 days. NHC's 7-day outlook isn't mentioning anything. No significant U.S. threat, just a little rain for Florida this weekend as it passes across.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1663500576699629569




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1663505528050405379

[cycloneye]

The TAFB brief analysis of that GOM area.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1663533764004446210

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1663500576699629569

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1663505528050405379

Several EPS members showing pressure in the 960-979 range...

[REDHurricane]

06z NAM looking pretty interesting...

[Hurricane2022]

06z NAM looking pretty interesting...

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZTY5MWEzNzg4MjRjZTdjYzFhZWM0ODFmOWM1MjEwNjk1NWVhMGNlOCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZzX2dpZklkJmN0PWc/oTicLepcU0YTm9vFSL/giphy.gif

Of course, since it's a NAM forecast to a sea storm...

[REDHurricane]

06z NAM looking pretty interesting...

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZTY5MWEzNzg4MjRjZTdjYzFhZWM0ODFmOWM1MjEwNjk1NWVhMGNlOCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZzX2dpZklkJmN0PWc/oTicLepcU0YTm9vFSL/giphy.gif

Of course, since it's a NAM forecast to a sea storm...

Looks like the NAM actually ended up being spot-on for this one lol

[Category5Kaiju]

[AlanSnyder35]

https://i.imgur.com/puckAO0.png

lol Funny South American vort Bias finally peaks it's head

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665064580840669184



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1665070888264278017

[Hurricane2022]

[Zonacane]

Just GOOFUS things

[cycloneye]

He is ready for anything.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1665506956247957510

[Category5Kaiju]

Seems like there's some sort of Central American Gyre that gets going down near Central America several weeks from now? Leading the GFS to generate that Atlantic storm then?

[wxman57]

Seems like there's some sort of Central American Gyre that gets going down near Central America several weeks from now? Leading the GFS to generate that Atlantic storm then?

I was wondering when the GFS would start doing this. It's a little late this season. I'm not concerned yet. Give it another 10 days and we'll see if there is any reason to suspect development.

[jfk08c]

The GFS spitting out a storm in fantasy land is nothing new but I have to admit, the run to run consistency of development makes me think there's something there to keep an eye on. Normally it would make it a couple runs and then drop off but this has been a multi day trend. Time will tell